Category Archives: Economic Releases

Jobs, Atlanta Fed, Rail Traffic

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The Fed is looking for ‘some improvement’ in the jobs market. But looks like deterioration to me? The number of jobs fell for the second straight month, the year over year growth rate continued to fall, the unemployment rate and the participation rate were unchanged, earnings growth remains very low. All that went up was hours worked, by less than a tenth.

Employment Situation
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Highlights
The numbers aren’t spectacular but they’re solid enough to keep a September rate hike in play. Non-farm payrolls rose just about as expected, up 215,000 in July with upward revisions adding 14,000 to the prior two months. The unemployment rate is unchanged at 5.3 percent. Wages show some traction, up 0.2 percent in the month with the year-on-year rate over 2 percent at 2.1 percent. The average workweek is up, rising to 34.6 hours from a long run at 34.5. The labor force participation rate, which dropped sharply in June, held at 62.6 percent.

Other details look surprisingly solid with payrolls rising 60,000 in trade & transportation, for a third straight strong gain, and professional & business services rising 40,000 to extend their long healthy run. Retailers continue to add jobs, up 36,000 for their third straight strong gain with the motor vehicle subset up 13,000 and reflecting the strength of car sales. Manufacturing, which is usually weak, rose a notable 15,000 in the month with construction, where lack of skilled labor is being reported, showing a modest gain of 6,000.

Another plus in the report is a decline in Janet Yellen’s favorite reading, the broadly defined U-6 unemployment rate which is down a notch to 10.4 percent. If the August employment report a month from now looks this good, a rate hike at the September FOMC will be a lock.

Improvement? Looks more like deterioration?

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Slow start to Q3 here:

Latest forecast

August 6 (GDPNow)

The first GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015 was 1.0 percent on August 6. The model projects that lower inventory investment will subtract 1.7 percentage points from third quarter real GDP growth. Real GDP grew 2.3 percent in the second quarter according to the advance estimate from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Rail Week Ending 01 August 2015: Traffic Down 1.8% in July

By Steven Hansen

August 7 (Econointersect)

Econintersect: Week 30 of 2015 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) contracted according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic contracted year-over-year, which accounts for approximately half of movements. and weekly railcar counts continued in contraction.

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Mortgage Purchase Apps, EU Retail Sales, Payroll Tax, ADP, Trade, Equity Comment

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While still historically very low, purchase apps are now way up over last year’s particularly depressed levels. Some are replacing all cash buyers, but the increase is also in line with increased existing home sales.

While new home sales were soft, turnover of existing homes has been increasing, and while not directly increasing GDP, existing home sales are generally associated with purchases of furniture, appliances, and other home improvements, and of course real estate commissions.

MBA Mortgage Applications
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Highlights
A drop in rates helped boost mortgage activity in the July 31 week both for home purchases, up 3.0 percent in the week, and for refinancing which rose 6.0 percent. The strength in purchase applications, which are up 23 percent vs this time last year, is a positive indication for home sales. The average 30-year fixed mortgage for conforming loans ($417,000 or less) fell 4 basis points in the week to 4.13 percent.

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EU retail sales

European Union : Retail Sales
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Highlights
Retail sales were surprisingly weak in June. A 0.6 percent monthly fall was the first decline since March and followed a slightly smaller revised 0.1 percent rise in May. Annual workday adjusted growth of purchases was 1.2 percent, down from 2.6 percent in both mid-quarter and April.

June’s setback was primarily attributable to a 0.8 percent monthly drop in sales of food, drink and tobacco. Non-food products, excluding auto fuel, were off only 0.2 percent, although even this was enough to wipe out May’s entire rise. Fuel purchases were flat on the month after a 0.2 percent dip last time.

Regionally, headline weakness was dominated by a 2.3 percent monthly slump in Germany although Spain (minus 0.4 percent) also struggled. More promisingly, France (0.1 percent) saw sales increase for a third consecutive period and there were decent gains in Austria (1.3 percent), Belgium, Latvia and Lithuania (all 0.8 percent) and Estonia (0.7 percent).

The June data make for a second quarter increase in Eurozone retail sales of only 0.3 percent, less than a third of the rate achieved in the previous period and just half of the fourth quarter pace. This does not bode well for real GDP growth. Moreover, the EU Commission’s economic sentiment survey found consumer sentiment falling in July so it may be that the third quarter got off to a less than robust start too. That said, Greek developments are clearly having some impact and a more concrete resolution of the crisis there might be enough to get households happy to spend again.

