ISM, Construction spending, Bank loans, HK chart, Headlines, CEO departures

Another one of those brief moves up after the long slide seems to be reversing: The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US declined to 50.1 in February of 2020 from 50.9 in January and below market expectations of 50.5. New orders contracted (49.8 from 52), production slowed (50.3 from 54.3) and both employment (46.9 from […]

Housing, Eurozone construction, Singapore, Consumer comfort, Air freight

You can see from the charts how depressed this cycle has been, and how housing has stalled out overall for the last few years, and all with ultra low mortgage rates: Permits which are more volatile have ‘spiked’ back to 1965 levels when the population was about half: A relatively small economy but the drop […]

Employment, US PMI’s, Factory orders, Japan sales tax, HK, MMT comments

Headline number looks promising. The question is whether employment will lag the other indicators that are decelerating, or provide the support that turns them around. And note the .1 drop in the work week is equivalent to maybe to something over 100,000 jobs: Highlights That sound you hear is the economy revving up. Nonfarm payroll […]

Car sales, HK, China default, capex, EU business lending, EU sentiment, Credit card data

Chinese state company defaults offshore, first time in 20 years (FT) A Chinese state-owned enterprise from the country’s remote north-west has failed to repay a US dollar bond in Hong Kong, the first offshore default in 20 years and the latest sign investors can no longer rely on Chinese authorities to bail out state groups. […]

Wealth share, Vehicle sales, US retail sales, US trade, German trade, HK index, UK, US Consumer credit

The ‘labor market’ is not a ‘fair game’ as people need to work to eat, and business only needs to hire if it likes the return prospects, so real wages should be expected to remain depressed without some form of outside support, which broke down in the 80’s with globalization policies, and the share of […]

News headlines- weakness continues, Mtg apps, Pending home sales, Confidence, ADP employment, MMT articles

Apple says China sales fell 27% last quarter (Nikkei) Apple’s net sales in greater China, including the mainland, Hong Kong and Taiwan, fell 27% on the year to $13.17 billion for the three months ended Dec. 29 in results announced Tuesday. This marked the first downturn there in six quarters. Combined sales elsewhere, including the […]

Employment chart, China trade, SNB

The red line tends to drag down the blue line, often when deficit spending gets too low: Exports drop again, imports drop more, so the trade surplus grows, and the US should see more imports and fewer exports, while euro zone imports are down which adds to their trade surplus: China’s Trade Drop Means More […]

labor market index, consumer credit, China trade, BIS on oil and debt

This is the Fed’s new indicator: Labor Market Conditions Index Definition The U.S. labor market is large and multifaceted. Often-cited indicators such as the unemployment rate or payroll employment, measure a particular dimension of labor market activity. It is not uncommon for different indicators to send conflicting signals about labor market conditions. The Fed’s research […]