Signs of stabilizing: So the ECB threatened more negative rates and QE, both placebos at best, analogous to spraying the crowd with a barrage of blanks, which nonetheless dispersed the crowd. However, with the record and growing euro area 31 billion trade surplus last month and a growing US trade deficit augmented by increased petro […]
Category Archives: CBs
WRKO Interview, GDP, Pending Home Sales, KC Fed, Corporate Profits, BOJ QE chart
WRKO Interview Higher than expected, still a bit lower year over year, and supported by heavy unsold inventory building that’s exceeding the growth of new orders, as well as an increase in net exports which is counter to all the survey information and other hard data as well. Net export reports tend to be volatile, […]
quick macro update
It all started when the FICA tax cuts and a few of the Bush tax reductions were allowed to expire at the end of 2012, followed by the sequesters a few months later 2013. That resulted in 2013 GDP growth of a bit less than 2% or so that might have been closer to 4% […]
Fed white paper, building permits, transport charts, Japan trade
So someone on high sees it much like I do… ;) In a white paper dissecting the U.S. central bank’s actions to stem the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, Stephen D. Williamson, vice president of the St. Louis Fed, finds fault with three key policy tenets. Specifically, he believes the zero interest rates in […]
Empire manufacturing, housing market index, EU merchandise trade
The lack of support from the lost oil capex continues to ripple out: United States : Empire State Mfg Survey Highlights Out of the blue, the Empire State index has plunged deeply into negative column this month, to minus 14.92 in August vs plus 3.86 in July. This is by far the weakest reading of […]
China, Germany, Productivity, NFIB Index, Redbook, Wholesale Trade
A few thoughts: China’s US Tsy holding had been falling perhaps because they were selling $ to buy Yuan to keep it within in the prior band. Pretty much all exporting nation’s currencies have already weakened vs the $, including the Yen and Euro, so this is a bit of a ‘catch up.’ In a […]
Greece loses the gambit
It now looks to me like Greece has lost the wrestling match. The other EU members are very sensitive to market reactions. The question was whether the EU economy needed Greece, and the answer is now looking more and more like ‘no’. Not a good position for Greece to find itself after posturing as if […]
Comments on Greece
So the euro is down a % or 2 because of the Greek debt drama. Generally currencies go down on debt drama when the debt is in a foreign currency and it’s feared the govt will have to sell local currency to get the fx to make the payments. For example, the peso might go […]
China cuts rates, Atlanta Fed, car sale comment, Greek PM comments
As the carpenter said about his piece of wood, ‘no matter how much I cut off it’s still too short’: China’s central bank cut its benchmark lending rates by 25 basis points to 4.85 percent on Saturday, the fourth reduction since November, as it gears up to lower borrowing costs and support a slowing economy. […]
claims, producer prices, euro comments, public sector jobs
Just a reminder, claims measure those losing jobs who file for benefits, not new hires: Jobless Claims The euro has been moving higher vs the dollar, as CB selling winds down as they reach the lower limits of their reserve targets along with fundamental support from a large and growing EU current account surplus that’s […]