Category Archives: GDP

Autos and export related anecdotes, Atlanta Fed GDP forecast

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This is consistent with the US production and inventory numbers.

While the total vehicle sales rate was up a bit, the gains seem to be entirely in imported vehicles:
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More anecdotal evidence of export softness:
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August 2015 Sea Container Exports Still Lagging

By Steven Hansen

The data for this series continues to be less than spectacular – but imports improved this month while exports degraded. The year-to-date volumes are contracting for exports but imports are now in the green.

This continues to indicate weak economic conditions domestically and globally. Consider that imports final sales are added to GDP usually several months after import – while the import cost itself is subtracted from GDP in the month of import. Export final sales occur around the date of export. Container counts do not include bulk commodities such as oil or autos which are not shipped in containers.

Japan : Merchandise Trade
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Highlights
August’s merchandise trade deficit was a greater than anticipated ¥569.7 billion, much larger than July’s revised deficit of ¥268.4 billion. It was the fifth consecutive month that balance was negative. On the year, exports were up 3.1 percent while imports retreated 3.1 percent. Expectations were for an increase of 4 percent for exports and a decline of 2.2 percent for imports.

Exports to Asia were up 1.1 percent for the sixth straight increase. However, exports to China sank 4.6 percent for the first decline in six months. Exports to the EU slipped 0.2 percent for the first drop in nine months. Exports to the U.S. jumped 11.1 percent for the 12 straight increase.

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Mtg purchase applications, UK industrial production, Saudi visit, US budget deficit

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Purchase apps came in 41% higher than a year ago, but have been going nowhere for several months and now look to be drifting lower, as in any case they remain at seriously depressed levels:

MBA Mortgage Applications
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Highlights
After jumping 17.0 percent in the prior week on a rate-related surge in refinancing applications, the refinance index fell back 10 percent in the September 4 week. The purchase index continues to show much less volatility, down 1.0 percent in the week. Rates were little changed in the week with the average 30-year mortgage for conforming loans ($417,000 or less) up 2 basis points to 4.10 percent.
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Blow up of the last few years. Note the recent decline:
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Great Britain : Industrial Production
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Highlights
The UK goods producing sector significantly underperformed expectations in July. Overall industrial production fell 0.4 percent on the month, matching its June decline, while the key manufacturing sector contracted a hefty 0.8 percent, easily eclipsing a 0.2 percent rise last time.

The monthly fall in manufacturing output reflected decreases in seven of the thirteen reporting subsectors. Within this, the steepest drop was posted by basic metals and metals products (5.7 percent), mainly due to weakness in weapons production which can be very volatile and this alone accounted for half of the overall decline. The second largest negative impact came from transportation equipment which subtracted 0.3 percentage points from monthly growth. However, outside of these categories performances were rather better and in particular there was a solid 5.8 percent gain in pharmaceuticals, in part courtesy of surprisingly buoyant export demand.

Total industrial production found some support from a 0.4 percent monthly increase in the volatile mining and quarrying subsector together with rises in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning (1.3 percent) as well as in water and waste management (0.5 percent).

The latest data leave overall goods production in July 0.6 percent below its second quarter average and, on the same basis, manufacturing output down some 0.9 percent. The August manufacturing PMI (51.5) was less than bullish and while last month probably saw kind of a rebound, it looks as if industrial production will not provide much of a boost to real GDP growth this quarter. Whether the Fed tightens or not this month, there is still little pressure on the BoE MPC to hike any time soon.

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What little growth we do get only tightens the noose further as govt’s net contribution to aggregate demand is further reduced. For 2014 the US economy was supported by oil related capital expenditures that ended when prices collapsed late last year, and so far year I’ve seen nothing stepping up to replace it, apart from increases in unsold inventories and accounting for the new health care premiums as an increase in personal consumption. With the federal deficit now below that of the euro area the rest of the US economy is likely heading in that direction as well:

CBO: Fiscal 2015 Federal Deficit through August more than 10% below Last Year

More good news … the budget deficit in fiscal 2015 will probably decline more than 10% compared to fiscal 2014.

From the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) today: Monthly Budget Review for August 2015

The federal government’s budget deficit amounted to $528 billion for the first 11 months of fiscal year 2015, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. That deficit was $61 billion smaller than the one recorded during the same period last year. Revenues and outlays were both higher than last year’s amounts, by 8 percent and 5 percent, respectively. Adjusted for shifts in the timing of certain payments (which otherwise would have fallen on a weekend), the deficit for the 11-month period decreased by $42 billion.

In its most recent budget projections, CBO estimated that the deficit for fiscal year 2015 (which will end on September 30, 2015) would total $426 billion, about $59 billion less than the shortfall in fiscal year 2014. …
The Treasury will run a surplus in September, and it appears the deficit for fiscal 2015 (ends in September) will be below 2.4% of GDP.

The Treasury will run a surplus in September, and it appears the deficit for fiscal 2015 (ends in September) will be below 2.4% of GDP.

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Fed comments and charts, Employment from outside the labor force, Public sector employment, Small Business Index, Labor market conditions index

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The reason the Fed is talking hike is because they believe the continued modest growth is reducing the excess capacity in the economy, and they are concerned about hitting the wall of full employment with their 0 rate policy and multi $ trillion portfolio, both of which they believe to be highly accommodative.

That is, they believe the car is creeping along in the fog towards what they believe is a wall with their foot on what they believe is the accelerator, and they want to lighten the pressure on the presumed accelerator before they hit the presumed wall.

However, they also know the growth in employment is only very slightly staying ahead of population growth, and, likewise, most all of the drop in the rate of unemployment is due a drop in the labor force participation rate, and not to employment growth. And they also know most of the newly employed were not considered in the labor force when they were hired, raising questions about what the labor force participation rate is actually measuring. And further evidence of a continued high level of slack are the continuing low levels of wage increases, as well as low reported inflation readings in general, which remain well below Fed targets 6 years into their 0 rate and QE initiatives.

And then there is the counterfactual, with their models telling them the economy would have been a whole lot worse without their accommodative policies. Believing that suggests that any backing off from current policy risks a substantial setback.

My conclusion- no telling what they might do. These are human beings navigating in a fog with an inapplicable map, and they think the brake pedal (lowering rates) is the gas pedal.

San Francisco Fed’s Williams Sees Rate Increase ‘This Year,’ If Risks Dissipate

By Jon Hilsenrath and Michael S. Derby

July 1 (WSJ) — “All of the data that we have had up until now has been, I think, encouraging. It …has been about as good, or better, than I was expecting, in terms of the U.S. economy,” San Fran Fed president John Williams said. “But there are some pretty significant—and I would say have now grown larger—headwinds that have developed.” The change in financial conditions since the July Fed meeting, in the form of falling stock prices and a rising dollar, “have been pretty big,” he said. “It’s not the case that nothing has changed since our last [policy] meeting.”

Sure looks to me like most everything peaked when oil prices collapsed:
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So, interesting how the jobs are coming from ‘outside the labor force’ when it’s been the presumed and unique ‘shrinking labor force’ that’s resulted in most of the decline in the unemployment rates:
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Employment growth has been nearly matched by population growth, so, again, it’s only via the ‘shrinking labor force’ argument that there’s been ‘improvement’:
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President Obama remains the all time Tea Party hero when it comes to reducing the size of govt:
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From RHB- you can see which one leads:
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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
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Highlights
A solid gain in job openings and a solid bounce back for earnings trends helped lift the small business optimism 4 tenths to 95.9 vs Econoday expectations for 96.0. The index shows no immediate effect from troubles in China and global volatility. Hiring, capital spending and inventory investment plans firmed slightly, collectively adding 2 points. But the two outlook components collectively declined 4 points in readings that do not point to a big second-half finish for the economy.
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Labor Market Conditions Index
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Highlights
The August employment report proved mixed but not the labor market conditions index which rose 3 tenths to 2.1. This is a soft level compared to the mid-single digit trend of 2013 and 2014 but is still the highest reading of the year, since December. Adding to the strength is a 7-tenths upward revision to July. Payroll growth in August was weak but not the unemployment rate which fell 2 tenths to a recovery best of 5.1 percent. This index is based on a broad set of 19 components and could be cited by the hawks as evidence of labor market improvement at next week’s FOMC.

This hasn’t updated yet but you can see today’s print of 2.1 doesn’t impress:
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France PMI, Germany PMI, EU PMI, EU Retail Sales, UK service PMI, US Trade, ISM Non Manufacturing, Saudi Pricing

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France : PMI Composite
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Highlights
French private sector activity in August expanded at a significantly slower pace than indicated in the flash report according to the final PMI data for the month. At just 50.2, a 7-month low, the key composite output index was revised down an unusually large 1.1 points versus its preliminary reading to stand 1.3 points below its final July mark and close enough to 50 to signal a period of virtual stagnation in economic activity.

The flash service sector PMI was reduced by 1.2 points to 50.6, also a 7-month trough. As previously indicated, what growth there was reflected stronger new orders and rising backlogs although the growth rate of both hit multi-month lows. Certainly firms were not confident enough to add to headcount although, rather surprisingly, business expectations still climbed to their highest level since March 2012.

Meantime, another increase in input costs saw margins squeezed still further as service provider charges continued to fall.

The final PMI figures suggest that the French economy was really struggling last month. Total output was only flat in the April-June period and the survey data so far suggest little better this quarter.

Germany : PMI Composite
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Highlights
August’s flash composite output index was revised up a full point to 55.0 in the final data for the month. The new level was 1.3 points above July’s final reading, a 5-month high and strong enough to indicate a solid performance by the economy in mid-quarter.

The adjustment to the composite output gauge came courtesy of the service sector for which the preliminary PMI was revised some 1.3 points firmer to 54.9, also its best reading in five months. New orders rose strongly, backlogs were up and employment posted its largest gain since February. Against this backdrop, business expectations for the year ahead climbed to a 4-month peak.

What little progress they continue to make will evaporate with a strong euro, which I see as inevitable given their trade surplus:

European Union : PMI Composite
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Highlights
The final composite output index for August weighed in at 54.3, a couple of ticks stronger than its flash estimate and 0.4 points above its final July mark.

The flash services PMI was nudged just 0.1 points higher but, at 54.4, now matches June’s 4-year high. Increased output was supported by rising new orders and a sizeable increase in backlogs which, in turn, helped to ensure that employment growth remained respectably buoyant. Firms also became more optimistic about the economic outlook and business expectations for the year ahead climbed higher following July’s 7-month low. Meantime, inflation developments were mixed. Hence, although higher wages and salaries prompted another rise in input costs, margins were squeezed further as service provider charges declined for a remarkable forty-fifth consecutive month.

Regionally, the best performer in terms of the composite output measure was Ireland (59.7) ahead of Spain (58.8) and Italy (55.0 and a 53-month high). Germany (55.0) also had a good month but France (50.2 and a 7-month low) all but stagnated and remains a real problem for Eurozone economic growth.

The final PMI figures suggest that the Eurozone economy is on course for something close to a 0.4 percent quarterly growth rate in the current period, a slight improvement on the second quarter’s 0.3 percent rate. While this would be good news, faster rates of expansion will likely be needed if inflation is to meet the ECB’s near-2 percent target over the central bank’s 2-year policy horizon.

European Union : Retail Sales
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Highlights
Retail sales were slightly weaker than expected in August but with July’s decline more than halved, annual growth of purchases still comfortably exceeded the market consensus. Volumes were 0.4 percent firmer on the month after a 0.2 percent drop in June for a workday adjusted yearly rise of 2.7 percent, up from 1.7 percent last time.

July’s monthly rebound was led by a 0.8 percent jump in purchases of auto fuel and without this, non-food sales were just 0.1 percent higher having only stagnated in June. Food recorded a 0.2 percent advance. As a result, overall sales in July were 0.3 percent above their average level in the second quarter when they also increased 0.3 percent.

Regionally the advance was dominated by a 1.4 percent monthly jump in Germany. Spain (0.6 percent) also made a positive contribution but France (minus 0.2 percent) saw its first decline since March. Elsewhere, there were solid gains in Estonia (2.5 percent), Malta and Portugal (both 1.1 percent) but Slovakia (minus 0.2 percent) struggled.

Growth of retail sales has slowed in recent months, in keeping with signs that consumer confidence may have peaked, at least for now. According to the latest EU Commission survey, household morale improved slightly in August but still registered its second weakest reading since January. Consumption may continue to rise over coming months but the signs are that its contribution to real GDP growth will be only limited.
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I’ve been suggesting exports would slow more than what’s been reported so far, though year over year numbers are in decline. It may show up in revisions down the road:
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International Trade
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Highlights
The nation’s trade gap narrowed to a nearly as expected $41.9 billion in July following an upward revised gap of $45.2 billion in June (initially $43.8 billion). The improvement reflects a monthly rise of 0.4 percent in exports, which were led by autos, and a 1.1 percent contraction in imports that reflected a decline in pharmaceutical preparations and cell phones which helped offset a monthly rise in imports of oil where prices were higher in July.

Aside from autos, exports of industrial supplies, specifically nonmonetary gold, were strong in July while exports of capital goods also expanded. This helped offset a monthly decline in exports of civilian aircraft and consumer goods. Turning again to imports, other details include a rise in capital goods in what is the latest sign of life for business investment.

By nation, the gap with China widened slightly, to an unadjusted $31.6 billion in the month, while the gap with the EU widened more substantially to $15.2 billion, again unadjusted which makes month-to-month conclusions difficult. Gaps with Mexico and Canada both narrowed.

This report is another positive start to the quarter and will lift early third-quarter GDP estimates. But these will be cautious estimates as recent market turbulence pushes back conclusions and will make August’s trade data especially revealing.

Lower but still indicating ok expansion:
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Saudi price setting adjustment:

Aramco Cuts All October Crude Pricing to U.S., Northwest Europe

By Anthony DiPaola

Sept 3 (Bloomberg) — Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, cut pricing for all October oil sales to the U.S. and Northwest Europe and reduced the premium on its main Light grade to Asia by 30 cents a barrel.

State-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co. cut its official selling price for October sales to Asia of Arab Light crude to 10 cents a barrel more than the regional benchmark, the company said in an e-mailed statement. The discount for Medium grade crude for buyers in Asia widened 50 cents to $1.30 a barrel less than the benchmark.

Brent, a global oil benchmark, fell almost 50 percent last year as Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members chose to protect market share over cutting output to boost prices. Brent fell from over $100 a barrel in July 2014 to less than half that six months later. It traded at about $50 on Thursday.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries led by Saudi Arabia decided on June 5 to keep its production target unchanged to force higher-cost producers such as U.S. shale companies to cut back. The producer group has exceeded its target of 30 million barrels a day since May 2014.

Saudi Arabia reduced production in August to 10.5 million barrels a day, the first decline this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

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PMI’s, Saudi pricing, Redbook, ISM, Construction Spending

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Saudi Arabia to Cut Oil Premium to Asia Buyers for Oct.: Survey

By Serene Cheong and Sharon Cho

(Bloomberg) — World’s biggest crude exporter may reduce premium by 20c/bbl for Oct. sales of Arab Light grade to Asia, accord. to median est. in Bloomberg survey of 7 refiners and traders.

Oct. Arab Light official selling price est. at 20c/bbl above Oman-Dubai bmark vs 40c premium for Sept.

Sept. OSP was raised by 50c vs increase of 70c estd. in Bloomberg survey

Fcasts from 7 participants range from no change to 30c less than OSP for Sept.

Redbook
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Still trending lower:

ISM Mfg Index
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Highlights
The ISM index, at a lower-than-expected 51.1, is signaling the slowest rate of growth for the factory sector since May 2013. And the key details are uniformly weak.

New orders, at 51.7, are at one of the slowest rates of monthly growth of the recovery, since April 2013. Backlog orders, at 46.5, are in a third month of contraction. New export orders, at 46.5, are also in their third straight month of contraction and are at the lowest rate since July 2012.

ISM’s sample wasn’t hiring much in August, at 51.2 for a 1.5 point decline from July and the weakest reading since April. Production slowed and prices paid, at only a 39.0 level last since in March, points to deflationary pressures.

The good news for the economy is that this report failed to pick up the auto-led surge that lifted the factory sector noticeably in June and July. Still, the ISM is followed closely and will raise doubts, justifiably or not, over a September 17 rate hike.
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Still climbing but note that multifamily is falling off since the NY tax breaks expired:

Construction Spending
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Highlights
Led by strength in single-family homes, construction spending rose 0.7 percent in July while an upward revision to single-family homes added to a sharp upward revision to June, up 6 tenths and also at plus 0.7 percent. Year-on-year, total construction spending was up 13.7 percent in July.

Private residential construction rose 1.3 percent in July with construction spending on single-family homes up 2.1 percent vs a 0.5 percent gain in June that was initially reported at a 0.3 percent contraction. Spending on the more volatile multi-family category, which is much smaller in scale, fell 2.2 percent after spiking 5.5 percent in June. Year-on-year, both categories show robust gains, at 15.8 percent for single-family homes and 21.2 percent for multi-family.

Turning to private nonresidential construction, spending rose 1.5 percent in the month. In gains that belie concerns over weakness in business investment, manufacturing was very strong at plus 4.7 with power and transportation both at plus 2.1 percent in the month. But spending on public construction was negative, at minus 3.0 percent for educational buildings and minus 0.2 percent for highways & streets.

Housing and construction, which are domestic sectors insulated for global volatility, are posting some of the best numbers of any sectors in the economy right now and look to give 2015 substantial support.

These numbers aren’t inflation adjusted, so you can see real construction is still far below prior levels:
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The last spike correlates with the NY tax break that ended June 15, so it may be in the process of reversing:
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Dallas Fed, Chicago PMI, Japan Industrial Production, Italy Retail Sales, Comments on GDI and GDP

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Shockingly negative:

Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
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Not so good:

Chicago PMI
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Highlights
The headline for August looks solid, at 54.4 for the Chicago PMI, but the details look weak. New orders and production both slowed and order backlogs fell into deeper contraction. Employment contracted for a fourth straight month while prices paid fell back into contraction. Lifting the composite index are delays in shipments which point to tight conditions in the supply chain. Inventories rose sharply in the month and the report hints that the build, despite the weakness in orders, was likely intentional. But strength is less than convincing and this report suggests that activity for the Chicago-area economy may be flat going into year end.
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Japan : Industrial Production
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Italy : Retail Sales
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Highlights
Retailers had another poor month in June as nominal sales fell 0.3 percent versus May when they declined a slightly steeper revised 0.2 percent. Unadjusted annual growth actually accelerated from 0.1 percent to 1.7 percent but this was due to extra shopping days in this year’s report. Volume purchases were also 0.3 percent lower on the month.

Real gross domestic income (GDI) was up at only a .6% annual rate, only a bit higher than Q1, and in contrast to GDP being up 3.7% for the same quarter. This time looks to me like it’s GDP that’s out of line, as per my narrative where I don’t see any signs of any other sector stepping up and replacing the GDP supported by the now lost oil capital expenditures:
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The capital goods sector remains in retreat:
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Lots of anecdotals don’t jibe with 3.7% growth:

21 August 2015: ECRI’s WLI Growth Index Sinks Slightly More Into Contraction

(Econintersect) — ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward – remains in negative territory. This index had spent 28 weeks in negative territory then 15 weeks in positive territory – and now is in its second week in negative territory.

Rail Week Ending 22 August 2015: Some Improvement But Continued Deterioration Of Year-over-Year Rolling Averages

(Econintersect) — Week 33 of 2015 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) marginally expanded according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic expanded year-over-year, which accounts for approximately half of movements. but weekly railcar counts continued in contraction.

Lots of reasons to suspect net exports will revert in Q3, or be revised down for Q2 as blips up like this latest one tend to quickly reverse, especially with all the surveys showing exports in retreat:
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The goods component is looking in full retreat:
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And the service component of exports isn’t offering any material support either:
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And the Atlanta Fed’s Q3 GDP forecast of only 1.2% remains well below mainstream forecasts:
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WRKO Interview, GDP, Pending Home Sales, KC Fed, Corporate Profits, BOJ QE chart

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WRKO Interview

Higher than expected, still a bit lower year over year, and supported by heavy unsold inventory building that’s exceeding the growth of new orders, as well as an increase in net exports which is counter to all the survey information and other hard data as well. Net export reports tend to be volatile, with relatively large zigs followed by large zags. And note reported GDI- gross domestic income (the flip side of GDP)- was up only .6 as discussed below. And a few comments below on health care premium expense:

United States : GDP
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Highlights
The second-quarter did show a big bounce after all, up at a revised annualized growth rate of 3.7 percent which is 5 tenths over the Econoday consensus and just ahead of the high estimate. The initial estimate for second-quarter GDP was 2.3 percent. This report points to better-than-expected momentum going into the current quarter.

Consumer demand was strong with personal consumption expenditures at a 3.1 percent rate led by an 8.2 percent rate for durables, a gain that was tied to vehicle spending. Residential investment was very strong, at plus 7.8 percent, as was nonresidential fixed investment which, boosted by an upward revision to structures, came in at plus 3.2 percent. Inventories contributed to second-quarter growth as did improvement in net exports. Final demand proved very solid, at plus 3.5 percent. The GDP price index, unlike many other price readings, is showing some pressure, at 2.1 percent and just above the Fed’s general policy goal.

The economy’s acceleration is now much more respectable from the first quarter when growth, at only 0.6 percent, was depressed by heavy weather and special factors. Splitting the difference, first-half growth came in a bit over 2 percent which, as it turns out, is right in line with the similar performance of 2014 when first-quarter growth, again depressed by severe weather, fell 2.1 percent followed by a 4.6 percent surge in the second quarter. Growth in the third quarter last year was 4.3 percent which would be a very good performance for this third quarter.

The impact of today’s report on Fed policy for September’s FOMC is likely to be minimal. Focus at the upcoming meeting will be on the state of the global financial markets and, very importantly, the strength of next week’s employment report for August.

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Note the volatility of exports and imports, particularly for the last two quarters:
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The state and local increase looks suspect as well:
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The upward revisions to second-quarter growth also reflected the accumulation of $121.1 billion worth of inventories, up from the previous estimate of $110 billion. That meant inventories contributed 0.22 percentage point to GDP instead of subtracting 0.08 percentage point as reported last month.

Apparently health care premiums are counted as personal consumption expenditures, and with the ACA there’s a one time increase in progress as more people get funded to pay premiums. This is adding some support to GDP growth until it levels off.
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This has not necessarily increased actual health care services received or costs:
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Gross domestic income was also released. While GDP measures total sales, GDI measures total income received from those sales. So while those numbers are necessarily identical, in practice they tend to differ initially as they are calculated independently and entail numerous estimates, and converge over time as hard numbers become available.

This is from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis:

Real gross domestic income (GDI) — the value of the costs incurred and the incomes earned in the production of goods and services in the nation’s economy — increased 0.6 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent (revised) in the first. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.1 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 0.5 percent in the first quarter.

No acceleration here:

United States : Pending Home Sales Index
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Highlights
Pending home sales came in at the low end of expectations, up however a still respectable 0.5 percent. Regional data show a strong 4.0 percent gain for the Northeast, which however is the smallest region for existing home sales, and a 1.4 percent dip for the West. Sales were unchanged in the Midwest and rose 0.6 percent in the South which is the largest region. This report is positive but far from exceptional, pointing to no more than moderate growth ahead for existing home sales.

