Another setback for those grasping for straws looking for housing to lead a recovery: MBA Mortgage Applications Gas prices up enough to hurt consumers, but not enough boost oil capex. You might say it’s in the ‘sour spot’: Again, for all practical purposes this IS full debt forgiveness, and something Greece has yet to recognize […]
Category Archives: Greece
Unemployment claims, NYC apts, Japan spending, interview in Truth-Out
Claims readings could be distorted because a smaller share of those potentially eligible for benefits are applying. The share of recently unemployed workers seeking benefits has fallen this year to just above 50%, according to the National Employment Law Project, a group that advocates for the unemployed. The rate is down from record high of […]
quick macro update
It all started when the FICA tax cuts and a few of the Bush tax reductions were allowed to expire at the end of 2012, followed by the sequesters a few months later 2013. That resulted in 2013 GDP growth of a bit less than 2% or so that might have been closer to 4% […]
Krugman on debt
Debt Is Good By Paul Krugman Aug 21 (NYT) — Rand Paul said something funny the other day. No, really — although of course it wasn’t intentional. On his Twitter account he decried the irresponsibility of American fiscal policy, declaring, “The last time the United States was debt free was 1835.” Which consequently was followed […]
Redbook Retail Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices, PMI Services, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed, Oil Capex, Truck Tonnage
Still bad: source: Econoday.com Softening: source: Econoday.com I don’t put much weight on Markit surveys, but the optimism comment is interesting: source: Econoday.com Highlights Service sector growth is strengthening slightly this month based on Markit’s July flash index which is up 4 tenths to a very solid 55.2. New orders are at a 3-month high […]
LA Port Traffic, Greek Banks, Recession Without Financial Crisis
Another weak export report. No mention of the drop in oil prices reduced foreign incomes. LA area Port Traffic: Weakness in June by Bill McBride on 7/20/2015 09:57:00 AM Note: There were some large swings in LA area port traffic earlier this year due to labor issues that were settled on February 21st. Port traffic […]
WRKO The Voice of Boston Radio Interview
Click here to listen to my interview on WRKO The Voice of Boston on July 17th
Nice Mentions in Bloomberg
Nine People Who Saw the Greek Crisis Coming Years Before Everyone Else Did By Julie Verhage and Alex Balogh (Bloomberg) Saw it all coming in 1995 and held a conference on it in 1996 in Bretton Woods. ;)
Fed Testimony
Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress By Janet Yellen Looking forward, prospects are favorable for further improvement in the U.S. labor market and the economy more broadly. Low oil prices Still seems to leave out the fact that a dollar saved by the buyer of oil is a dollar lost by the seller. And […]
China trade, Greece comment
More reason to suspect US exports will disappoint and US imports will exceed expectations: