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Unemployment claims, Architecture index, New home sales

Slightly higher than last week as they remain alarmingly high: Same pattern- big drop, some recovery, leveling off at lower levels: Same pattern developing but sales holding up at least for now: ...Read More

Consumer sentiment, Existing home sales, Services

Not looking good: Up from the massive setback as some sales were delayed rather than cancelled: The emerging pattern seems to be the big collapse, a partial recovery, and then a tapering off from there: ...Read More

Consumer sentiment, current account

The current account deficit in the US widened by $59 billion, or 52.9%, to $170.5 billion in Q2 2020, the biggest gap since Q3 2008. It is equivalent to 3.5% of the GDP, compared to 2.1% in Q1. It mostly reflects an expanded deficit on goods and reduced surpluses on primary income ...Read More

Industrial production, Retail sales

Looks like we’ve stopped digging out of the hole: Sales have returned, at least for now, though a lot of sales were lost ‘forever’ due to covid: ...Read More

Unemployment claims, JOLTS

Not much evidence things getting anywhere near back to normal: ...Read More

Loans, interest margins

Business precautionary draw downs of lines of credit caused the spike, followed by a contraction as operational needs contract: Growth in real estate loans is slowing: Consumer borrowing dropped with the stimulus checks and then has flattened: Pause, recovery, and then a leveling off: ...Read More

Options buying, employment

The gap closed but at a slower rate indicating the extent to which the economy remains subdued 6 months into the crisis: Interesting- never seem gov sharply procyclical like this: ...Read More

Trucks and cars, Jobless claims, Trade

Same large dip partial recover story: Down a bit but still way high this many months after the initial surge: ...Read More

Construction spending, payrolls, durable goods orders, NY Manufacturing

Growth has been working it’s way lower for a long time: Not much of a recovery here: Total orders for the last several months are way down: ...Read More

Personal consumption, personal spending, rig count

Settling down as fiscal transfers subside, but still elevated: Income falling faster than consumption is growing: Real Personal Income less Transfer Payments ...Read More