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The bad news in manufacturing continues:

United States : Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
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Highlights
Factory activity in the Kansas City Fed’s region remains in deep contraction, at minus 9 in August vs minus 7 in July and deeper than the Econoday consensus for minus 4. New orders are also at minus 9 with backlog orders at minus 21. These are deeply depressed readings that point to a long run of weak activity in the months ahead. Production is already far into the negative column at minus 16 with hiring at minus 10. Price readings in the August report are in contraction.

This report speaks to significant distress for the region which is getting hit by the oil-led fall in commodity prices. Taken together, regional reports have been mixed to soft so far this month, pointing to slowing for a factory sector that got a bit boost from the auto sector in June and July. The Dallas Fed report, which like this one has been badly depressed, will be posted on Monday.
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This is amateur hour.

After 20 years of this stuff, they still just need more time…
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Chemical Activity Barometer, Durable Goods Orders, Mtg Purchase apps, Oil Inventory

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Sagging along with industrial production:
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Better than expected which is nice, but nothing to get excited about. Durable goods tend to chug along at 3 or 4% pretty much regardless of what else happens. But this time they’ve been disrupted to the downside by the oil capex collapse. And note the large year over year drop is due to the comp with last year’s spike from aircraft orders and should reverse next month, but the trend remains weak:
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Still up from last year, but more recently this year it’s been going sideways at best, and remains severely depressed:

United States : MBA Mortgage Applications
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Looks to me like increased demand and falling domestic production are doing their thing to cause WTI to converge with Brent as well as increase US imports over time:

United States : EIA Petroleum Status Report
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Highlights
A dip in imports made for a 5.5 million barrel draw in weekly oil inventories to 450.8 million. Gasoline and distillate inventories both rose, up 1.7 million and 1.4 million respectively. Demand indications for gasoline are very strong, up a year-on-year 5.8 percent. WTI bounced 50 cents higher to $39.75 in immediate reaction to the headline draw in oil before quickly easing back to $39.25.
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Redbook retail sales, Inflation adjustment, China, House prices, Consumer confidence

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Still depressed
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Lower than the Fed thought:

U.S. inflation probably lower than reported, Fed study says

Aug 24 (Reuters) — U.S. inflation in the first half of the year was probably “markedly lower” than reported according to the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank. Researchers at the regional Fed bank had earlier found that the very weak readings for economic growth in the early part of the year were likely due to inadequate adjustments for seasonal fluctuations. The same researchers applied similar methodology to inflation data and found that core PCE inflation was probably overstated by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points in the first two quarters of the year, respectively.

This does nothing for output and employment:

China’s central bank pumps in billions to ease liquidity strain

Aug 25 (Xinhua) — The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) conducted 150 billion yuan (23.4 billion U.S. dollars) of seven-day reverse repurchase agreements (repo). The reverse repo was priced to yield 2.5 percent, unchanged from the yield on a net injection last week of 150 billion yuan using reverse repos, according to a PBOC’s statement. The PBOC also channelled another 110 billion yuan via its medium-term lending facility. Despite the cash injection the benchmark overnight Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) climbed by 1.3 basis points to 1.879 percent.

Not a good sign:

S&P Case-Shiller HPI
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Highlights
Inventories may be low and sales rates firm, but both Case-Shiller and FHFA are pointing to a surprising flat spot for home-price appreciation. Case-Shiller’s 20-city adjusted index fell 0.1 percent in June vs Econoday expectations for a 0.1 percent rise. Year-on-year, 20-city prices, whether adjusted or unadjusted, are unchanged at plus 5.0 percent. This rate has been inching higher but looks like it may be ready to fall back unless prices pick up.
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A bit less than expected and still at very depressed levels:

New Home Sales
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Settled back to depressed levels from last month’s blip up:

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
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Consumer confidence bounced up with lower gas prices, as it’s one man one vote, not one dollar one vote, and so hasn’t been a reliable indicator of retail sales.
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