Big drop in Federal withholding:

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Lower than expected, and June revised down a bit as well, all in line with many recent surveys:

ADP Employment Report
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Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth is strong, but it has moderated since the beginning of the year. Layoffs in the energy industry and weaker job gains in manufacturing are behind the slowdown. Nonetheless, even at this slower pace of growth, the labor market is fast approaching full employment.”
Read more at Calculated Risk Blog

About as expected with last month’s revision:

United States : International Trade
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Seems the drop in oil prices has been offset by non oil imports, as the trade deficit is looking somewhat wider:

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Both exports and imports are down which indicates a weakening global economy:

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The chart shows the trend of the non petroleum deficit has resumed it’s increase:

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products (wild swings earlier this year were due to West Coast port slowdown).
Read more at Calculated Risk Blog
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Didn’t know we exported any consumer goods!
;)

Exports (Exhibits 3, 6, and 7) Exports of goods decreased $0.2 billion to $127.6 billion in June. Exports of goods on a Census basis decreased $0.5 billion. • Capital goods decreased $0.8 billion. o Telecommunications equipment decreased $0.3 billion. • Industrial supplies and materials decreased $0.6 billion. o Finished metal shapes decreased $0.3 billion. Consumer goods increased $0.8 billion.

Stocks up because jobs were weak and a fed spokesman thought the economy was too weak for a rate hike. ;)

Futures jump on ADP miss, Powell comments

By Jenny Cosgrave

August 5 (CNBC)

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Redbook Retail Sales, Factory Orders, Econ Confidence

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Speaks for itself:

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Nice to see an up month after a down one, but the year over year chart says it all:

Factory Orders
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Highlights
Factory orders rose nearly as expected in June, up 1.8 percent for only the second gain in the last 11 months. The durable goods component, initially released last week, is unrevised at plus 3.4 percent in a gain distorted by aircraft orders but one that does reflect a pop higher for capital goods. The non-durables component, data released with today’s report, rose 0.4 percent on order gains for oil and chemicals.

Orders for civilian aircraft jumped 65 percent in the month following, in routine up-and-down fashion for this component, a 32 percent downswing in May. Industries reporting respectable gains include 0.5 percent for furniture and 0.6 percent for motor vehicles as well as a 1.5 percent gain for machinery. Orders for energy equipment bounced back 5.5 percent after sinking 25 percent in May. Year-on-year, energy equipment is down 51 percent.

Looking at totals again, shipments rose a very solid 0.5 percent with shipments of core capital goods up 0.3 percent. The latter, which is a key reading that excludes aircraft, isn’t spectacular but is still a solid gain for business investment. Unfilled orders, which have been in contraction most of the year, were unchanged in June. Inventories rose 0.6 percent in a build that falls in line with shipments, keeping the inventory-to-shipments ratio at a manageable 1.35.

Today’s report offers rare good news for a factory sector that, due to weak exports and the collapse in oil & gas equipment, has been struggling to stay above water for the last year.

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Minor index but another indicator of a drop in ‘confidence’:

Gallup US ECI
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Highlights
July’s Economic Confidence Index averaged minus 12 in July, down from minus 8 in June and the lowest monthly average since October 2014. The drop is attributable chiefly to Americans’ increasing view that the economy is getting worse rather than better.

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PMC, Personal Income, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, Car Sales

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Another PMC, and an estimated $45 million check to Boston’s Dana Farber for cancer research! Congrats to all the donors and participants- over 6,000 riders and thousands of volunteers handling the logistics!

Special nod to Billy and Meredith Starr for a most successful 35th PMC and total donations approaching $500 million!!!

And thanks to all of you who contributed and those who will be contributing… ;)

(Note Elizabeth’s sandals with spd clips :)
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Personal Income and Outlays

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Highlights
The consumer showed less life in June with inflation remaining very quiet. Consumer spending rose an as-expected 0.2 percent in June, down from a revised spike of 0.7 percent in May with the slowing tied in part to lower vehicle sales. Personal income, boosted by gains for rents and transfers that offset slight slowing in wages, rose slightly more than expected at 0.4 percent.

The key inflation reading in this report, the core PCE price index, rose only 0.1 percent for a very quiet 1.3 percent year-on-year rate that won’t be moving up expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate hike. The year-on-year rate is at a 4-1/2-year low and has remained below 1.5 percent since November. The overall price index rose 0.2 percent in June with its year-on-year rate, reflecting the collapse in oil prices, at only plus 0.3 percent.

The savings rate is below 5.0 percent at 4.8 percent but remains on the high side, which points to consumer health and hints at underlying spending strength. The economy is just bumping along right now, pointing to no urgency for policy change.

Wage income down:

PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS: JUNE 2015

August 3 (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
Wages and salaries increased $18.3 billion in June, compared with an increase of $32.0 billion in May. Private wages and salaries increased $16.0 billion in June, compared with an increase of $29.6 billion in May. Government wages and salaries increased $2.3 billion, compared with an increase of $2.4 billion.

Without the big jump in reported personal dividend income personal income would have been lower:

Rental income of persons increased $7.4 billion in June, compared with an increase of $7.7 billion in May. Personal income receipts on assets (personal interest income plus personal dividend income) increased $20.2 billion, compared with an increase of $8.4 billion. Personal current transfer receipts increased $8.6 billion, compared with an increase of $8.9 billion.

Lower tax payments helped disposable personal income but it’s still a very low rate of growth:

Personal current taxes increased $7.5 billion in June, compared with an increase of $12.5 billion in May. Disposable personal income (DPI) — personal income less personal current taxes — increased $60.6 billion, or 0.5 percent, in June, compared with an increase of $53.8 billion, or 0.4 percent, in May.

Real DPI — DPI adjusted to remove price changes — increased 0.2 percent in June, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent in May.

Like most all indicators, there’s been a falling off since oil prices broke during Q4 2014:

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source: Bureau of Economic Statistics
Disposable personal income was revised up $19.7 billion, or 0.2 percent, for 2012; was revised down $109.5 billion, or 0.9 percent, for 2013; and was revised down $76.1 billion, or 0.6 percent, for 2014.

Personal outlays was revised down $30.8 billion, or 0.3 percent, for 2012; was revised down $91.4 billion, or 0.8 percent, for 2013; and was revised down $63.7 billion, or 0.5 percent, for 2014. Revisions to personal outlays primarily reflected downward revisions to PCE.

Exports again, and now employment showing weakness in the latest reports:

ISM Mfg Index

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Highlights
Weak employment and continued contraction in exports held down the manufacturing index which slipped 0.8 tenths in July to a lower-than-expected 52.7 to indicate slowing monthly activity for ISM’s sample. Employment growth slowed nearly 3 points to 52.7 while new export orders fell 1.5 points to 48.0 for the 5th sub-50 contractionary reading of the last 7 months.

But there are signs of strength in the report led by new orders which rose 1/2 point to 56.5 which is the strongest reading of the year for this most important of all readings. The gain contrasts with the drop in export orders and points to strength in the domestic economy. Production is also strong at 56.0.

But another negative in the report is sharp contraction in backlogs, down 4.5 points to 42.5 to signal the sharpest draw in nearly 3 years. This drop helps explain the slowing in employment but is offset in the longer term outlook by the rise in new orders.

This report is mixed with export orders pointing to continuing headwinds for the manufacturing sector though total new orders are a plus. Note that this report was posted before its usually scheduled 10:00 a.m. ET release time.

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Construction up nicely vs last year this time, but not so much vs earlier this year, and some of it is the NY thing regarding getting started ahead of expiring credits as previously discussed, which look to have been followed by a sharp fall off:

Construction Spending

source: Econoday.com
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Highlights
Held back by a slight and unexpected decline in single-family homes, construction spending inched only 0.1 percent higher in June. Spending on new single-family homes slipped 0.3 percent in June following gains of 0.5 percent and 1.0 percent in the prior two months. Showing much greater strength are multi-family units, up 2.8 percent in June following prior gains of 1.3 and 3.4 percent. Year-on-year, single-family homes are up a very strong 12.8 percent while multi-family is up 23.7 percent.

The biggest drag to June comes from the private non-residential category which fell 1.3 percent reflecting sweeping monthly declines for offices, commercial structures, factories along with power and transportation spending. On the plus side were construction for highways and education.

Housing permit data point to strength ahead for single-family construction spending along with continued standout strength for the multi-family category. But the decline on the non-residential side does underscore weakness right now in business investment. But taken together, total spending is still up a very constructive 12.0 percent year-on-year and the second-half outlook is still positive.

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Not adjusted for inflation:

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Motor vehicle sales looking up, estimated at a 17.5 million annual rate, almost as high as May and split between domestic and imports isn’t out yet. Domestically produced car sales have been down year over year:

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Pending Home Sales, Atlanta Fed, MTG Purch. Apps

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Confirms other indicators of housing a bit volatile but still depressed and going nowhere:

Pending Home Sales Index
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Highlights
In a negative for the summer home-sale outlook, pending sales of existing homes fell a sharp 1.8 percent in June. The low-end Econoday forecast was for a gain of 0.4 percent. The year-on-year rate slowed from the low double digits to plus 8.2 percent, which is very respectable but slightly lower than the trend for final sales of existing homes.

Weakness was centered in the South and the Midwest where year-on-year pending sales are on the soft side, at plus 7.8 percent and 5.0 percent respectively. Both the West and Northeast posted small monthly gains in June with year-on-year sales rates at plus 10.4 percent and with the Northeast, the smallest region for home sales, in the top spot at 12.0 percent.

This report is the latest to take the edge off the housing outlook which had been rising sharply following weakness early in the year. Strength in housing may contribute less than expected to the second-half economy.

At 2.4%, the Atlanta Fed’s model is below most all mainstream forecasters of tomorrows initial govt. estimate for Q2 GDP. A weak number wouldn’t surprise me, but in any case I expect downward revisions as June trade and inventory numbers are released, and as past releases are revised lower as well. The problem is nothing has stepped up to replace the lost oil capex, both domestically which is a direct loss to US sales and output, and internationally which is cutting into US exports.

Latest forecast — July 27, 2015

July 27 (GDPNow)

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Mortgage purchase apps have held relative steady and at historically depressed levels after a brief dip earlier this year. They are higher than last year, but there are also fewer all cash purchases and therefore more mortgage financed purchases for an given number of sales.

MBA Mortgage Applications
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Highlights
The purchase index was little changed in the latest week, up 0.1 percent, but continues to trend much higher than a year ago, up 18 percent. The refinance index rose 2.0 percent in the week. Rates moved lower with the average 30-year mortgage for conforming loans ($417,000 or less) down 6 basis points to 4.17 percent.

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Redbook Retail Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices, PMI Services, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed, Oil Capex, Truck Tonnage

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Still bad:

source: Econoday.com
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Softening:

source: Econoday.com
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I don’t put much weight on Markit surveys, but the optimism comment is interesting:


source: Econoday.com
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Highlights

Service sector growth is strengthening slightly this month based on Markit’s July flash index which is up 4 tenths to a very solid 55.2. New orders are at a 3-month high and are getting a boost from both consumer spending and from business customers, the latter a welcome signal of strength for business investment. Backlogs are up and so is hiring. But optimism in the 12-month outlook, perhaps shaken by the outlook for the global economy, is the softest it’s been in three years. Input prices continue to rise but final prices are flat. This report is mostly upbeat and, despite the easing in the outlook, points to solid contribution from the service sector.

This kind of drop is concerning, and I’ve been watching for employment, a lagging indicator, to take a dive:

source: Econoday.com
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Highlights

Consumer confidence has weakened substantially this month, to 90.9 which is more than 6 points below Econoday’s low estimate. Weakness is centered in the expectations component which is down nearly 13 points to 79.9 and reflects sudden pessimism in the jobs outlook where an unusually large percentage, at 20 percent even, see fewer jobs opening up six months from now.

Less severe is weakness in the present situation component which is down nearly 3 points to 107.4. Here, slightly more, at 26.7 percent, say jobs are hard to get but this is still low for this reading.

A striking negative in the report is a drop in buying plans for autos which confirms weakness elsewhere in the report. Inflation expectations are steady at 5.1 percent which is soft for this reading.

This report is citing problems in Greece and China as possible factors for the decline in expectations, but US consumers are typically insulated from international events. The decline in expectations, mirrored earlier this morning by a similar decline in the service-sector outlook, may be sending early hints of second-half slowing, slowing that could push back of course the Fed’s expected rate hike.

A bit better, but another reference to softening employment. And note the volatility of this series, with moves up often followed quickly with moves down:

source: Econoday.com
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Highlights

The Richmond Fed is reporting the best strength of any manufacturing region this month, at 13 which is above the Econoday top-end estimate. New orders are especially strong, up 7 points to 17, with backlog orders also rising, up 7 points to 10. Shipments are strong, capacity utilization is up and inventories, because of the activity, are being drawn down. Hiring, however, is slowing. Price data show slight pressure for inputs but no pressure for finished goods.

This report contrasts with much slower rates of growth in the New York and Philadelphia Fed regions and sharply contrasts with recent data from the Dallas and Kansas City Feds where manufacturing, due to the energy sector, is in deep contraction. But today’s result is a welcome positive, suggesting that manufacturing may yet pick up this year and a reminder of strength in yesterday’s durable goods report.

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This had been estimated at $100 billion:

source: Financial Times
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Durable Goods Orders, Dallas Fed

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Note how they blame the dollar for the drop in exports rather than the oil price drop
which removed $ income from foreign producers, thereby reducing their ability to buy US goods and services.
And notice the year over year chart remains negative.

source: Econoday.com

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Highlights

June was a strong month for durable goods orders which rose a slightly higher-than-expected 3.4 percent. Excluding transportation, which is where aircraft orders are tracked, new orders rose 0.8 percent which is near top-end expectations. Core capital goods orders, which also exclude aircraft, rose a very solid 0.9 percent. These readings are some of the highest of the last year and offer welcome evidence of a long awaited pop higher for what is, however, a still depressed factory sector.

Turning briefly to civilian aircraft, orders surged 103 percent after falling 46 percent in May. Swings in aircraft are common in this report and reflect monthly swings in Boeing orders. Other industries include a small gain for motor vehicles and for computers & electronics as well as large gains for machinery and fabricated metals. In a hint of strength for the construction sector, electrical equipment jumped an especially sharp 2.8 percent in the month.

Turning back to totals, shipments inched 0.1 percent higher with shipments of core capital goods edging 0.1 percent lower and including downward revisions to both May and April. The shipment readings for capital goods will not be lifting second-quarter GDP estimates for business investment. Unfilled orders ended two months of contraction with a 0.1 percent gain while inventories rose 0.4 percent, a modest build that keeps the stock-to-sales ratio unchanged at 1.68.

This is only the third monthly gain for durable goods orders going all the way back to July, which was before of course the drop in oil prices and rise in the value of the dollar, the former having torpedoed the energy sector and the second having flattened the nation’s exports. Today’s report will confirm for many expectations that the negative effects of the strong dollar on exports are beginning to ease.

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The longer term chart shows how this type of decline is most often associated with recessions:

source: FRED

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You can also see the last run up was caused by the last burst of oil exploration chasing $100 oil, and now we are back in the soup:

source: FRED

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Actual shipments of consumer goods negative year over year:

source: FRED

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Nothing good here, and note the attempt at cheer leading:

source: Econoday.com

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Highlights

Contraction in the Texas manufacturing sector continues to ease, to minus 4.6 in July vs minus 7.0 in June and minus 20.8 May. For the first time this year, new orders actually rose in the month but only slightly, up 0.7. Unfilled orders, however, remain in contraction for an eighth straight month at minus 6.5. Lack of unfilled orders is not good for employment which is in the negative column for a third straight month at minus 3.3.

Among other readings, production, at minus 1.9, is in contraction for a fifth straight month while shipments, at minus 4.3, are in contraction for a sixth straight month. Inventories are up and price readings are mute. In a positive, the company outlook, at plus 1.2, is in the positive column for the first time this year.

Nowhere has the crunch in the energy sector been more evident than in this report. Hopefully, however, the negative effects from the prior plunge in oil prices are, as the Federal Reserve expects, beginning to ease.

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PMI Manufacturing Index, New Home Sales, Redfin Real Estate Report, Rail Traffic

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source: Econoday.com
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Highlights

The manufacturing PMI is holding steady, coming in at a composite 53.8 in the July flash and right in line with the 54.0 final reading for June and June’s 53.4 flash. Though respectable, these are soft rates of growth for this report which runs hot relative to other manufacturing data and where the long-run average is 54.3.

New orders and production are both accelerating this month though hiring is holding down the composite. The report cites reduced capital spending in the energy sector as a negative for the sample, and it says some firms are focusing their efforts on domestic markets given weakness in export markets.

Other details include a fall-off in input buying due in part to excess inventories. Price readings remain subdued.

