Quite a few price increases, which the media now calls ‘inflation’ even though inflation is a continuous increase in the price level: The annual inflation rate in the US surged to 6.2% in October of 2021, the highest since November of 1990 and above forecasts of 5.8%. Upward pressure was broad-based, with energy costs recording […]
Category Archives: Commodities
NY Mfg survey, Home builder’s index, oil losses, Japan, China trade, euro trade
A lot worse than expected and still deep in contraction: Empire State Mfg Survey Highlights For the seventh straight month, the Empire State report is signaling significant contraction for the manufacturing sector. The general business conditions index for February came in below low-end expectations, at minus 16.64 vs even deeper contraction of minus 19.37 in […]
Copper, Japan, Corp tax policy
They must have found a way for their workers to live on fewer calories… Copper Miners’ Pain Doesn’t Stop Buildup Nov 23 (WSJ) —Global copper production is on track to hit an all-time high of 18.7 million metric tons this year, according to BMO Capital Markets. The cost of producing a pound of copper at […]
Brent Spot Chart, China, Atlanta Fed
Looks a lot more negative since the October 5 Saudi price cuts than the futures markets. These price are more indicative of prices of physical oil vs financial portfolio activities: Note the lack of results of ‘monetary policy’: China’s October factory, services surveys show economy still wobbly Nov 1 (Reuters) — Activity in China’s manufacturing […]
Atlanta Fed, Oil inventory, Chemical Index, Mtg Purchase Apps
Down to .8: Crude inventory that used to pile up from high cost shale production is coming down as drilling is way down and existing well output declines some 70% in its first two years. Meanwhile, US imports increase as domestic production decreases: Crude stocks at the Cushing delivery hub fell by 748,000 barrels, data […]
Lux GDP, Iowa, PC shipments, Lumber Prices, Oil Prices
Even Luxembourg peaked after oil prices collapsed: Ag slowdown imperils state revenue By Donnelle Eller Oct 12 (Des Moines Register) — Money coming into Iowa’s government coffers was flat the first quarter of this fiscal year, raising concern about how big an effect the slowing farm economy could have on the state budget. State revenues […]
Credit Check, Atlanta Fed, ECRI, Rail Traffic, Oil Comment
Growth rates still trending lower: Growth rate edging higher from very low levels: Back down to 1% for Q3: On October 5th Saudi price cuts were announced, as they increased discounts to various benchmark prices by substantial amounts. If the reports were accurate, the discount increases create a downward price spiral dynamic as previously described. […]
France PMI, Germany PMI, EU PMI, EU Retail Sales, UK service PMI, US Trade, ISM Non Manufacturing, Saudi Pricing
France : PMI Composite Highlights French private sector activity in August expanded at a significantly slower pace than indicated in the flash report according to the final PMI data for the month. At just 50.2, a 7-month low, the key composite output index was revised down an unusually large 1.1 points versus its preliminary reading […]
China, Saudi Output, Credit Check
This monetarist stuff doesn’t work: China removes regulation on loan-to-deposit ratio Aug 28 (Xinhua) — China’s top legislature on Saturday adopted an amendment to the Law on Commercial Banks, removing a 75-percent loan-to-deposit ratio stipulation. China has kept the 75-percent ratio since the law was enacted and put into effect in 1995. “The ratio was […]
Personal Income and Outlays, Consumer Sentiment, Japan Household Spending, China Profits
Everything pretty much as expected and the same, helped by vehicle sales which are both volatile and leveling off: United States : Personal Income and Outlays Highlights There’s no hurry for a rate hike based on the July personal income and outlays report where inflation readings are very quiet. Core PCE prices rose only 0.1 […]