US Archive

U.S. and Eur Data/GDP Downgrades

Karim writes: U.S. data on the soft side (October) Most notable is core durable goods orders (capex has been gwth leader of late) falling 1.8% and 3mth annual rate slowing to 4% from 7.3% Core shipments (more important for current quarter growth) down 1.1% Personal spending up 0.1%. Personal income up 0.4% ...Read More

News recap comments

The news flow from last week was so voluminous it was nearly impossible to process. For good measure I want to start today’s commentary with a simple recap of what happened. On the negative side – · Greece called a referendum and threw bailout plans up in the air taking Greek 2yrs ...Read More

Credit spillovers from Eur banks to EM

Makes sense. I always wondered how that loan demand was accommodated. Never looked like the kind of lending US regulators would sanction. Karim writes: Interesting table from JPM. Much larger dependence on credit from Eur banks for LATAM economies than from U.S. banks. Poland/Russia not as surprising but still large! Overall, domestic ...Read More

Payrolls and a Fed rant

Utter failure of policy. The Fed was certain it knew what Japan had done wrong and wasn’t going to make THOSE mistakes. So it Cut rates much more aggressively. Said it would do whatever it takes. Figured out how to do its job as liquidity provider after only 6 months of alphabet ...Read More

Greek Vote Threatens Bailout

The obvious hasn’t been making the headlines: A no vote means a lot more immediate austerity than a yes vote. A no vote means Greece can’t borrow at all, and therefore govt. checks will only clear if Greece immediately cuts back to where it is only spending tax revenue. A yes vote ...Read More

Early Holiday Cheer…

As discussed last week, the latest euro package just announced is unravelling quickly as markets again realize there is no actual substance, and no operational path with regards to carrying any of it out. So things will deteriorate as described until markets again force further ‘action.’ At the same time, the austerity ...Read More

CBO Congressional Report- U.S. Could Face European-Style Debt Crisis

How about the accounts sticking to accounting. Just in case you thought there was any hope: But most ominously, the CBO report warns of a “sudden fiscal crisis” in which investors would lose faith in the U.S. government’s ability to manage its fiscal affairs. In such a fiscal panic, investors might abandon ...Read More

Major Banks Likely to Get Reprieve on New Capital Rules

The real problem is if you understand what a bank is, you wouldn’t be trying to use capital ratios to protect taxpayer money. First, notice that the many of the same people clamoring for higher capital ratios have also supported ‘nationalization’ of banks, which means there is no private capital. So it ...Read More

US assures China on debt quality

[Skip to the end] A world gone mad! When China’s US securities mature, the Fed debits their securities account at the Fed and credits their bank account at the Fed. What’s the fuss???!!! Treasuries Fall as Stocks Rise, China Comments on Debt Safety by Susanna Walker Mar 13 (Bloomberg) — The Obama ...Read More

Gasoline demand

this doesn’t look like the stuff of recession: FUNDAMENTALS TO SUPPORT Barclays Capital said gasoline demand indications from the U.S., the world’s largest consumer, have been robust. “Gasoline is showing the strongest year-on-year growth in demand for January-to-date,” it said in a research note. “In each of the past six years, February ...Read More