This report is pointing to little change for the manufacturing sector this month, a sector that has been struggling this year and looks to continue to struggle through the second half.

Not good. This is what happens in a recession. And in a slowdown greater supply indicates excess inventory:

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Highlights

Volatility is common for new home sales and there’s plenty of it the June report where the headline plunged 6.8 percent to a far lower-than-expected annual rate of 482,000 and where revisions erased 40,000 from the prior two months.

But there is some good news in the report and that’s a surge in supply of new homes on the market, up 3.4 percent in the month to 215,000. Greater supply points to greater sales ahead. On a sales basis, supply is at 5.4 months vs 4.8 and 4.7 in June and May.

Prices look soft in the report, at a median $281,800 which is up 0.5 percent in the month but down 1.8 percent year-on-year. The latter reading points to deep discounting compared to the year-on-year sales gain of 18.1 percent.

Regional data show big drops in the West and the Midwest in the month and a smaller drop in the South. But the Northeast is showing life with a second straight solid gain. Year-on-year, the South and Northeast lead with respective sales gains of 23.7 and 23.1 percent with the West and Midwest lagging at 10.9 and 5.7 percent.

The sales data in today’s report, with the June rate the lowest of the year, are likely to shave second-quarter GDP slightly and take some of the shine off the housing outlook.

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From Redfin:

source: CNBC.com

Sales of existing U.S. homes rose to the highest level in eight years, according to the National Association of Realtors, but that may be the peak for the year. One real estate brokerage claims consumer demand for housing took a sharp turn for the worse in June, as potential buyers balked at higher home prices.

“People look at houses and don’t pull the trigger,” said Glenn Kelman, CEO of brokerage Redfin, which released a new demand index on Thursday. “We know that the number of people writing offers has been declining for 4½ weeks, and based on that data we make a forecast.”

The new demand index tracks millions of visits to Redfin’s listing pages, as well as customer requests for home tours, customer offer requests on homes and various pricing data; in June it showed demand up 13 percent from a year ago but down 7 percent from May. That was the largest monthly decline since December of 2014.

source: Econointersect.com

Rail Week Ending 18 July 2015: Rail Data Continues to be Soft
Econintersect: Week 28 of 2015 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) contracted according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic expanded year-over-year, which accounts for approximately half of movements – but weekly railcar counts continued in contraction.

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Chicago Fed, KC Fed, Japan Exports

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Note the details and the conclusion:

source: Econoday

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Highlights

June proved to be a slightly stronger month for the economy than expected, based on the national activity index which came in at plus 0.08 vs Econoday expectations for a 0.05 dip. The 3-month average is still in the negative column though just barely at minus 0.01.

Production indicators showed the most improvement in June, at minus 0.01 vs minus 0.08 in May. The gain here reflects strength in the utilities and mining components of the industrial production report where, however, manufacturing remained flat. Employment also improved, to plus 0.12 from May’s plus 0.06, here reflecting the 2 tenth downtick in the unemployment rate to 5.3 percent. This dip, however, was tied to a decrease in those looking for work which is not a sign of job strength. Personal consumption & housing, at minus 0.07, was little changed as was the sales/orders/inventories component at plus 0.03.

This report is a bit of a head fake, not reflecting the weakness in manufacturing and the special factor behind the decline in the unemployment rate. In sum, growth in the economy is no better than the historical average which is a disappointment, showing little bounce from the weak first quarter.

Unambiguously negative, again:


source: Econoday
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Highlights

Deep continuing contraction is the score for the Kansas City manufacturing report where the headline index is little changed at minus 7. Order readings point to more trouble ahead with new orders at minus 6 and backlog orders at minus 14. Weakness in export orders, at minus 10, is a central negative for the report, as is hiring, at minus 19 and the workweek at minus 18. Price readings are steady and mute. This region’s manufacturing sector, hurt by both exports and the energy sector, is badly depressed as is the Dallas manufacturing sector. Regional July reports from Dallas and Richmond will be posted early next week to round out the view for what looks to be another weak month for manufacturing.

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More signs the US trade deficit will be larger for Q2.
From Japan:

Exports to Asia were up 10.1 percent on the year while those to China were 5.9 percent higher. Exports to the European Union added 10.8 percent. It was the seventh consecutive increase. Exports to the U.S. climbed for the tenth straight month, this time by 17.6 percent.

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