Author Archive

Employment, GDP, Personal Consumption, Chem activity, Euro area

With today’s numbers private sector employment continues its rapid deceleration brought on by the collapse in global trade from the tariffs: GDP is also decelerating for the same reasons: Contraction: The collapse continues: ...Read More

Home prices, Oil capex, ISM and Fed surveys

Not a good sign: Oil capex decline: Oil Rig Count Plunges To Lowest Level Since 2017 A Death Sentence For Small Oil & Gas Drillers Below 50 is contraction: ...Read More

Rails, Trade, Chicago Fed, Dallas Fed

Deep contraction: Highlights The good news is that the trade deficit in goods narrowed sharply in September to a much lower-than-expected $70.4 billion, but the bad news is both exports and imports, in an indication of economic slowing, fell sharply. Exports dropped 1.6 percent in the month for year-on-year contraction of 3.0 ...Read More

Durables, Manufacturing employment, US composite PMI, Euro area manufacturing

The global collapse continues unabated: Highlights An emphatically weak set of durable goods headlines for September raises the alarm for the health of the manufacturing sector while unexpectedly substantial contraction in capital goods orders deepens specific questions on the outlook for business investment. Durable goods orders fell a monthly 1.1 percent in ...Read More

France, Inventory cycle, Unemployment benefits, Architectural billings

Never seen so many charts that look pretty much like this: Much harder to get this cycle means that unemployment and benefits as defined are lower than otherwise, and that the counter cyclical stabilizing effect has been disabled: Most Unemployed People In 2018 Did Not Apply For Unemployment Insurance Benefits from the ...Read More

Existing home sales, UK, Euro area budget and exports

Rolling over: Fiscal this tight means they are entirely dependent on exports for growth, and exports have been collapsing with US tariff policy: From the ECB: “Currently extra-euro area imports and exports of goods and services amount to around half of euro area GDP.” ...Read More

China, US surveys

The 5th Deadly Innocent Fraud continues to take its toll: ...Read More

Housing starts, Industrial Production, Q3 GDP

Fell back this month after last month’s spike from the drop in rates and still looking to me like it’s going nowhere from historically depressed levels, and not population adjusted: Highlights Upward trajectory is the theme of housing starts and permits, in data where September’s headlines don’t always tell the fundamental story. ...Read More

Retail sales, Business inventories

Weak income and employment growth tends to coincide with weak retail sales growth, as the global trade collapse continues: Highlights The consumer cooled but not enough to not knock back a still rising trend for retail sales which in September fell an unexpected 0.3 percent. All the breakdowns also came in well ...Read More

NY manufacturing, Trucks, China

Rolled over and headed lower: Note the collapse in the growth of China’s imports due to the tariffs, which equals rest of world exports to China: ...Read More