Tag Archives: Retail Sales

Headline retail sales with 3 mo moving average indicated, claims

Posted on by

Looks like the general drift to lower growth rates may still be in progress.

Headline retail sales year-over-year with 3 mo moving average:


Full size image

Longer term chart:


Full size image

And auto sales chart shows how they sagged during the October govt. shutdown with lost sales subsequently recovered, but on balance relatively flat for 2013:


Full size image

Lots of noise in claims data this time of year, but, again, claims are about separations, not new hires, though correlation has been pretty good:


Full size image

Share

FED Dudley comments

Posted on by

*DJ Fed’s Dudley: Drop In Market Rates A Plus For Economy

He forgets about the interest income channels

*DJ Dudley: US Economic Growth Slower Than Expected

Yes, but still higher than the first half, as recently revised

*DJ Dudley: Has Revised Down Expectations Of Growth

Yes, but still higher than the first half when corporate earnings were relatively strong

*DJ Dudley: NY Region Growing Faster Than Nation
*DJ Dudley: NY Region Has Grown At ‘Slow Pace’

Yes, and better than the first half, helped by auto production resuming after earthquake delays

Retail sales were ‘normal’

The 9% federal budget deficit continues to provide reasonably support for modest GDP growth

The Fed’s ‘forecast’ for unchanged rates for two years is just that. It’s their expectation for rates based
on their outlook.

And while the Fed’s outlook will change as conditions change, markets are not taking it that way.

Share

U.K. Retail Sales Advance at Fastest Pace in 10 Months, BRC Says

Posted on by

The deficit is still plenty large enough for a decent expansion, so the year end weather setbacks could be reversed and then some before sufficient austerity sets in and works to reverse it all.

Hard to figure the timing for the cross currents.

Also, opening the borders to wealthy foreigners, as they recently announced they were doing, is a clever move to firm the currency and support the economy and asset prices.

UK Headlines

U.K. Retail Sales Advance at Fastest Pace in 10 Months, BRC Says
U.K. Housing-Price Gauge Increased in January on Supply Shortage
Osborne Says U.K. Bank Levy Increase to Raise 800 Million Pounds

Share

U.S. Data

Posted on by


Karim writes:

Brief and delayed recap:

Looks like Goldilocks is officially here. 4% GDP gwth and 0% core inflation.

Agreed, remains a good market for stocks apart from looming shocks from Europe and elsewhere that could do a lot of damage.
Tax hikes can do damage but they are off in the future for now.

I describe 4% gdp as more L shaped than V shaped, but that’s just semantics. It’s modest growth that will very gradually bring down unemployment.

In the end, growth will be important to the Fed as it leads inflation. Look for Bernanke to continue to tweak extended period language today.

  • Retail sales up 1.6% with upward revisions to Jan and Feb
  • Control group up 0.5% and 3mth annualized rate for control group jumped to 7.4% from 5.2%
  • Looks like 4% GDP growth in Q1
  • Core CPI up 0.05%; helped largely by another 0.1% drop in OER
  • 3mth annualized rate of core inflation now -0.1%

Share

Retail Sales/Claims/Import Prices/Walmart

Posted on by


[Skip to the end]


Karim writes:
Data supportive of the ‘low for long’ camp:

Retail Sales

  • One of biggest misses in awhile; -0.1% vs expex of +0.8%
  • Ex-autos -0.6%
  • Control group -0.2%
  • Look for early markdowns of Q3 GDP estimates

Claims

  • Initial claims up 4k to 558k
  • Continuing down 141k (prior week revised up 33k); net of extended and emergency claims -11k

Import Prices

  • -0.7% m/m and -19.3% y/y (record drop)
  • Ex-petroleum -0.2% m/m and -7.3% y/y

