Italian article this am

Misrepresents what I say a bit, but they do have my picture next to JFK!
;)

The IMF: sovereign currency, no longer the monopoly of the banks

Eliminate the public debt of the United States at once, and do the same with Great Britain, Italy, Germany, Japan, Greece. At the same time revive the ‘ economy, stabilize prices and oust the bankers. In a clean and painless, and faster than what you can imagine. With a magic wand? No. With a simple law, but able to replace the current system, in which to create money out of nothing are private banks. We only need a measure requiring the banks to hold a financial reserve real, 100%. To propose two economists at the International Monetary Fund, Jaromir Bene and Michael Kumhof. You, the bank, you want to make money on the loan of money? First you have to prove it really that much money. Too easy to have it by the central bank (which the factory from scratch) and then “extort” families, businesses and entire states, imposing exorbitant interest.

The study of two economists, “The Chicago Plan Revisited,” with “a revolutionary and” scandalous “‘Maria Grazia Bruzzone,” La Stampa “, emphasizes the global resonance of the dossier, that bursts like a bomb on the world capitalist system now jammed. The global debt came the exorbitant sum of 200 trillion, that is 200 trillion dollars, while the world GDP is less than 70 trillion. Translated: the world debt is 300% of gross domestic product of the entire planet. “And to hold this huge mountain of debt – which continues to grow – there are more advanced economies and developing countries,” says the Bruzzone, stressing that “the heart of the problem and the cross” is the highest “power” Japan, Europe and the United States. Hence the sortie “heretical” by Bene and Kumhof: simply write off the debt, it disappears.Sparked the debate was the last IMF report, which points the finger on austerity policies aimed at reducing thepublic debt . Policies that “could lead to recession in the economies ‘, since’ cuts and tax increases depress the ‘economy ‘.

Not only. The IMF would be really worried the crisis that is ravaging the ‘ Europe threatens to be worse than the 2008 financial. The surprise is that even the IMF now thinks that “austerity can be used to justify the privatization of public services,” with consequences “potentially disastrous”. But if the problem is the debt – public, but now “privatized” by finance – you can not delete? Solution already ventilated by the Bank of England, which holds 25% of the British sovereign debt: the Bank of England may reset it by clicking on the computer. Advantages: “You will pay much less interest, it would free up cash and you could make less harsh austerity.” The debate rages on many media, starting from the same “Financial Times”. thread which breaks now the revolutionary proposal of the two IMF economists targati: cancel the debt.

“The Chicago Plan Revisited,” writes Maria Grazia Bruzzone, raises and explores the “Chicago Plan” original, drawn up in the middle of the Great Depression of the ’30s by two other economists, Irving Fisher, Henry Simons of the University of Chicago, the cradle of liberalism . Cancel 100% of the debt? “The trick is to replace our system, where money is created by private banks – for 95-97% of the supply of money – money created by the state. It would mean return to the historical norm, before the English King Charles II put in private hands control of the money available, “back in 1666. It would mean a frontal assault on the “fractional reserve” banking, accused of seigniorage on the issue of currency speculation: if lenders are instead forced to hold 100% of its reserves to guarantee deposits and loans, “pardon the exorbitant privilege of create money out of nothing. ” As a result: “The nation regained control over the availability of money,” and also “reduces the pernicious cycles of expansion and contraction of credit.”

The authors of the first “Plan of Chicago” had thought that the cycles of expansion and contraction of credit lead to an unhealthy concentration of wealth: “They had seen in the early thirties creditors seize farmers effectively bankrupt, grab their lands or comprarsele for a piece of bread. ” Today, the authors of the new edition of this plan argue that the “trauma” of the credit cycle that expands and contracts – caused by private money creation – is a historical fact that is already outlined with Jubilees Debt ancient Mesopotamia, as well as in ancient Greece and even Rome. Sovereign control (the state or the Pope) on currency, recalls Bruzzone, Britain remained so throughout the Middle Ages, until 1666, when it began the era of the cycles of expansion and contraction. With the “bank privatization” of money, add the “Telegraph”, “opened the way for the agricultural revolution, and after the industrial revolution and the biggest leap Economic ever seen “- but it is not the case of” quibbling, “quips the newspaper.

