Re: credit recap

(an interoffice email) > > > > Mkt did not like the Fed move today- IG9 went from 70 out to 78.75 after the > news. CMBS cash (which had a roaring spread tightening in the morning of > about 15bp) gave all but 6bp of it back. There was a rumor ...Read More

UST ASW update

(an interoffice email) > > > 16bp day for 2yr spreads today: > > > > The market went into the fed announcement expecting perfection > > 25-50bp cut and 50bps on the discount window. > > > > Spreads were 6 lower on the day in the 2yr sprds and 3 ...Read More

Financing desk comments

I’m lost for an explanation as to whey the Fed ignored the year end liquidity issue entirely, after alluding to it in various speeches and allowing the impression that they were going to address it at the meeting persist. Keep me posted as to how LIBOR is over the turn (as well ...Read More


(interoffice email) > Dovish statement not matched by actions (no lowering of FF-Discount Rate > spread). As Tom Brady recently commented, “Well done is better than well > said”. Yes, seems they ignored the FF/LIBOR an year end issues in general. After two cuts in the FF and the discount rates that ...Read More

Dec 11 balance of risks update

Labor markets remain stronger than expected, right up through this morning’s Manpower survey for next quarter. Inflation risks remain elevated, with estimates of 1.5% PPI and 0.6% CPI the consensus for Thursday and Friday, and CPI core moving higher as well. While several funding spreads have widened vs. fed funds, absolute rates ...Read More

Bear Stearns U.S. Economics: Small business optimism down

The NFIB small business optimism index fell to 94.4 in November from 96.2 in October. Although the net percentage of firms planning to expand was little changed at 13% in November versus 14% in October, the net percentage of firms expecting the economy to improve fell sharply to -10.0 from -2.0. Watching ...Read More

Manpower survey better than expected

Bernanke stated he was watching the labor markets closely, right up to the meeting, and the latest survey further confirms its holding up at least as well as expected, if not quite a bit better. The headline and lead in, however, continue to indicate a reporting bias toward a slowdown: U.S. Employers ...Read More

China’s export prices

Checked with our China economist, it appears that China’s export price has been rising since early 06. Compared to the price by end of 06, export prices are already 7.4% higher (See charts attached)-an interoffice email While headlines focus on China’s internal inflation issues, more relevant to the fed are China’s export ...Read More

Fed expected to lower rates despite raging inflation – MarketWatch

And the risk is headlines could get much worse after they cut. For example: ‘Oil prices rise as Fed rate cuts drive down the dollar’ ‘Fed cuts rates, driving up gas prices, to bail out banks’ MarketWatch article – Fed expected to lower rates despite raging inflation ...Read More

Washington Mutual to take writedown, cut jobs

Yet another shoe that didn’t fall. No business interruption, no change to aggregate demand, a relatively few layoffs over time, and this is a major California lender where housing is hurting perhaps the most of any state. Washington Mutual to Take Writedown, Cut Jobs (Update1) 2007-12-10 17:00 (New York) (Adds writedown in ...Read More