This has been know to be associated with the housing cycle: Framing Lumber Prices Down 30% Year-over-year This has taken a dive recently: Global economy enters ‘synchronised slowdown’ (F) The global economy has entered a “synchronised slowdown” which may be difficult to reverse in 2019, according to the latest update of a tracking index compiled […]
Category Archives: Financial Times
ADP, Light vehicle sales, Wolf quote
This is ADP’s forecast of tomorrow’s employment number. We’ll see tomorrow how well accurate they were: A bit higher than expected but down for 2017 vs 2016 (negative growth): Highlights Unit vehicle sales proved solid in December, at a 17.9 million annualized rate vs 17.5 million in November. Outside of October and September, which were […]
JOLTS, IBD survey, Trump comments
I read this as weakening demand and employers unwilling to pay up to hire, and maybe even posting openings to replace existing workers at lower wages: Highlights Job openings held steady at a very abundant 6.082 million in August while hirings remained far behind, at 5.430 million. In an early indication of full employment, the […]
Factory orders, ISM services, China investments, ISM NY
Up nicely but not so good excluding aircraft orders, which are highly volatile: Highlights Factory orders surged 3.0 percent in June but were skewed higher by a more than doubling in monthly aircraft orders. Excluding transportation equipment, a reading that excludes aircraft, orders actually fell 0.2 percent in the month following a 0.1 decline in […]
NY state mfg survey, Housing index, Lending, White House headline
Trumped up expectations reversing? Highlights Activity in the New York manufacturing region is flattening out this month following a run of unusually strong growth. May’s Empire State index came in at a lower-than-expected minus 1.0 with new orders also moving into the negative column to minus 4.4. Unfilled orders, which were very strong in April […]
Housing starts, Philidelphia Fed survey, NY Fed on household debt
Still depressed by historical standards, and still seem to me to be going sideways, as per the charts: Highlights Housing starts did fall 2.6 percent in January but the 1.246 million annualized rate is well above Econoday’s consensus for 1.232 million. Details show a 1.9 percent rise for single-family starts to a 823,000 rate, offset […]
Trumped up expectations, Chicago PMI, Consumer sentiment, Redbook retail sales, Executive orders, GDP comment, Trump comments, Income and spending chart
Trumped up expectations vs ‘hard data’: Highlights January was a flat month for the Chicago PMI which could manage only 50.3, virtually at the breakeven 50.0 level that indications no change from the prior month. New orders have now joined backlog orders in contraction in what is a negative combination for future production and employment. […]
GDP, Rents, Saudis
This line shows total GDP growth over the prior 10 years. It makes the point as to just how sudden the latest drop off was and how severe it continues to be. It’s just screaming ‘lack of aggregate demand’ begging a fiscal relaxation of maybe 5% of GDP annually for a while. Bottom line: It’s […]
Corporate profits, Q4 GDP 3rd revision, Credit contraction and commercial property articles
Corporate Profits Highlights Held down by declines in the petroleum and chemical industries, corporate profits in the fourth quarter came in at $1.640 trillion, down a year-on-year 3.6 percent. Profits are after tax without inventory valuation or capital consumption adjustments. Revised up, but seems the odd looking spike in ‘recreational services’ that alone added most […]
Brent Spot Chart, China, Atlanta Fed
Looks a lot more negative since the October 5 Saudi price cuts than the futures markets. These price are more indicative of prices of physical oil vs financial portfolio activities: Note the lack of results of ‘monetary policy’: China’s October factory, services surveys show economy still wobbly Nov 1 (Reuters) — Activity in China’s manufacturing […]