According to the young economists of the IMF, is just a myth – disclosed “innocently” by Adam Smith – that the money has been developed as a medium of exchange based on gold, or related to it. Just as it is a myth, the study points out the IMF, what you learn from books: that is the Fed, the U.S. central bank, to control the creation of the dollar. “In fact, money is created by private banks to 95-97% through loans.” Private banks, in fact, do not lend as owners of cash deposits, the process is exactly the opposite. “Every time a bank makes a loan, the computer writes the loan (plus interest) and the corresponding liability in its balance sheet. But the money that pays the bank has a small part. If it does borrow from another bank, or by the central bank. And the central bank, in turn, creates out of nothing that lends the money to the bank. ”

In the current system, in fact, the bank is not required to have its own reserves – except for a tiny fraction of what it provides. Under a system of “fractional reserve”, each money created out of nothing is a debt equivalent: “Which produces an exponential increase in the debt, to the point that the system collapses on itself.” The economists of the IMF hours overturn the situation. The key is the clear distinction between the amount of money and the amount of credit between money creation and lending. If you impose banks to lend only numbers covered by actual reserves, loans would be fully funded from reserves or profits accrued. At that point, the banks can no longer create new money out of thin air. Generate profits through loans – without actually having a cash reserve – is “an extraordinary and exclusive privilege, denied to other business.”

“The banks – says Maria Grazia Bruzzone – would become what he mistakenly believed to be, pure intermediaries who have to get out their funds to be able to make loans.” In this way, the U.S. Federal Reserve “is approprierebbe for the first time the control over the availability of money, making it easier to manage inflation.” In fact, it is observed that the central bank would be nationalized, becoming a branch of the Treasury, and now the Fed is still owned by private banks. “Nationalizing” the Fed, the huge national debt would turn into a surplus, and the private banks’ should borrow reserves to offset possible liabilities. ” Already wanted to do John Fitzgerald Kennedy, who began to print – at no cost – “dollars of the Treasury,” against those “private” by the Fed, but the challenge of JFK died tragically, as we know, under the blows of the killer of Dallas , quickly stored from “amnesia” of powerful debunking.

Sovereign coin, issued directly by the government, the state would no longer be “liable”, but it would become a “creditor”, able to buy private debt, which would also be easily deleted. After decades, back on the field the ghost of Kennedy. In short: even the economists of the IMF hours espouse the theory of Warren Mosler, who are fighting for their monetary sovereignty as a trump card to go out – once and for all – from financial slavery subjecting entire populations, crushed by the crisis , the hegemonic power of a very small elite of “rentiers”, while the ‘ economic reality – with services cut and the credit granted in dribs and drabs – simply go to hell. And ‘the cardinal assumption of Modern Money Theory supported in Italy by Paul Barnard: if to emit “money created out of nothing” is the state, instead of banks, collapsing the blackmail of austerity that impoverishes all, immeasurably enriching only parasites of finance . With currency sovereign government can create jobs at low cost. That is, welfare, income and hope for millions of people, with a guaranteed recovery of consumption. Pure oxygen ‘s economy . Not surprisingly, adds Bruzzone, if already the original “Chicago Plan”, as approved by committees of the U.S. Congress, never became law, despite the fact that they were caldeggiarlo well 235 academic economists, including Milton Friedman and English liberal James Tobin, the father of the “Tobin tax”. In practice, “the plan died because of the strong resistance of the banking sector.” These are the same banks, the journalist adds the “Print”, which today recalcitrano ahead to reserve requirements a bit ‘higher (but still of the order of 4-6%) required by the Basel III rules, however, insufficient to do deterrent in the event of a newcrisis . Banks: “The same who spend billions on lobbying and campaign contributions to presidential candidates. And in front of the new “Chicago Plan” threaten havoc and that “it would mean changing the nature of western capitalism. ‘” That may be true, admits Bruzzone: “Maybe but it would be a better capitalism. And less risky. ”

Credit spillovers from Eur banks to EM

Makes sense.

I always wondered how that loan demand was accommodated.
Never looked like the kind of lending US regulators would sanction.


Karim writes:

Interesting table from JPM.
Much larger dependence on credit from Eur banks for LATAM economies than from U.S. banks.
Poland/Russia not as surprising but still large!
Overall, domestic bank lending surveys in EM have also been moving towards a net tightening of lending standards.

Could be more severe credit contraction in those economies as a result of ongoing strains in Europe.

Euro area and US bank claims on EM
As of 2Q11
EUR Banks
US Banks
$ bn
% of dom cred
$ bn
% of dom cred
EM
1980.7
12.4
811.3
5.1
EM Asia
406.7
3.2
472.0
3.8
China
90.6
1.0
81.7
0.9
Korea
68.4
6.3
95.1
8.8
Latam
618.1
38.7
248.5
15.6
Brazil
285.0
23.1
97.6
7.9
Russia
113.5
16.1
23.8
3.4
Poland
249.0
95.6
14.4
5.5


mtg apps dip

How does that go again about low rates helping housing?

