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I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

Weekly jobless claims, Virus charts

Big spike up: New daily global confirmed cases growing: US cases growing rapidly and soon to surpass Italy and China to take the lead globally: ...Read More

Rig count, US Services, UK services, Euro zone services

Oil capex collapsing: Service sectors collapsing: ...Read More

Philly Fed, Claims, Hotels, Restaurants, Lending, Germany

All going to heck, no explanations necessary: ...Read More

NY manufacturing, China Industrial production, Restaurant traffic, Stocks

Here we go, and lots more of same to come. This is for March: Through Feb: ...Read More

Hotel occupancy, Consumer sentiment, Export and import prices, Rig count

Effects of virus starting to hit US economy: As expected, the lower price of oil will cut capital expenditures and eventually output: ...Read More

Lending, Weather adjusted employment, Japan

The mini spike in real estate lending from the drop in rates is already fading: The Japanese economy shrank 7.1 percent on an annualized basis in the fourth quarter of 2019, worse than an initial estimate of a 6.6 percent contraction and following a downwardly revised 0.1 percent growth in the previous ...Read More

Employment, Trade, Rails, Earnings

I suspect these numbers will be subject to large downward revisions, particularly today’s release, and the downtrend will continue. This is much like the other indicators that had recently blipped up and then reversed: Wage growth, for example, has been decelerating, while the narrative is that everyone is working and there are ...Read More

Durable goods orders, Employment, Trump job approval

Just updated for January, well before the virus, and already trending lower: Monthly employment report tomorrow. It’s been decelerating for quite a while and looks to slow further: Trump seems to be losing support during the last week or so? ...Read More

ADP, ISM, Markit services PMI, Swiss services, Japan, China services, Vehicle sales

Beat down by the tariffs, virus effects soon to come: Nice move up against the trend. We’ll see if it reverses like the Markit survey has: Examples of a recent reversals: Bit of a move down here as the virus slows things down in China: Still decelerating: ...Read More

ISM, Construction spending, Bank loans, HK chart, Headlines, CEO departures

Another one of those brief moves up after the long slide seems to be reversing: The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US declined to 50.1 in February of 2020 from 50.9 in January and below market expectations of 50.5. New orders contracted (49.8 from 52), production slowed (50.3 from 54.3) and both ...Read More