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I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, Housing starts, Small business jobs

Becoming clear housing isn’t doing all that well: ...Read More

Vehicle sales, Retail sales, Industrial production

Monthly sales rates peaked in 2016 when oil capex collapsed, then leveled off, then started sliding again with the tariffs, then collapsed with the covid shock, and have nearly recovered to the lower levels: As with vehicles, the rate of monthly sales has recovered to prior levels, but sales lost during the ...Read More

Unemployment, Small business, China exports

Still way high and moved up again- not good! The survivors are feeling a bit better: ...Read More

Jobless claims, electricity production

...Read More

Consumer sentiment, job openings, trade, new US covid cases

Up a bit but still way down overall: Familiar pattern. Down big, partial recovery, downtrend resumes: And weak from covid and the tariffs: Moving in the wrong direction as flu season approaches: ...Read More

Vehicle sales, real estate loans

Still very weak: Since April, sales have increased, but are still down 4.3% from last year. The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate of 16.34 million SAAR. Sales-to-date are down 18.8% in 2020 compared to the ...Read More

Employment, durable goods orders

Leveling off at very low levels of total employment: This is not adjusted for inflation: ...Read More

Mtg apps, ADP payrolls

Private businesses in the US hired 749K workers in September of 2020, the most in three months and above market expectations of a 650K rise raising hopes the labour market recovery strengthened. Still, only half of the near 20 million jobs lost since March when the coronavirus crisis started have been recovered. ...Read More

Durable goods orders, air travel, hotel occupancy, gasoline supplied, miles driven, freight index

Same pattern- dip, partial recovery, leveling off and never got back to 2008 levels inflation adjusted: ...Read More

Unemployment claims, Architecture index, New home sales

Slightly higher than last week as they remain alarmingly high: Same pattern- big drop, some recovery, leveling off at lower levels: Same pattern developing but sales holding up at least for now: ...Read More