GDP Archive

A very British bubble for Mr Brown

A very British bubble for Mr Brown Leader Sunday December 16 2007 The Observer The buzz words in the world of finance these days are ‘moral hazard’. That is economist-speak for what happens when people who have engaged in risky business and fallen foul of market forces are let off the hook. ...Read More

A Rescue Plan for the Dollar

A Rescue Plan for the Dollar By Ronald McKinnon and Steve H. Hanke The Wall Street Journal, December 27, 2007 Central banks ended the year with a spectacular injection of liquidity to lubricate the economy. On Dec. 18, the European Central Bank alone pumped $502 billion — 130% of Switzerland’s annual GDP ...Read More

Friday mid day

Food, crude, metals up, dollar down, inflation up all over the world, well beyond CB ‘comfort levels.’ Nov new home sales continue weak, though there are probably fewer ‘desirable’ new homes priced to sell, and with starts are down the new supply will continue to be low for a while. The December ...Read More

Italian budget deficit down towards 2%

Falling deficits in general in the Eurozone due to the growth rate of GDP combined and the countercyclical tax structure. Aggregate demand from non government credit expansion (and some from exports) is supporting GDP as support from government deficit spending wanes. This can go on for quite a while as consumer leverage ...Read More

Saudi/Fed teamwork

Looks like markets are still trading with the assumption that as the Saudis/Russians hike prices the Fed will accommodate with rate cut. That’s a pretty good incentive for more Saudi/Russian oil price hikes, as if they needed any! Likewise, the US is a large exporter of grains and foods. Those prices are ...Read More

Strong gdp and high credit losses

CNBC just had a session on trying to reconcile high gdp with large credit losses. Seems they are now seeing the consumer clipping along at a +2.8% pace for Q4. No need to rehash my ongoing position that most if not all the losses announced in the last 6 months would have ...Read More

Re: Is $700 billion a big number

(an email and an article) On Dec 23, 2007 5:37 PM, Russell Huntley wrote: > > > > For a very bearish take on the credit crisis, see: Crisis may make 1929 look > a ‘walk in the park’. The article includes a $700 billion loss estimate from > the head of ...Read More

Re: liquidity or insolvency–does it matter?

(email with Randall Wray) On Dec 15, 2007 9:05 PM, Wray, Randall wrote: > By ________ > > This time the magic isn’t working. > > Why not? Because the problem with the markets isn’t just a lack of liquidity – there’s also a fundamental problem of solvency. > > Let me ...Read More

Hearing economists revising q4 gdp up by about 1.5%

Getting word that many economists are upping Q4 GDP estimates by 1.5% after today’s numbers. Forecasts now up to around 2%. ♥ ...Read More

2007-11-29 US Economic Releases

GCP Annualized (3QP) Survey 4.8% Actual 4.9% Prior 3.9% Revised n/a Keeps coming in above expectations. Personal Consumption (3QP) Survey 2.9% Actual 2.7% Prior 3.0% Revised n/a A touch higher bust still seems very low. GDP Price Index (3QP) Survey 0.8% Actual 0.9% Prior 0.8% Revised n/a A touch higher bust still ...Read More