Category Archives: China

Saudi oil pricing, import and export prices, Japan Manufactures’ sentiment

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Not a lot of change for January, most ‘discounts’ still at or near the wides, so price action likely to be more of same:
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Something the Fed takes into consideration:

Import and Export Prices
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Highlights
Cross-border price pressures remain negative with import prices down 0.4 percent in November and export prices down 0.6 percent. Petroleum fell 2.5 percent in the month but is not an isolated factor pulling prices down as non-petroleum import prices fell 0.3 percent in the month. Agricultural exports are the wildcard on the export side and they fell a sizable 1.1 percent but here too, the deflationary pull is widespread with non-agricultural export prices down 0.6 percent.

Year-on-year contraction is perhaps less severe than prior months but not by much. Import prices are down a year-on-year 9.4 percent with non-petroleum import prices at minus 3.4 percent. Import prices from Canada are down the heaviest, at minus 18.0 percent on the year, with Latin America next at minus 12.7 percent. Showing the least price weakness are imports from China at minus 1.5 percent. Export prices are down 6.3 percent on the year with non-agricultural prices down 5.7 percent.

Of special concern are continuing incremental decreases for prices of finished goods, both imports and exports. Federal Reserve policy makers have been waiting for an easing drag from low import prices, not to mention oil prices as well, with neither yet to appear. Contraction in import prices not only reflects low commodity prices but also the strength of the dollar which has been giving U.S. buyers more for their dollars.

Japan big manufacturers’ mood worsens in Q4

Dec 10 (Reuters) — Big Japanese manufacturers’ sentiment worsened in October-December, a government survey showed. The business survey index (BSI) of sentiment at large manufacturers stood at plus 3.8 in October-December, compared with plus 11.0 in July-September, according to the joint survey by the Ministry of Finance and the Economic and Social Research Institute, an arm of the Cabinet Office, released on Thursday. The BSI measures the percentage of firms that expect the business environment to improve from the previous quarter minus the percentage that expect it to worsen.

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Payrolls, Trade

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The growth rate continues to decelerate (see chart):

NFP

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Highlights
Payroll growth is solid and, though wages aren’t building steam, today’s employment report fully cements expectations for December liftoff. Nonfarm payrolls rose a very solid 211,000 in November which is safely above expectations for 190,000. And there’s 35,000 in upward revisions to the two prior months with October now standing at a very impressive 298,000. The unemployment rate is steady and low at 5.0 percent with the participation rate less depressed, up 1 tenth to 62.5 percent.

But earnings data are not impressive, up a monthly 0.2 percent vs October’s outsized 0.4 percent gain. And the year-on-year rate for average hourly earnings is down 2 tenths to 2.3 percent.

Payroll data show a 46,000 jump in construction where activity right now is very strong. This follows construction gains of 34,000 and 19,000 in the two prior months. Trade & transportation, reflecting activity in the supply chain, is also very strong with November and October gains of 49,000 and 46,000. Payrolls are also on the rise in retail trade, up 31,000 and 41,000 the last two months to indicate that retailers are gearing up aggressively for this holiday season. One negative, however, is a 12,000 dip in temporary help services which nearly cuts in half the prior month’s 28,000 gain. Demand for temporary services is considered a leading indicator for permanent hiring.

And weekly hours slipped in the month, down 1 tenth to 34.5 hours. Data on manufacturing are flat and point to little change for November production. And one negative in the report is a 1 tenth uptick to 9.9 percent for the broadly defined U-6 unemployment rate which had, however, dropped sharply in the prior months.

Despite soft spots and though earnings are flat, this report confirms that the nation’s labor market is solid and growing and, for the Fed, it supports arguments for the beginning of policy normalization.
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U6 still well above pre recession levels:
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Export weakness- much of it, as previously discussed, is oil related as oil exporting states cut back on spending and foreign oil capex declines as well- is beginning to dominate. Also, as previously discussed, falling US oil production and rising gasoline consumption are beginning to increasingly offset the drop in price for oil related imports.

In other words, all considered, the drop in oil prices is causing the negative trade gap to widen rather than narrow as most expected.

This makes the oil price collapse fundamentally a negative for the $US rather than a positive.

International Trade
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Highlights
The nation’s trade deficit came in at the high end of expectations in October, at $43.9 billion with details reflecting oil-price effects but also soft foreign demand. Exports fell 1.4 percent in the month while imports, pulled down by oil, fell 0.6 percent. The decline for goods exports, at 2.5 percent, is in line with last week’s advance data but not for imports where goods declined 0.6 percent, vs the advance reading of minus 2.1 percent. Exports of services are once again solid at plus 0.7 percent.

Low prices for oil held down imports of both crude and industrial supplies. Imported crude averaged $40.12 per barrel in the month vs $42.72 in September and, in a reminder of the commodity price collapse, vs $88.47 a year ago. Turning to finished goods, however, imports do show gains with capital goods up as well as autos and consumer goods. Country data show a narrowing with China to $33.0 billion, which ends five straight months of widening, and a widening with the EU to $13.4 billion.

This report is mixed, confirming weakness abroad but showing some life at home. But, with exports down, the data do point to a slow start for fourth quarter GDP.

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Housing starts, High end weakness

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Falling off, as previously discussed, particularly multi family, which had been the driver:

Housing Starts
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Highlights
Pulled down by a big drop in multi-family homes, housing starts fell a steep 11.0 percent in October to a 1.060 million annualized rate that is far below Econoday’s low estimate. Starts for multi-family homes, which spiked in September following a springtime jump in permits for this component, fell back 25 percent in the month to a 338,000 annualized rate. Single-family starts fell a much less severe 2.4 percent to 722,000.

And there is important good news in this report. Permits are up, rising 4.1 percent to a 1.150 million rate that hits the Econoday consensus. Single-family permits are up 2.4 percent to a 711,000 rate with multi-family up 6.8 percent to 439,000.

Housing completions fell back in October, down 6 percent to a 965,000 rate that reflects lower work in the Northeast and Midwest. Homes under construction rose 0.9 percent to a recovery best 938,000 rate and are up a very strong 16.4 percent year-on-year, pointing, despite the slip in starts, to ongoing strength for construction spending, at least for October.

But the big drop in starts is definitely a negative for the near-term construction outlook, though the rise in permits points to subsequent strength.

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Sotheby’s Offers Employees Voluntary Buyouts to Cut Costs

Nov 13 (Bloomberg) — Sotheby’s is offering employees voluntary buyouts to cut costs after a drop in third-quarter revenue grabbed more attention from the company’s investors than its largest ever semiannual auction season.

San Francisco in housing ‘correction’

Nov 5 (CNBC) — San Francisco homes are still some of the priciest in the nation, but sales of those houses are showing significant weakness. September sales were down 19.5 percent in the city from a year ago, according to the California Association of Realtors.

“We’re going through a kind of correction, as we have a lot of new developments being built right now. The supply is definitely on the rise,” said Justin Fichelson, an agent at Climb Real Estate Group in San Francisco. “The market is not going to continue going up like we’ve seen in the past two years, because prices are already high.”

London Mansion Prices Fall 11.5% as Home `Bubble’ May Have Burst

Nov 12 (Bloomberg) — Prices of homes valued at 5 million pounds ($7.6 million) or more fell 11.5 percent on a per square foot basis in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to Richard Barber, a director at broker W.A. Ellis LLP, a unit of Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. Sales volumes across all homes in the best parts of central London dropped 14 percent in the period, the realtor said on Thursday.

“The bubble may already have burst” for the most expensive homes, Barber said. Now, “36 percent of all properties currently on the market across prime central London are being marketed at a lower price than they were originally listed at, with the average reduction in price being 8.5 percent.”

Luxury-Jet Market Value Seen Slipping for First Time Since 2009

Nov 15 (Bloomberg) — Global long-term spending on private jets is starting to slow for the first time since 2009 as slumping commodity prices sap demand in emerging markets, according to an industry forecast.

Deliveries for the 11 years ending in 2025 will be valued at $270 billion, Honeywell International Inc. said Sunday in its annual survey of the luxury-aircraft market. That’s down 3.6 percent from last year’s comparable projection, and snapped a streak of gains since the last U.S. recession ended.

The decline reflects weakness in Brazil, Russia, India and China, the group known as the BRIC countries, and the impact of political conflicts in the Middle East and Africa, according to Brian Sill, chief of Honeywell’s business and general aviation unit. Delays in some new plane models are also pushing back demand, he said.

Jet shipments will drop 2.6 percent to 9,200 planes, according to Honeywell, whose forecast had predicted fluctuations in deliveries but no drop in the planes’ list value in the post-recession years. Large planes that had spearheaded the recovery are now seeing slower growth.

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Empire State Manufacturing, China Power Usage, Stock Buy Backs

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The recession continues:

Empire State Mfg Survey
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Highlights
Negatives are beginning to run in Empire State with the index at minus 10.74 in November, right in line with the prior four readings and well below the Econoday consensus for minus 5.00. Several components are showing extended weakness including unfilled orders, at minus 18.18 for the lowest reading of the year, and also the workweek, at minus 14.55 for a fifth straight decline and the weakest run since mid 2013. With unfilled orders down and the workweek down, it’s no surprise that employment is down, at minus 7.27 for a third straight loss and the weakest streak since late 2009. And prices, even outside of energy and commodities, are not helped by weak demand with prices for final goods at minus 4.55 for a third straight decline and the longest run of contraction since early 2013.

Good news is hard to find but there is easing weakness in new orders, at minus 11.82 vs October’s minus 18.91, and in shipments as well, at minus 4.10 vs minus 13.61. Still, this is the sixth straight decline for new orders and the fourth straight for shipments. Manufacturers are keeping their inventories down while delivery times, reflecting the weakness in shipments, are speeding up.

This report is the first indication on November’s factory sector and it points to another run of weak regional reports, starting Thursday with the Philly Fed. The factory sector, hit by weak exports and in contraction for a full year, is becoming perhaps the economy’s Achilles heal — and also perhaps a dovish wildcard for the December FOMC.

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Power usage has been a reasonable growth indicator:

China’s power use drops slightly in Oct.

Nov 16 (Xinhua) — China’s electricity consumption edged down 0.2 percent to 449.1 billion kilowatt hours (kwh) in October. In the first ten months, power use rose 0.7 percent from a year earlier to 4.58 trillion kwh. China’s value-added industrial output of the electricity, heating, gas and water sectors lost 0.3 percent in October, while September saw 0.7-percent growth. Electricity use in the service sector rose 7.1 percent in the first ten months, the agricultural sector posted a 3.0 percent increase, while use by the industrial sector dropped 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the NEA said.

So seems the new corporate debt is largely going towards stock buy backs, substituting debt for equity on the balance sheets, leaving corps more leveraged than otherwise:
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Mtg Purchase Apps, Saudi Pricing History, China

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So much for housing leading the way up- looks to have gone from flat to down:

MBA Mortgage Applications
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For the most part Saudis have been lowering premiums and increasing discounts which causes prices to fall to get their sales up to their pumping capacity:
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Not without a bit of pain, which they may have come to believe inevitable due to long term supply/demand dynamics:

Saudi Arabia risks destroying Opec and feeding the Isil monster

(Telegraph) &#8212 The rumblings of revolt against Saudi Arabia and the Opec Gulf states are growing louder. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the oil price crash has cut Opec revenues from $1 trillion a year to $550bn. US output has dropped by 500,000 b/d since April, but the fall in October slowed to 40,000 b/d. Total production of 9.1m b/d is roughly where it was a year ago when the price war began. A confidential order from King Salman has frozen new hiring by the state, stopped property contracts and purchases of cars, and halted a long list of projects.

We’ll see what this means in actual practice:

Li promises full use of fiscal weapons

(Xinhua) — To lead to a major lift in the nation’s productivity, the government will ensure a steady business environment for all major sectors of the market, the president said. The government will make full use of fiscal policies, reduce taxes properly and help companies to overcome their difficulties and upgrade structure, Li told the meeting. The government will invest more to improve infrastructure in central and western China to achieve balanced development, and private companies are welcome to invest in such projects, Li said.

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Employment chart, China trade, SNB

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The red line tends to drag down the blue line, often when deficit spending gets too low:
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Exports drop again, imports drop more, so the trade surplus grows, and the US should see more imports and fewer exports, while euro zone imports are down which adds to their trade surplus:

China’s Trade Drop Means More Stimulus Measures Are Coming

Exports drop for a fourth month, import declines match record

Trade surplus to help ease currency depreciation pressure

China’s exports fell for a fourth straight month and imports matched a record stretch of declines, signaling that the mounting drag from slower global growth will push policy makers toward expanding stimulus.

Overseas shipments dropped 6.9 percent in October in dollar terms, the customs administration said Sunday, a bigger decline than estimated by all 31 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Weaker demand for coal, iron and other commodities for China’s declining heavy industries helped drag imports down 18.8 percent in dollar terms, leaving a record trade surplus of $61.6 billion.
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Fiscal stimulus this year includes more infrastructure spending and expanding the lending capacity for the China Development Bank and other policy banks. The PBOC has also made repeated reductions to the amount of reserves required of lenders.

Exports to Japan slumped 9 percent in the first 10 months from a year earlier, while those to the European Union declined 3.7 percent. Shipments to Hong Kong dropped 11.7 percent during the same period.

Slowing Growth

Exports to the U.S., China’s largest trading partner, jumped 5.8 percent in the first 10 months from a year earlier, while those to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations increased 4.2 percent. Shipments to India rose 8.9 percent.

Imports from all 10 of the major trade partners listed by the customs administration declined in the first 10 months. Imports from Australia, a major source of China’s iron ore during the real estate boom, plunged 25.7 percent.

The record trade surplus helped spur a surprise increase in foreign-exchange reserves in October despite an erosion of holdings after the PBOC intervened to boost the yuan. The central bank’s stockpile rose to $3.53 trillion last month from $3.51 trillion at the end of September, the PBOC said Saturday.

“The large trade surplus could offset capital outflow” and curb expectations for the yuan’s depreciation, Liu Ligang, chief Greater China economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Hong Kong, wrote in a note.

Looks like the Swiss National Bank, with about 550 billion in reserves in its portfolio obtained selling it’s currency for euro to hold the peg, may have been selling some of those euro to buy $ to buy US stocks:

SNB’s Stake in Apple, Microsoft, Exxon Rose in Third Quarter

By Catherine Bosley

Nov 4 (Bloomberg) — The Swiss National Bank owned more shares of Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Exxon Mobil Corp. in the third

quarter, taking its U.S. equity portfolio to $38.95 billion.

Switzerland’s central bank held 10.3 million shares in the iPhone maker on Sept. 30, according to a regulatory filing made to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and published on Wednesday. That compares with 9.4 million shares at the end of June, an increase of nearly 10 percent.

The SNB’s stake in Exxon rose by a similar extent, while in Microsoft it registered an increase of just over 9 percent.

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Job Cuts, Yellen Comment, Saudi Pricing, German Factory Orders, Maersk Job Cuts, China Trade Show

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Down a bit but still trending higher since the oil price collapse:
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Seems she still doesn’t realize negative rates are just another tax:

FED’S YELLEN: IF ECONOMY SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATED, NEGATIVE RATES AND OTHER TOOLS WOULD BE ON THE TABLE

This implies the rest of Saudi pricing remains the same from November, when discounts to benchmarks were substantially increased.

In general, discounts have been increased over the last few months:

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, raised pricing for December sales of all its crude grades to Asia as profit for refiners improved in the country’s largest market. OPEC’s biggest producer cut its monthly pricing for all blends for buyers in the U.S.

State-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co. increased its official selling price for Arab Light grade crude by 30 cents to a discount of $1.30 below the regional benchmark, the company said in an e-mailed statement. That beat expectations for a 25-cent increase, according to the median estimate of of six refiners and traders surveyed by Bloomberg this week.

The chart shows that discounts were set at the wides back in Feb, then relaxed some, and are now generally back towards the wides, indicating the desire to keep prices down:
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German Factory Orders Unexpectedly Decline for Third Month

Nov 5 (Bloomberg) — German factory orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, fell 1.7 percent in September from August, when they dropped 1.8 percent. Orders declined 1 percent from a year earlier. Factory orders dropped 2.8 percent in the third quarter from the previous one. Demand from within the country increased 0.3 percent and was up 0.9 percent for the euro area. Non-euro-area orders fell 8.6 percent in the July-to-September period. In September, orders for investment goods from the euro area fell 12.8 percent, reflecting a drop in demand for big-ticket items. Excluding bulk orders, demand fell 0.4 percent.

Maersk Line to Cut 4,000 Jobs as Market Deteriorates

Nov 4 (WSJ) — Danish conglomerate A.P. Møller-Maersk A/S saidWednesday its Maersk Line container-shipping unit would cut 4,000 jobs from its land-based staff of 23,000. It is also canceling options to buy six Triple-E vessels. Maersk said it would also push back plans to purchase eight slightly smaller vessels. The conglomerate said it would cut its annual administration costs by $250 million over the next two years and would cancel 35 scheduled voyages in the fourth quarter. That is on top of four regularly scheduled sailings it canceled earlier in the year.

Sliding Canton Fair orders signal poor outlook for producers

Nov 5 (Nikkei) — Foreign orders at China’s leading trade show slipped 7.4%. Chinese producers and overseas buyers at this year’s autumn session of the China Import and Export Fair, better known as the Canton Fair, signed contracts for $27 billion in goods, down from $29.1 billion last fall. Traffic from Europe shrank more than 10% from last fall amid the continent’s hazy economic outlook. The total value of contracts inked at the fair declined from the year-earlier figure for the eighth straight session, drawing alarmingly close to the $26.2 billion total from spring 2009.

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Atlanta Fed, German Engineering Orders, Misc News, Redbook retail sales, North Dakota, Factory orders

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Down to 1.9 for Q4, after being very close for Q1, Q2 and Q3:
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German Engineering Orders Hit by Lower Demand From China

By Nina Adam

Nov 2 (WSJ) — Germany’s VDMA engineering federation said Monday that its “plant and machinery makers are battling against global markets’ adversities.” German mechanical engineering orders slumped 13% year-over-year in September, hit by a 18% drop in foreign demand. Foreign orders from outside the eurozone were down 7% in the nine months through September from the same period a year earlier. “Companies are feeling the pinch from turbulences in China, which are also affecting other key developing markets,” said Olaf Wortmann, an economist at VDMA, which represents more than 3,000 midsize companies.

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Still depressed but a hopeful forecast, though not long ago 2.8% year over year growth would have been considered low:

Redbook
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Redbook’s same-store sales tally has been climbing, up 4 tenths in the October 31 to a year-on-year plus 1.9 percent. But the report’s commentary is mixed, saying some retailers benefited from Halloween shopping though it said the fact that Halloween fell on Saturday actually kept shoppers out of stores on Halloween itself. The report’s month-to-month reading shows no meaningful change against September. But the report’s outlook for the key shopping month of November is very strong, forecasting 2.8 percent year-on-year same-store sales growth for the month.

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Bad, worse then expected, and prior month revised lower as well:

Factory Orders
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Highlights
New orders for the export-hit factory sector fell 1.0 percent in September for the 11th decline in 14 months. Orders for durable goods, initially posted in last week’s advance report, are unrevised at minus 1.2 percent, held down in part by a downswing in civilian aircraft but nevertheless showing wide weakness. Orders for non-durable goods, pulled down by weakness for petroleum and coal products, fell 0.8 percent to extend a run of sizable declines going back to July. The factory sector has been struggling with weakness in the energy sector and especially weak foreign demand that for U.S. goods has been made weaker by the strength in the dollar.

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Draghi Comments, Global Comments

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ECB will do what is needed to keep inflation target on track: Draghi

By Stephen Jewkes

Oct 31 (Reuters) — “If we are convinced that our medium-term inflation target is at risk, we will take the necessary actions,” ECB president Draghi told Il Sole 24 Ore. “We will see whether a further stimulus is necessary. This is an open question,” he said, adding it would take longer than was foreseen in March to return to price stability. Draghi said inflation in the euro zone was expected to remain close to zero, if not negative, at least until the beginning of next year. “From mid-2016 to the end of 2017, also due to the delayed effect of the depreciation in the exchange rate, we expect inflation to increase gradually,” he said.

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Operating conditions deteriorate at a slower pace in October

Nov 2 (Markit) — The China PMI posted 48.3 in October, up from 47.2 in September. Total new business placed at Chinese goods producers declined for the fourth month in a row in October. That said, the rate contraction eased since September’s recent record and was only modest. Softer domestic demand appeared to be a key factor weighing on overall new work as new export business increased for the first time since June, albeit marginally. Nonetheless, a further decline in overall new orders led firms to cut their production schedules again in October.

Weakest deterioration in business conditions since May

Nov 2 (Markit) — The headline Taiwan Manufacturing PMI rose from 46.9 in September to 47.8 in October. Production at manufacturing companies in Taiwan continued to decline in October, as has been the case in each month since April. However, the rate of contraction eased further from August’s 35- month record to the slowest since May. Companies that cut output generally attributed this to poor economic conditions and fewer new orders. The latter was highlighted by a further fall in total new work in October. As was the case with output, however, the rate of reduction was the weakest seen in five months.

Manufacturing conditions deteriorate at weak pace

Nov 2 (Markit) — The South Korean manufacturing PMI posted at 49.1, down slightly from 49.2 in September. Production at South Korean manufacturers declined for the eighth successive month in October. According to anecdotal evidence, global economic uncertainty and poor demand conditions contributed to the latest fall in output. Supporting the fall in output was a decline in total new orders during the month. A number of panellists mentioned unstable economic conditions and a decline in sales from both domestic and international clients as factors behind the latest contraction.

S.Korea Oct exports post worst drop in over 6 yrs as global demand sags

Oct 31 (Reuters) — The trade ministry attributed the declines mainly to a sharp fall in ship contracts and low oil prices. Exports fell 15.8 percent on-year to $43.5 billion in October, their 10th straight month of declines and the sharpest fall since August 2009. Imports slumped 16.6 percent to $36.8 billion. The trade surplus fell to $6.7 billion in October from a revised $8.9 billion in September. The slump in exports was partially expected by economists as South Korea posted a record high in shipments last year.

Growth of manufacturing production wanes further

Nov 2 (Markit) — Posting a 22-month low of 50.7 in October (September: 51.2), the seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Manufacturing PMI waned. Output growth eased in October on the back of a slower increase in new orders. Rates of expansion in both production and order books were the weakest in their current 24-month sequences of growth, with panellists reporting challenging economic conditions and a reluctance among clients to commit to new projects. New business from abroad placed with Indian manufacturers rose for the twenty-fifth straight month in October.

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Brent Spot Chart, China, Atlanta Fed

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Looks a lot more negative since the October 5 Saudi price cuts than the futures markets. These price are more indicative of prices of physical oil vs financial portfolio activities:
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Note the lack of results of ‘monetary policy’:

China’s October factory, services surveys show economy still wobbly

Nov 1 (Reuters) — Activity in China’s manufacturing sector unexpectedly contracted in October for a third straight month, an official survey showed on Sunday, fuelling fears the economy may still be losing momentum in the fourth quarter despite a raft of stimulus measures.

Adding to those concerns, China’s services sector, which has been one of the few bright spots in the economy, also showed signs of cooling last month, expanding at its slowest pace in nearly seven years.

“As deflation risks intensify, a further RRR cut before end of this year is still possible,” ANZ said, referring to reducing the amount of reserves that banks must hold in order to free up more funds for new loans.

The official Purchasing Managers’ Index(PMI) was at 49.8 in October, the same pace as in previous month and lagging market expectations of 50.0, according to the National Bureau of Statistics(NBS). A reading below 50 points suggests an contraction.

New export orders contracted for a 13th straight month, though the sub-index for new orders – a proxy for both domestic and foreign demand – edged up marginally to 50.3, compared with September’s 50.2.

Faced with persistently weak demand, factory owners continued to lay off workers and at a slightly faster pace than in September.

As for the services sector, whose growth has helped offset persistent weakness in manufacturing, the official non-manufacturing PMI fell to 53.1 in October from September’s 53.4. Though still a solid pace of expansion, it was the lowest reading since late 2008 during the global financial crisis, a similar survey showed.

SMALL FIRMS FACING BIGGER STRESSES

Activity in small and mid-sized firms continued to contract in October, with more small firms seeing fund shortages compared to big ones, the official survey showed. Small companies account for up to 80 percent of urban employment and 60 percent of China’s GDP.

The government has cut interest rates six times since November and lowered the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves four times this year. The latest cut in interest rates and banks’ reserve requirement came on Oct 23.

Beijing has also quickened spending on infrastructure and eased curbs on the ailing property sector. The latter have helped revive weak home sales and prices but have not yet reversed a sharp decline in property investment.

Many economists had expected economic growth would bottom out in the third quarter, with a modest improvement late this year and into early 2016 as additional stimulus measures gradually take effect.

Starting out at 2.5% this quarter. We’ll see how it evolves as numbers are released:
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