Mortgage Applications Dipped Last Week

June 29 (Reuters) — Applications for U.S. home mortgages slipped last week as demand waned, even as mortgage rates dropped, an industry group said Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell 2.7 percent in the week ended June 24.

The MBA’s seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications fell 2.6 percent, while the gauge of loan requests for home purchases lost 3.0 percent.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 69.5 percent of total applications from 69.2 percent the week before.

Fixed 30-year mortgage rates averaged 4.46 percent in the week, down from 4.57 percent.

mtg apps for new purchases fall again

Seems the fall off after the tax credit ended April 30th has yet to fully run its course:

US Mortgage Applications Soar on Refinance Demand

July 7th (Reuters) —Refinancing drove total U.S. mortgage applications to a nine-month high last week, while demand for loans to purchase homes sunk to a near 13-year low as buyers remained sidelined after the expiration of federal tax credits.

Mortgage rates stuck around record lows, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday, giving homeowners another chance to cut monthly payments by refinancing.

Refinancing requests jumped 9.2 percent in the week ended July 2 to the highest level since May 2009, lifting total applications by 6.7 percent, seasonally adjusted, to the highest level since early October 2009.

Demand for mortgages to buy homes slipped 2 percent. It was the eighth weekly drop in the nine weeks since the federal tax credits for homebuyers expired on April 30.

“For the month of June, purchase applications declined almost 15 percent relative to the prior month and were down more than 30 percent compared to April, the last month in which buyers were eligible for the tax credit,” Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s vice president of research and economics, said in a statement.

The average 30-year mortgage rate was little changed in the week ended July 2, climbing 0.01 percentage point to 4.68 percent.

The borrowing rate lingered just above the record low of 4.61 percent set in March 2009, according to the MBA’s records that date back to 1990.

Fifteen-year mortgage rates rose to 4.11 percent last week from the record low 4.06 percent set the prior week.

Refinancings accounted for 78.7 percent of all applications last week, the highest share since April 2009, the industry group said.

Tepid employment growth and a surprisingly steep slump in pending home sales kept interest rates low.

Home purchases will stay weak over the next few months as the housing market adjusts to the end of government incentives, and prices should bottom around the third quarter, said Robert Andrews, senior research analyst at IBISWorld in Santa Monica, California.

Fallout from record defaults and foreclosures are also likely to sway many younger buyers from making such a big commitment in the near term, he said.

“People in my generation, people 20 to 30 years old, saw the downside risk associated with housing, so I think there’s going to be a bit weaker demand over the next few years,” said Andrews.

Refinancing, likewise, is unlikely to approach the levels seen last year when mortgage rates were near current levels.

Borrowers who could qualify for refinancing have in most cases already refinanced, most analysts agree.

Total Credit decline from $2,475 billion to $2,463


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Two things:

1. Sales remain soft.
2. The federal deficit spending facilitates the same amount of sales with less credit.

>   
>   (email exchange)
>   
>   On Sun, Jul 12, 2009 at 9:20 AM, Dave wrote:
>   
>   Yet another month where the decline in consumer credit comes in worse than
>   expected: Total Credit decline from $2,475 billion to $2,463, with the bulk
>   of the $12 billion decline consisting of Revolving Credit reduction, or $10
>   billion, to $900 billion. Total consumer credit is now back to July 2007
>   levels… and the decline has yet to decelerate. This is the seventh straight
>   month of consumer credit declines.
>   


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AVM Corporate Credit Weekly Update


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AVM Corporate Credit Weekly (Dec 19)

General Commentary

It looks like people definitely took our thoughts from last week to heart, as the “January Effect” came early to the corporate credit markets this past week. The IG, High Yield and Leveraged loan CDX indices tightened by 45, 100 and 404 bps respectively, since last Thursday’s close. Despite a 400bp rally, LCDX still trades approximately 50 bps wide of HY CDX. This may continue, as the recently defaulted Hawaiian Telecom’s loans’ settling at 40 cents on the dollar does not bode well for the future of loan recoveries.

In the cash markets, investment grade credit has been the star, as the Lehman Corporate Index is up 5.41% MTD and has also managed to outperform treasuries. Despite solid performance this week, the high yield market and the equity markets have been laggards this month, down -0.52% and -0.56% respectively.