Walmart- Beats earnings estimates but misses on revenue

  • “We are acclerating our focus on reducing our expenses”-CEO
  • WAL-MART CEO SAYS THERE IS A `NEW NORMAL’ IN CONSUMPTION
  • WAL-MART CEO SAYS PEOPLE ARE SAVING MORE, CONSUMING LESS
  • WAL-MART U.S. COMP SALES IN 2Q BELOW PLAN
  • WALMART REDUCED U.S. INVENTORIES FASTER THAN SALES DECLINE


[top]

Share

Retail/PPI

Posted on by


[Skip to the end]

Karim writes:

Retail sales weaker than expected (especially in light of fact that May/June were peak months for consumer provisions in stimulus package)

  • 0.6% headline; 0.3% ex-autos; -0.2% ex-autos and gasoline

PPI

  • Headline up 1.8%; 0.5% core; driven by 3.4% gain in light truck prices; ex-vehicles, core unch
  • Intermediate stage (1.9%/0.4%) and crude (4.6%/2.6%) largely driven by energy prices that have since reversed


[top]

Share

2008-10-15 USER

Posted on by


[Skip to the end]

MBA Mortgage Applications (Oct 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.1%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

MBA Purchasing Applications (Oct 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 313.50
Prior 314.50
Revised n/a

 
Down a tad, but the lower band of the range holding.

[top][end]

MBA Refinancing Applications (Oct 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 1514.20
Prior 1345.80
Revised n/a

 
Refi machine seems to be functioning.

[top][end]

MBA TABLE 1 (Oct 10)

[top][end]

MBA TABLE 2 (Oct 10)

[top][end]

MBA TABLE 3 (Oct 10)

[top][end]

MBA TABLE 4 (Oct 10)

[top][end]

Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Oct)

Survey -10.0
Actual -24.6
Prior -7.4
Revised n/a

 
Much lower than expected as the world economy slows.

Karim says:

  • Drops from -7.4 to record low of -24.6.

  • Orders drop 25 points, shipments drop 9 points, workweek drops 4 points.

  • Employment modest improvement from -4.6 to -3.7

  • Bulk of labor force adjustment seems to be in hours.

[top][end]

Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 1 (Oct)

[top][end]

Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 2 (Oct)

[top][end]

Producer Price Index MoM (Sep)

Survey -0.4%
Actual -0.4%
Prior -0.9%
Revised n/a

 
As expected.

Karim says:

  • Headline -0.4% and core +0.4%

  • Intermediate stage -1.2% and core -0.3%

  • Crude stage -7.9% and core -9.4%

[top][end]

PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Sep)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

 
Higher than expected.

[top][end]

Producer Price Index YoY (Sep)

Survey 8.6%
Actual 8.7%
Prior 9.6%
Revised n/a

 
Still up big year over year.

[top][end]

PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Sep)

Survey 3.8%
Actual 4.0%
Prior 3.6%
Revised n/a

 
This is breaking out as well.

[top][end]

Advance Retail Sales MoM (Sep)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -1.2%
Prior -0.3%
Revised -0.4%

 
Lowe than expected partly due to lower gasoline prices.

Karim says:

  • -1.2% m/m and -0.6% m/m ex-autos; modest downward revisions to back months.

  • -1.3% ex-gas.

  • All you need to know is only 2 components to rise m/m were health care and gasoline!

  • Furniture and clothing were each down 2.3%; the drop in furniture the most since Feb 2003.

  • And this before the 15% month to date decline in equities in October.

[top][end]

Advance Retail Sales YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.0%
Prior 1.5%
Revised n/a

 
Looking like recession levels.

[top][end]

Retail Sales Less Autos MoM (Sep)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.6%
Prior -0.7%
Revised -0.9%

 
Also, lower than expected.

[top][end]

Advance Retail Sales TABLE 1 (Sep)

[top][end]

Advance Retail Sales TABLE 2 (Sep)

[top][end]

Advance Retail Sales TABLE 3 (Sep)

[top][end]

Business Inventories MoM (Aug)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 1.1%
Revised n/a

 
A little lower than expected.

[top][end]

Business Inventories YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 6.4%
Prior 6.5%
Revised n/a

 
Working their way higher but not out of control.


[top]

Share