2007-12-27 US Economic Releases

MBAVPCH Index MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 21) Survey n/a Actual -7.6% Prior 19.5% Revised n/a Goes down this time every year and bounces back early January. Durable Goods Orders (Nov) Survey 2.0% Actual 0.1% Prior -0.4% Revised -0.4% Durable Goods Ex Transportation (Nov) Survey 0.5% Actual -0.7% Prior -0.7% Revised -0.9% Still ...Read More

Italian budget deficit down towards 2%

Falling deficits in general in the Eurozone due to the growth rate of GDP combined and the countercyclical tax structure. Aggregate demand from non government credit expansion (and some from exports) is supporting GDP as support from government deficit spending wanes. This can go on for quite a while as consumer leverage ...Read More

gas demand +.9%

Give Saudi/Russians comfort that they can keep hiking. And markets say Fed will keep ‘accommodating’. So much for higher prices curbing demand! DJ US Gasoline Demand +0.9% On Week – MasterCard SpendingPulse(DJ) NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–U.S. gasoline demand for the week ended Dec. 21, measured by purchases at the pump, rose 0.9% ...Read More

Saudi/Fed teamwork

Looks like markets are still trading with the assumption that as the Saudis/Russians hike prices the Fed will accommodate with rate cut. That’s a pretty good incentive for more Saudi/Russian oil price hikes, as if they needed any! Likewise, the US is a large exporter of grains and foods. Those prices are ...Read More

2007-12-26 US Economic Releases

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Oct) Survey n/a Actual 192.9 Prior 195.6 Revised 195.7 S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY (Oct) Survey -5.7% Actual -6.1% Prior 4.9% Revised n/a S&P/CS 20 MoM (Oct) Survey n/a Actual -1.42% Prior -0.84% Revised n/a % Change -69.05% S&P/Case-Shiller TABLE Survey 1 Actual -4 Prior 0 Revised n/a It’s a ...Read More

Government spending and inflation comments

Note how the ‘soft spot’ in govt. spending corresponds to the softening in domestic demand. Fortunately exports have been expanding sufficiently to sustain reasonably high levels of GDP. Looks like a full recovery from the Aug 06 gasoline price collapsed engineered by Goldman’s changing of their commodity index weightings? ♥ ...Read More

Strong gdp and high credit losses

CNBC just had a session on trying to reconcile high gdp with large credit losses. Seems they are now seeing the consumer clipping along at a +2.8% pace for Q4. No need to rehash my ongoing position that most if not all the losses announced in the last 6 months would have ...Read More

Re: Is $700 billion a big number

(an email and an article) On Dec 23, 2007 5:37 PM, Russell Huntley wrote: > > > > For a very bearish take on the credit crisis, see: Crisis may make 1929 look > a ‘walk in the park’. The article includes a $700 billion loss estimate from > the head of ...Read More

It’s been hard for me to get in sync with markets where higher energy prices mean lower interest rates!

♥ ...Read More

Repo Mkts and TAF

(an interoffice email) On 12/21/07, Pat Doyle wrote: > > > > It is becoming apparent that the funding pressures for year end are ebbing. > The ease in pressure has a lot to do with the TAF and coordinated CBK > interventions. The Fed is getting the cash to the people ...Read More