PMC Donation Information

I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

Jobs, Vehicle sales, Housing starts, Industrial production

Rolled over and heading lower: Rolling over and heading south: Had been rolling over but then this year end/good weather spike in December housing starts and lower rates probably worked to move activity forward from 2020. Permits had a small spike a bit earlier, and have since leveled off, and no house ...Read More

NY manufacturing, Market cap concentration, Private equity

Looks somewhat like the 2000 buildup: Private equity most often includes substantial new debt: ...Read More

Earnings, Small business index

Earnings went up with the tax cuts but have decelerated sharply with the tariffs: Working its way lower as trumped up expectations recede only gradually: ...Read More

Rails, Bank loans

Deep in contraction: AAR: December Rail Carloads down 9.2% YoY, Intermodal Down 9.6% YoY Still decelerating: ...Read More

Employment, Wholesale sales, Auto and credit card delinquencies, Euro area trade

Decelerating since tariffs went into effect: Tend to rise as economy slows: ??? My strong euro fundamental seems to have been based on misleading reporting: ...Read More

ADP employment, Mtg purchase apps, Euro area sentiment and business climate

Headlines look good, chart not so good: Still depressed: Headlines look good, chart not so good: ...Read More

Trade, Durable goods, India GDP, Gasoline prices, ISM services

Both imports and exports falling as per the global trade collapse. Falling imports are also an indication of consumer weakness: New orders heading south with tariffs: Familiar pattern: Fire related maybe: Australia Construction PMI Contracts Further The Ai Group Australian Performance of Construction Index declined to 38.9 in December 2019 from 40 ...Read More

Services PMI, Japan services, Auto sales, Fund flow chart

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Rails, Margin debt, Iraq exit

Got to give Trump credit, the assassination got us out of Iraq! Iraqi parliament calls for US troops to be expelled —coalition suspends operations against ISIS ...Read More

ISM manufacturing, Construction, ISM NY, NY apts, Euro area loans

Deeper into contraction: The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The December PMI® registered 47.2 percent, a decrease of 0.9 percentage point from the November reading of 48.1 percent. This is the PMI®’s lowest reading since ...Read More