Income, Consumption Chicago PMI, Trade, GDP forecasts, France, Canada, India

Continues to decelerate from the tariffs, and this is before the virus: Also decelerating before the virus: Before the virus, the downtrend is obvious as it remains below 50: Exports and imports both slowing as global trade continues to wind down: GDP forecast to decelerate, before the virus: Unsold inventory piling up: Gone negative well […]

Trade, Durable goods, India GDP, Gasoline prices, ISM services

Both imports and exports falling as per the global trade collapse. Falling imports are also an indication of consumer weakness: New orders heading south with tariffs: Familiar pattern: Fire related maybe: Australia Construction PMI Contracts Further The Ai Group Australian Performance of Construction Index declined to 38.9 in December 2019 from 40 in the previous […]

Euro area IP, India IP, Japan, Mexico, US claims, Sea containers

The global slow motion train wreck continues: Japan: Core machinery orders in Japan, which exclude those of ships and electrical equipment, declined 6.0 percent from a month earlier in October 2019, following a 2.9 percent fall in September and compared with market expectations of a 0.9 percent increase. It marked the longest period of month-on-month […]

Bank loans, CEO confidence, India

Tariffs have caused a global economy (that has a pro cyclical bias) to turn south. It’s always an unspent income story. When decisions to not spend income (decisions to ‘save’) are not sufficiently ‘offset’ by agents spending more than their incomes GDP (sales/income) decelerates until said deficit spending- private or public- expands to fill the […]

Japan exports, RV sales, Tariff delays

Japan Exports Fall for 8th Month Exports from Japan dropped 1.6 percent from a year earlier to JPY 6.64 trillion in July 2019, the eighth straight month of decrease and compared to market expectations of 2.2 percent fall, amid weakening global demand and the US-China trade dispute. An Economic Warning Sign: RV Sales Are Slipping […]

Trade, Inventories, Proposals before Congress

As previously discussed, exports are falling and imports climbing, with lots more to go: Highlights Trade looks to be a major negative that will be holding down fourth-quarter GDP. The advance trade deficit in goods widened sharply for a second straight month in November, to $65.3 billion following a revised $61.9 billion deficit in October […]