Interest Rates Archive

macro update

Saudis remain price setter: Main theme: deflationary biases Greece is a deflationary event, as EU aggregate demand is further restricted, with no sign of any possibility of fiscal relaxation. Oil fell as Saudis increased discounts, further reducing global capex and related asset prices. US oil production that gets sold counts as GDP, ...Read More

Comments on Greece

So the euro is down a % or 2 because of the Greek debt drama. Generally currencies go down on debt drama when the debt is in a foreign currency and it’s feared the govt will have to sell local currency to get the fx to make the payments. For example, the ...Read More

China, Bunds, and Fed’s labor market index

As if rate cuts will help: China cuts interest rates for third time since Nov as economy sputters May 10 (Reuters) — China’s central bank cut its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to 5.1 percent on Sunday, its third reduction since November, as economic growth cools to levels not seen ...Read More

Euro update and anecdotal econ news

This gives you a pretty good idea of the magnitude of euro selling by central banks. The question is when are they finished, and perhaps, when foreign exporters again pressure their cb’s to increase holdings to target the euro zone for exports, which is the reason the cb’s originally bought the euro. ...Read More

US macro update, FX update

US macro update: So looks to me like it’s all gone bad since the oil price crash, exactly as feared, and the Atlanta Fed most recently lowered it’s Q1 GDP estimate to 0. First, a quick review of the accounting. GDP = spending = sales = income. An increase in spending = ...Read More

new from Bernanke

In case there was any doubt… >    >   (email exchange) >    >   On Mon, Mar 30, 2015 at 11:28 AM, Scott wrote: >    New from Bernanke: Why are interest rates so low? Bad: what matters most for the economy is the real, or inflation-adjusted, interest rate (the market, or nominal, interest rate minus the ...Read More

Turkey’s President has it right!

Maybe they’ll invite me there for Thanksgiving- see where it all started! ;) Erdogan: You Can’t Decide Interest Rates According to Inflation By Ali Berat Meric Feb 4 (Bloomberg) — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says making interest-rate cuts dependent on slowing inflation is the result of a “wrong mentality.” Erdogan, speaking ...Read More

A Modest Response

A Modest Proposal for Resolving the Eurozone Crisis By Y. Varoufakis, S. Holland AND J.K. Galbraith 1. Prologue Europe is fragmenting. While in the past year the European Central Bank has managed to stabilise the bond markets, the economies of the European core and its periphery are drifting apart. As this happens, ...Read More

durable goods, Case Shiller, new home sales, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed, PMI services flash, GDP comments, 10 yr vs Fed

Down hard and revisions down hard as well, and year over year growth up less than 1%: Durable Goods Orders Highlights Durables orders unexpectedly fell 3.4 percent in December after dropping 2.1 percent in November. Analysts projected a 0.7 percent rise. Excluding transportation, the core slipped 0.8 in December following a decline ...Read More

Japan rate update, Empire manufacturing

‘The market’ sure doesn’t seem to think rates in Japan are going up after decades of 0 rates: This survey just turned radically: New York state manufacturing index lowest in two years: NY Fed Dec 15 (Reuters) — Manufacturing activity in New York state contracted for the first time in nearly two ...Read More