This component is going nowhere: Still trying to catch up from the oil capex collapse of 2016 and covid collapse: Not good: This is an all time low as people scramble to get extra jobs to deal with higher prices, like paying rent, for example: Oil prices taking a breather with the announcements of releases […]
Category Archives: Oil
Saudi price hike, private payrolls, new hires, corporate profits
This could easily drive oil up past $200/barrel and trigger a serious recession. This survey/forecast is higher than precovid. The full employment report comes out Friday: Gross new hires have been trending lower: Corporate profits jumped after the covid dip and have recently flattened:
Pending home sales, Durable goods orders, oil rigs and production
Recovered to trend but only because this chart isn’t adjusted for inflation: Nor does the narrative that consumers have gone crazy buying goods seem to be holding up: Not a lot of growth here:
Oil drilling, vehicle sales, unemployment claims, private payrolls
With oil prices working their way higher, so is US oil drilling: Looks like they are falling back to ‘trend’: Still lots of slack: So much for the notion that businesses can’t find employees? Still lots of slack:
ADP, Euro inflation, Mtg purchase apps, Loan officer survey, Saudi output, jobs
Highlights ADP sees the private payroll reading in Friday’s employment report coming in at 178,000. But ADP has been wild lately, evident in its sharp 33,000 upward revision to June which is now at 191,000. Econoday expectations are calling for 175,000 in private payroll growth in Friday’s report and 178,000 in total nonfarm payroll growth. […]
ADP, ISM non manufacturing, Interview, Saudi output, credit chart, Inflation chart, claims chart, Mueller team news
Lower than expected and last month revised lower: Highlights ADP sees June private payrolls rising 158,000 which misses Econoday’s ADP consensus of 180,000. Econoday’s consensus for actual private payrolls in Friday’s employment report is 164,000 which isn’t likely to shift following ADP’s results. Estimates this year from ADP have been hit and miss with a […]
Mtg purchase apps, Gas prices, Greek debt, Euro area trade and inflation, Oil prices
Another setback for those grasping for straws looking for housing to lead a recovery: MBA Mortgage Applications Gas prices up enough to hurt consumers, but not enough boost oil capex. You might say it’s in the ‘sour spot’: Again, for all practical purposes this IS full debt forgiveness, and something Greece has yet to recognize […]
Mexico car production, oil prices
Not a good sign for US sales: Mexico Car Production Mexico’s auto production decreased by 4.1 percent on the year in February of 2016 following a 0.4 percent rise in January and exports dropped 1.2 percent. Automakers produced about 271 thousand units during the month, while exports totaled 220 thousand. Car Production in Mexico averaged […]
Chicago PMI, Pending home sales, EU inflation, G20 statement, Virginia jobless claims
As previously suspected, last month’s higher print was just a bit of volatility on the way down, as per the chart: Chicago PMI Highlights Another month and another month of wild volatility for the Chicago PMI which lurched from solid expansion in January to noticeable contraction in February. At a headline 47.6, Chicago’s PMI has […]
Mtg purchase apps, Car sales comments, ADP, ISM services, Exxon capex, BOJ comment
Up last week now back down as this sector remains in prolonged depression: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights The purchase index has been posting outsized gains this year but not in the January 29 week, falling 7.0 percent. The refinance index, however, did post a gain in the week, up 0.3 percent. Low interest rates have […]