Retail sales, Consumer sentiment, NY manufacturing survey

Gone flat post covid, adjusted for inflation: The post covid slump continues, and now there are war disruptions: US Consumer Sentiment Lowest since 2011 The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US fell to 59.7 in March of 2022 from 62.8 in February, below market forecasts of 61.4, preliminary estimates showed. It is the […]

Services pmi, German survey, UK retail sales, oil, new home sales

Pretty much the whole world had a covid dip, bounce, and most recently a retreat as the economy appears to be rapidly decelerating as unemployment benefits expired and what’s left of the new fiscal spending is relatively small and keeps getting pushed out: Crude oil is another story. There was a covid dip as the […]

US PMI’s, KC Fed, Euro area services, UK services, Germany services and GDP

Tariffs taking their toll and no end in sight as global deceleration continues for both goods and services. These surveys are up a bit this month but still very low and too soon to suggest a reversal: Note how this blipped up last month but then resumed the downtrend: Deceleration resumes after a small blip […]

ECB trade comments, US rates, UK, Germany, France, Japan

Someone else agrees with me about the tariffs and the global trade collapse: CNBC: The trade war is weighing ‘like a big, dark cloud’ on the global economy, says Christine Lagarde. And this would function like a tax increase: Bloomberg: President Trump Doubles Down on Call for Negative Interest Rates. Today’s tariff induced bad news: