Interest Rates Archive

Retail sales, Industrial production, Interest payments, Japan profits, Euro area fiscal balance

Weak and weaker than expected: Highlights The second quarter gets off to a stumbling start pulled down by a 0.2 percent headline decline in an April retail sales report where the core details show unexpected weakness. Excluding autos, in which sales were already expected to fall sharply, April sales managed only a ...Read More

Consumer credit, Mania comment, Fed on rates and inflation

It’s been decelerating all year with a year end move up that’s likely to be reversed as personal income growth continues to be very low: Highlights Consumer borrowing increased in December, up $18.4 billion vs an upwardly revised $31.0 billion in November which is the largest monthly increase since a break in ...Read More

Factory orders, ISM non mfg, ECB news

Yes, they were up, but there is a ‘seasonal’ aspect to it, including an air show, so the year over year chart is a bit more indicative of what’s going on and it’s still in negative territory. Also, vehicle orders declined, and inventories remained at levels that beg continuing production cuts. Factory ...Read More

Redbook retail sales, Inflation adjustment, China, House prices, Consumer confidence

Still depressed Lower than the Fed thought: U.S. inflation probably lower than reported, Fed study says Aug 24 (Reuters) — U.S. inflation in the first half of the year was probably “markedly lower” than reported according to the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank. Researchers at the regional Fed bank had earlier found ...Read More

quick macro update

It all started when the FICA tax cuts and a few of the Bush tax reductions were allowed to expire at the end of 2012, followed by the sequesters a few months later 2013. That resulted in 2013 GDP growth of a bit less than 2% or so that might have been ...Read More

Producer Prices, Industrial Production, Rail Traffic, Container Exports

This is not a reason to hike rates, but the Fed has other reasons beginning with their mistaken belief that the current policy is ‘highly accommodative’ and potentially inflationary, etc. etc. etc. when the opposite is the actual case: Up a bit more than expected, but all due to auto production, and ...Read More

macro update

Saudis remain price setter: Main theme: deflationary biases Greece is a deflationary event, as EU aggregate demand is further restricted, with no sign of any possibility of fiscal relaxation. Oil fell as Saudis increased discounts, further reducing global capex and related asset prices. US oil production that gets sold counts as GDP, ...Read More

Comments on Greece

So the euro is down a % or 2 because of the Greek debt drama. Generally currencies go down on debt drama when the debt is in a foreign currency and it’s feared the govt will have to sell local currency to get the fx to make the payments. For example, the ...Read More

China, Bunds, and Fed’s labor market index

As if rate cuts will help: China cuts interest rates for third time since Nov as economy sputters May 10 (Reuters) — China’s central bank cut its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to 5.1 percent on Sunday, its third reduction since November, as economic growth cools to levels not seen ...Read More

Euro update and anecdotal econ news

This gives you a pretty good idea of the magnitude of euro selling by central banks. The question is when are they finished, and perhaps, when foreign exporters again pressure their cb’s to increase holdings to target the euro zone for exports, which is the reason the cb’s originally bought the euro. ...Read More