Retail sales, Consumer sentiment, NY manufacturing survey

Posted on March 16, 2022 @ 3:53 pm (Wednesday) by WARREN MOSLER

Gone flat post covid, adjusted for inflation:

The post covid slump continues, and now there are war disruptions:

US Consumer Sentiment Lowest since 2011
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US fell to 59.7 in March of 2022 from 62.8 in February, below market forecasts of 61.4, preliminary estimates showed. It is the lowest reading since November of 2011, as inflation expectations rose sharply due to a surge in fuel prices exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The current economic conditions index fell to 67.8 from 68.2 while the expectations gauge sank to 54.4 from 59.4. The year-ahead expected inflation rate (5.4%) rose to its highest level since 1981, and expected gas prices posted their largest monthly upward surge in decades. Personal finances were expected to worsen in the year ahead by the largest proportion since the surveys started in the mid-1940 pointing out that the high inflation rate is impacting incomes.

Services pmi, German survey, UK retail sales, oil, new home sales

Posted on September 24, 2021 @ 1:23 pm (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

Pretty much the whole world had a covid dip, bounce, and most recently a retreat as the economy appears to be rapidly decelerating as unemployment benefits expired and what’s left of the new fiscal spending is relatively small and keeps getting pushed out:

Crude oil is another story. There was a covid dip as the drop in demand exceeded Saudi output, which caused them to lose control of output. Now that demand has recovered they are back in control of prices, and currently they are in price hike mode:

Up a bit last month but still looking depressed historically:

Rig count, US Services, UK services, Euro zone services

Posted on March 24, 2020 @ 1:53 pm (Tuesday) by WARREN MOSLER

Oil capex collapsing:

Service sectors collapsing:

US PMI’s, KC Fed, Euro area services, UK services, Germany services and GDP

Posted on November 22, 2019 @ 3:42 pm (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

Tariffs taking their toll and no end in sight as global deceleration continues for both goods and services.

These surveys are up a bit this month but still very low and too soon to suggest a reversal:

Note how this blipped up last month but then resumed the downtrend:

Deceleration resumes after a small blip up last month:

Germany Private Sector Contracts for 3rd Month

The IHS Markit Germany Composite PMI increased to 49.2 in November 2019 from 48.9 in the previous month and below market expectations of 49.4, preliminary estimates showed. Still, it is the third consecutive month of contraction in the private sector, as manufacturing output continued to shrink and services activity growth slowed to a 38-month low. New orders went down for the fifth straight month while exports orders decreased at softer pace. Job creation was virtually unchanged after falling in October for the first time in six years. Also, lower backlogs of work were reported for the thirteenth month running. In terms of prices, output charge inflation was modest, staying close to October’s 38-month low. Meanwhile, expectations towards output in the next 12 months turned positive for the first time in four months.