News recap comments

The news flow from last week was so voluminous it was nearly impossible to process. For good measure I want to start today’s commentary with a simple recap of what happened. On the negative side – · Greece called a referendum and threw bailout plans up in the air taking Greek 2yrs from 70% to […]

Payrolls and a Fed rant

Utter failure of policy. The Fed was certain it knew what Japan had done wrong and wasn’t going to make THOSE mistakes. So it Cut rates much more aggressively. Said it would do whatever it takes. Figured out how to do its job as liquidity provider after only 6 months of alphabet soup programs. Did […]


Karim writes: Pretty bad payroll number that is likely to be enough to swing the Fed into action-at least Operation Twist, if not QE3 Payrolls unch for August, though Verizon strike impact was 45k Net revisions -58k Unemployment rate unch at 9.1% on account of 331k gain in household survey (prior 2mths total -483k) and […]

Goldman excerpts from employment report

The positives have been well publicized, so I’m just forwarding the negatives, particularly the downward revisions to Q2 I’ve been concerned about: 2. Results from the household survey were disappointing. Total household employment fell by 190k, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.0% (8.96% unrounded) from 8.8% previously. . Results were somewhat better after adjusting […]

US total payroll employees haven’t grown since 1999

>    >   (email exchange) >    >   On Tue, May 4, 2010 at 10:24 AM, Scott wrote: >    >   Ugly chart. >    >   US total payroll employees haven’t grown since 1999 >    Yes, hangover from the surplus years. Deficits never have gotten high enough to restore demand/employment/output In the 1990’s private sector deficits (increasing private sector borrowings) did the heavy […]


[Skip to the end] Karim writes: -533k in payrolls, and downward revisions of -199k to prior 2 mths Unemployment rate rises ‘only’ to 6.7% from 6.5% because 422k left the labor force The 2 real shockers are: Index of hours fell 0.9% for the month (after -0.4% prior mth); even adjusting for some productivity gwth, […]

Re: State payrolls suggest a downward revision to April

[Skip to the end] (an email exchange) > > the sum of state payrolls just came out for April showing -151k jobs, vs > the actual prelim rleease earlier this mth of -20k. hints at a potentially > large downward revision to April payrolls when the May data is released. > Thanks! Plenty of export […]

ABC Buying Climate Index

Yes, one more data point indicating we hit the wall right around year end. (ISM, car sales, payrolls, redbook sales) Maybe the stock market scared consumers? Cliff is convinced stock market drops cause consumer retrenchment and recessions. Can’t say I disagree with something like 75% of Americans now holding shares. But something did change and […]