China Archive

Redbook retail sales, Inflation adjustment, China, House prices, Consumer confidence

Still depressed Lower than the Fed thought: U.S. inflation probably lower than reported, Fed study says Aug 24 (Reuters) — U.S. inflation in the first half of the year was probably “markedly lower” than reported according to the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank. Researchers at the regional Fed bank had earlier found ...Read More

China News

Reads to me like policy is moving back towards growth and ‘inflation?’ I don’t expect runaway inflation but enough to continue to fundamentally continue to weaken the currency. China’s currency has been fundamentally weakened for the last couple of years, while being supported vs the dollar by foreign investment, speculation, and what ...Read More

Forbes – Property Prices Collapse in China. Is This a Crash?

Reads like the inflation problem was worse then most thought, and that a hard landing might still actually be happening. No way to actually tell in real time. With China a first half/second half story, as previously discussed, January will bring a fresh slug of new govt. lending/spending that should at least ...Read More

Credit spillovers from Eur banks to EM

Makes sense. I always wondered how that loan demand was accommodated. Never looked like the kind of lending US regulators would sanction. Karim writes: Interesting table from JPM. Much larger dependence on credit from Eur banks for LATAM economies than from U.S. banks. Poland/Russia not as surprising but still large! Overall, domestic ...Read More

Euro Bailout Fund Chief Sees No Quick China Deal

Now it all starts unraveling. It’s all talk- another ‘optical illusion’ with no operational reality I sight. The China participation isn’t a done deal. The 50% haircut isn’t a done deal either as they haven’t yet figured out how to actually do it without a default event. The EFSF contributions aren’t a ...Read More

Crude Oil Update

Still seems to me that the idea that WTI appreciates to Brent as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve release winds down over the next few weeks is playing out as previously discussed. The WTI discount depends on a serious glut condition persisting, and the wind down of the approx 3.8 million barrels a ...Read More

Shanghai New Home Sales Plunge 77% Y/y to 6-Year Low

This doesn’t need to mean hard landing, but it means the state has to be that much more countercyclical to hold it all together, and they are facing what they consider a serious inflation problem. Shanghai New Home Sales Plunge 77% Y/y to 6-Year Low, Uwin Says Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) — Transactions ...Read More

China Extends Crackdown on Off-Balance-Sheet Loans

Cutbacks now will further slow things: China Extends Crackdown on Off-Balance-Sheet Loans July 4 (Reuters) — China’s bank regulator has cracked down on off-balance-sheet lending by the country’s banks, sources told Reuters on Monday, its latest step to prevent over-zealous and risky lending from hurting its financial system. China Banking Regulatory Commission ...Read More

Modern Monetary Theory: The Last Progressive Left Standing

Modern Monetary Theory: The Last Progressive Left Standing By Warren Mosler ...Read More

China’s New Missile May Create a ‘No-Go Zone’ for U.S. Fleet

[Skip to the end] I suspect this is what Iran is developing as well to drive the US Navy out of the Gulf region. China’s New Missile May Create a ‘No-Go Zone’ for U.S. Fleet By Tony Capaccio Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) — China’s military is close to fielding the world’s first anti-ship ...Read More