Aggregate Demand Archive

Mtg Purchase Applications

Obvious that the end of the $8,000 first time home buyer credit caused a spike that has been more than reversed, much like November. The question is how much that pull back, along with the euro and China issues, will slow what has been a moderately growing US economy. With demand leakages ...Read More

Job sector trends

[Skip to the end] Right, if you look at unemployment and the output gap in general as a % of the non government sectors The drop is probably close to double the headline numbers. This was a serious collapse of aggregate demand left to run it’s own course and reversed around year ...Read More

US – State Tax Reveues Stuggling

[Skip to the end] Preliminary data for Jan – Mar quarter shows sales tax at -0.1% YY, first decline since 2002 Q1. 21 states out of 36 reporting so far saw declines. Inflation adjusted sales tax declined in at least 27 states. Income tax was +4.7% YY thus no notable deterioration yet. ...Read More

Wed am recap

Mainstream economics says: Get inflation right and that ‘automatically’ optimizes long-term growth and employment. Adding to demand with a negative supply shock turns a ‘relative value story’ into an ‘inflation story.’ The ECB is following mainstream theory, while the Fed is not. why? The Fed sees looming systemic, deflationary tail risk at ...Read More

Re: Bernanke

(email) On 11 Jan 2008 11:17:34 +0000, Prof. P. Arestis wrote: >   Dear Warren, > >   Many thanks. Some good comments below. > >   The paragraph that I think is of some importance is this: > > >  The Committee will, of course, be carefully evaluating incoming > >  information bearing on ...Read More

Crisis may make 1929 look a ‘walk in the park’

Crisis may make 1929 look a ‘walk in the park’ Telegraph by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard As central banks continue to splash their cash over the system, so far to little effect, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard argues that things risk spiralling out of their control Twenty billion dollars here, $20bn there, and a lush half-trillion from ...Read More

Italian budget deficit down towards 2%

Falling deficits in general in the Eurozone due to the growth rate of GDP combined and the countercyclical tax structure. Aggregate demand from non government credit expansion (and some from exports) is supporting GDP as support from government deficit spending wanes. This can go on for quite a while as consumer leverage ...Read More

Strong gdp and high credit losses

CNBC just had a session on trying to reconcile high gdp with large credit losses. Seems they are now seeing the consumer clipping along at a +2.8% pace for Q4. No need to rehash my ongoing position that most if not all the losses announced in the last 6 months would have ...Read More

The Trillion Dollar Day

The Trillion Dollar Day Yesterday, $1.048 trillion dollars was printed out of thin air, which gave the globe its first Trillion Dollar Day. Everyday, all government spending is ‘printed out of thin air’, and all payments to the government ‘vanish into thin air’. However, there were no net payments yesterday for all ...Read More

8:30 Numbers

Consensus was high enough, let’s see how tomorrow turns out. Also retail sales up a lot more than just energy prices, and claims down. Still no sign yet of aggregate demand breaking down Lehman earnings higher than estimates November Inflation Surged; Retail Sales Also Strong Inflation at the wholesale level was stronger ...Read More