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Aug 14, 2014
I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here.
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ADP, ISM, Chicago business
Economic Releases
Jul 02, 2020
A relatively few new private sector jobs after the massive loss: A little bit of growth from massively depressed levels: Still in contraction:
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Architecture billings, Bank loans, Pending home sales, Dallas Fed Manufacturing
Economic Releases
Jun 29, 2020
Same story: Heading steadily lower. This is the source of a large component of the money supply. It’s always growing in normal times: Both fell hard and still falling from the lower levels:
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Unemployment claims, Durable goods orders, Trade, Testing
Economic Releases
Jun 25, 2020
Still increasing at an alarming rate: The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits eased to 1.480 million in the week ended June 20th, well above market expectations of 1.300 million, as companies continued to cut jobs more than a month after non-essential businesses resumed operations following closures in mid-March due to
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PMI, New and existing home sales, Vacation plans
Economic Releases
Jun 23, 2020
Note that it had already been decelerating from the tariffs before the virus hit. And it’s still been in contraction after 3 months: Services are contracting a bit faster than manufacturing: Still way down even with lower rates:
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GDP forecasts, Bank loans
Economic Releases
Jun 20, 2020
33% is about a 2 trillion drop in income/sales for q2. The fiscal adjustments may be a bit shy of that. More revisions next week: Peaked and decelerating hard:
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Housing starts, Unemployment claims
Economic Releases
Jun 18, 2020
Big drop from historically depressed levels: Still alarmingly high: Leveling off at very high levels:
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Payrolls, Gasoline, Rigs, Recession awareness
Economic Releases
Jun 18, 2020
Private payrolls are reported down by about 23.5 million employees: “While there are numerous theories as to why economists were so far off, one explanation was widely discussed on Friday. The jobless claims data and the ADP private payrolls report did not pick up what analysts call “hidden hiring.” Firms put their
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GDP forecasts, Consumer sentiment, Debt service vs profits, Seattle real estate, Bank loans
Economic Releases
Jun 13, 2020
-40% is about a $2.5 trillion loss for the quarter, which is more than the fiscal adjustments for the same quarter, which means to me a very slow start for q3 unless further fiscal adjustments are made: Not as low as the 2008 recession, as Federal transfers have been supporting consumer buying
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Unemployment claims
Economic Releases
Jun 11, 2020
Over 1.5 million new claims for unemployment comp last week, still an alarming rate of decline. Never even got up to 700,000 in the 2008 recession: Total collecting benefits continues at over 20 million. Never even got to 7 million in the 2008 recession: Not to mention this, bringing the total to
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Optimism index, German trade, Fed Atlanta
Economic Releases
Jun 10, 2020
And global trade had already been collapsing: Revised June 9 but still forecasting down nearly 50%:
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