News that the Fed is “all in” and broker (sorry) bank earnings that were not as bad as feared, helped the market follow through on last week’s strength. The market actually managed to shrug off S&P’s downgrade of Bank America, Citi, JP Morgan and several other banks of Friday morning. While it will take a while for central bank actions and other forms of stimulus to take hold, the fact remains that a huge amount of money is being focused on repairing the credit markets. At the same time credit valuations are at depression era valuations, while equities are definitely not in that camp. Thus, I would expect credit continue to outperform equities in early 2009.

Investment Grade

  • Spreads in the IG cash market tightened by 17 bps since last Friday to +615. IG CDX tightened in by about 45 bps to 215 for the week as the market has consistently tightened each day.
  • Telecomm and Cable issuers led the rally. Retailers also outperformed the broader market. Cyclical sectors such as Metals & Mining, Paper and Energy all widened during the week.
  • Issuance continued to improve upon the previous week, as $6.5 bln in corporate deals were priced. This week’s calendar was highlighted by a $2.0 billion 30yr, AA- 5 year deal from Proctor & Gamble, which came at a spread of 310. FYI – The spread on the high yield index was 306 in the middle of last July.

High Yield

  • The JPM Yield Index reversed a trend and was up 1.13% since last Thursday’s close. The index barely kept pace with treasuries, as the spread tightened 1 bp to +1888.
  • The Telecomm, Food and Healthcare sectors were all up over 2% this week. Chemicals and Broadcasters were the worst performers, down 3.5%.
  • There was one small new issue that was priced. B2/BB- Kansas City Southern did a $190mm five year deal at 13%.

Credit Events This Week

  1. Republic of Ecuador – The deadline for adherence to the Uniform Settlement Agreement is 4 pm New York time on 12/22/08. Ecuador’s government did not make a $30.6 million interest payment due on 12/15/08 (30 day grace period after 11/15/08 original due date). Ecuador, which also defaulted in 1999, owes approximately $10 billion to bondholders, multilateral lenders and other countries. Ecuador’s debt auditing commission has determined that the 2012 and 2030 bonds showed serious signs of illegality, including issuance without proper government authorization and recommended that the government not pay on the debt.
  2. Tribune Company – The adherence period for the ISDA CDS Protocol opened on Tuesday, 12/16 and will close at 5:00 pm on Friday, 12/19. A separate protocol will be issued for LCDS trades. The auction date has been set for 1/6/09.
  3. Hawaiian Telecom – The LCDS credit event auction on 12/17/08 resulted in a final price of 40.125.


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Re: Uncle Sam’s Credit Line Running Out?


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(email exchange)

>   
>   On Wed, Nov 12, 2008 at 10:31 AM, John wrote:
>   
>   Here is support for recent reviews and portfolio positions.
>   

Yes, thanks, and ridiculous, of course. Comments below:

Uncle Sam’s Credit Line Running Out?

By Randall W. Forsyth

The yield curve and credit-default swaps tell the same story: The U.S. can’t borrow trillions without paying a price.

Not saying that at all!

What was once unthinkable has come to pass this year: massive bailouts by the Treasury and the Federal Reserve, with the extension of billions of the taxpayers’ and the central bank’s credit in so many new and untested schemes that you can’t tell your acronyms or abbreviations without a scorecard.

Even more unbelievable is that some of the recipients of staggering sums are coming back for a second round. Or that the queue of petitioners grows by the day.

But what happens if the requests begin to strain the credit line of the world’s most creditworthy borrower, the U.S. government itself? Unthinkable?

Yes, government spends first, then borrows.

Trillions are no hyperbole. The Treasury is set to borrow $550 billion in the current quarter alone and $368 billion in the first quarter of 2009. “Near-term pressures on Treasury finances are much more intense than we had thought,” Goldman Sachs economists commented when the government announced its borrowing projections last week.

Define ‘intense’ please…

It may finally be catching up with Uncle Sam. That’s what the yield curve may be whispering. But some economists are too deaf, or dumb, to get it.

The yield curve reflects anticipated Fed funds rate targets plus ‘technicals’ which can include misguided risk perceptions.

But the Treasury has not needed to issue longer term maturities. It can do it all in 3 month bills or even shorter maturities.

Treasury securities function to ‘offset operating factors’ and provide interest bear accounts as alternatives to the interest rate now paid on excess reserves.

And any constraints on government spending are self imposed.


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2008-10-13 CREDIT


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Breaking out to new wides, as equities test new lows.

As before, equities are unlikely to rally substantially without the rest of the credit products tightening up.

It’s all the same thing.

IG On-the-run Spreads (Oct 13)

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IG6 Spreads (Oct 13)

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IG7 Spreads (Oct 13)

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IG8 Spreads (Oct 13)

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IG9 Spreads (Oct 13)


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