Friday mid day

Food, crude, metals up, dollar down, inflation up all over the world, well beyond CB ‘comfort levels.’ Nov new home sales continue weak, though there are probably fewer ‘desirable’ new homes priced to sell, and with starts are down the new supply will continue to be low for a while. The December Chicago pmi was […]

Updated JGBi Index Ratio Table

(an interoffice email) Hi Dave, If core inflation is finally showing up in Japan that says a lot for world inflation in general! warren On Dec 28, 2007 8:12 AM, Dave Vealey wrote: > > > > With last nights stronger then expected release of core inflation in Japan > (+0.4% y/y vs. +0.3% expected), […]

Calories, Capital, Climate Spur Asian Anxiety

Higher oil prices mean lower rates from the Fed, and higher inflation rates induced by shortages mean stronger currencies abroad. Why do I have so much trouble getting aboard this paradigm, and instead keep looking for reversals? Feels a lot like watching the NASDAQ go from 3500 to 5000 a few years ago. :( Calories, […]

2007-12-27 US Economic Releases

MBAVPCH Index MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 21) Survey n/a Actual -7.6% Prior 19.5% Revised n/a Goes down this time every year and bounces back early January. Durable Goods Orders (Nov) Survey 2.0% Actual 0.1% Prior -0.4% Revised -0.4% Durable Goods Ex Transportation (Nov) Survey 0.5% Actual -0.7% Prior -0.7% Revised -0.9% Still drifting lower over […]

Italian budget deficit down towards 2%

Falling deficits in general in the Eurozone due to the growth rate of GDP combined and the countercyclical tax structure. Aggregate demand from non government credit expansion (and some from exports) is supporting GDP as support from government deficit spending wanes. This can go on for quite a while as consumer leverage still has a […]

gas demand +.9%

Give Saudi/Russians comfort that they can keep hiking. And markets say Fed will keep ‘accommodating’. So much for higher prices curbing demand! DJ US Gasoline Demand +0.9% On Week – MasterCard SpendingPulse(DJ) NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–U.S. gasoline demand for the week ended Dec. 21, measured by purchases at the pump, rose 0.9% from a week […]

Saudi/Fed teamwork

Looks like markets are still trading with the assumption that as the Saudis/Russians hike prices the Fed will accommodate with rate cut. That’s a pretty good incentive for more Saudi/Russian oil price hikes, as if they needed any! Likewise, the US is a large exporter of grains and foods. Those prices are now linked to […]

2007-12-26 US Economic Releases

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Oct) Survey n/a Actual 192.9 Prior 195.6 Revised 195.7 S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY (Oct) Survey -5.7% Actual -6.1% Prior 4.9% Revised n/a S&P/CS 20 MoM (Oct) Survey n/a Actual -1.42% Prior -0.84% Revised n/a % Change -69.05% S&P/Case-Shiller TABLE Survey 1 Actual -4 Prior 0 Revised n/a It’s a big city index […]

Government spending and inflation comments

Note how the ‘soft spot’ in govt. spending corresponds to the softening in domestic demand. Fortunately exports have been expanding sufficiently to sustain reasonably high levels of GDP. Looks like a full recovery from the Aug 06 gasoline price collapsed engineered by Goldman’s changing of their commodity index weightings? ♥

Strong gdp and high credit losses

CNBC just had a session on trying to reconcile high gdp with large credit losses. Seems they are now seeing the consumer clipping along at a +2.8% pace for Q4. No need to rehash my ongoing position that most if not all the losses announced in the last 6 months would have little or no […]