New home sales, Chicago Fed survey, Lumber prices, US survey

Trump looks to be losing by a substantial margin at the moment, which means to me that there won’t be a fiscal adjustment before January’s new Congress, and without a sufficient majority in the Senate all initiatives may be blocked indefinitely. Most likely new home sales at best return to their pre covid growth path: […]

Income, Consumption Chicago PMI, Trade, GDP forecasts, France, Canada, India

Continues to decelerate from the tariffs, and this is before the virus: Also decelerating before the virus: Before the virus, the downtrend is obvious as it remains below 50: Exports and imports both slowing as global trade continues to wind down: GDP forecast to decelerate, before the virus: Unsold inventory piling up: Gone negative well […]

Trade, Housing affordability, China, BOJ equity buying, Retail comment

Imports and exports both decelerating indicates a weaker global economy, and weak US retail sales indicates domestic consumer spending growth is slowing: Highlights First-quarter GDP looks to get a major boost from improvement in the nation’s trade deficit which, for February, came in at much lower-than-expected $49.4 billion. And the positives are more than just […]

Trade, Factory orders, Vehicle sales, UK service sector, German PMI

Deficit growing despite tariffs. Could be J curve effect: Highlights A slight 0.1 percent decline in exports and a slight 0.2 percent gain in imports made for a sizable 1.7 percent deepening in the nation’s trade deficit in October to $55.5 billion which is just outside Econoday’s consensus range. The deficit with China was very […]

Construction spending, Trade

Highlights A solid rise in residential spending offset a mixed showing for non-housing components and made for a 0.1 percent July rise in overall construction spending to barely come within Econoday’s consensus range. Residential spending rose 0.6 percent but July’s gain was entirely centered in home improvements which jumped 2.1 percent to offset outright declines […]

Trade, Employment, ISM, Japan swf

Larger than expected which also means q2 GDP will be revised down some: Highlights The nation’s trade deficit proved a little deeper than expected in June,, at $46.3 billion vs Econoday’s consensus for $45.6 billion. After a run of strength going back to February, exports posted a 0.7 percent decline to $213.8 billion in the […]

Trade, Consumer credit

The trade deficit narrowed but due to a drop in consumer spending on imported cell phones, which doesn’t bode well for retail sales, which are under pressure from the reduced growth of real disposable personal income. And the widening trade gap with the euro area is fundamentally euro friendly even as fears of Italian politics […]

Light vehicle sales, Trump tariffs

Blaming interest rates for a decline that started about two years ago: U.S. Car Sales Fall as Credit Terms, Higher Payments Squeeze Buyers (WSJ) Overall U.S. vehicle sales dropped 2.4% in February, to 1.3 million, according to Autodata Corp. J.D. Power estimates incentive spending in February—averaging $3,850 per vehicle—was down slightly from the same month […]

Mtg apps, Jolts, Trade

Still going nowhere: Highlights The volume of purchase applications for home mortgages remained unchanged on a seasonally adjusted basis in the February 2 week, while refinancing applications rose 1.0 percent from the previous week despite the headwind of rising interest rates. Unadjusted, purchase applications increased 7 percent from the previous week, though the year-on-year gain […]