Tag Archives: Leading Indicators

2009-03-19 USER

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Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 14)

Survey 655K
Actual 646K
Prior 654K
Revised 658K

 
Karim writes:

  • Initial claims fall 12k to 646k (prior week revised up 4k)

  • Continuing claims rise another 185k to 5473k, +349k in last 2 weeks and more than double Jan 2008 level

  • Continuing claims correlated to longer duration of unemployment, drawing down of savings (assuming expenses greater than jobless benefit), and less pressure on wages

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Continuing Claims (Mar 7)

Survey 5323K
Actual 5473K
Prior 5317K
Revised 5288K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Mar 7)

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Leading Indicators (Feb)

Survey -0.6%
Actual -0.4%
Prior 0.4%
Revised 0.1%

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Leading Indicators ALLX (Feb)

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Philadelphia Fed (Mar)

Survey -39.0
Actual -35.0
Prior -41.3
Revised n/a

 
Karim writes:

  • Philly Fed headline (not a wtd avg of components) improves from -41.3 to -35

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    Philadelphia Fed TABLE 1 (Mar)

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    Philadelphia Fed TABLE 2 (Mar)


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    2009-02-19 USER

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    Producer Price Index MoM (Jan)

    Survey 0.3%
    Actual 0.8%
    Prior -1.9%
    Revised n/a

     
    Karim writes:

    • PPI up 0.8% and 0.4% core; core boosted by some annual one-offs (prescriptions at 1.1% and tobacco at 0.6%)
    • Pipeline pressures continue to decline; intermediate -0.7% and core intermediate -1.1%; crude -2.9% and core crude 0.1%

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    PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Jan)

    Survey 0.1%
    Actual 0.4%
    Prior 0.2%
    Revised n/a

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    Producer Price Index YoY (Jan)

    Survey -2.4%
    Actual -1.0%
    Prior -0.9%
    Revised n/a

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    PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Jan)

    Survey 3.8%
    Actual 4.2%
    Prior 4.3%
    Revised n/a

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    Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 14)

    Survey 620K
    Actual 627K
    Prior 623K
    Revised 627K

     
    Karim writes:

    • Initial claims remain unch at 627k (prior week revised up 4k)
    • Continuing claims up 170k to new cycle high

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    Continuing Claims (Feb 7)

    Survey 4830K
    Actual 4987K
    Prior 4810K
    Revised 4817K

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    Jobless Claims ALLX (Feb 14)

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    Leading Indicators (Jan)

    Survey 0.1%
    Actual 0.4%
    Prior 0.3%
    Revised 0.2%

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    Leading Indicators ALLX (Jan)

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    Philadelphia Fed (Feb)

    Survey -25.0
    Actual -41.3
    Prior -24.3
    Revised n/a

     
    Karim writes:

    • Philly Fed confirms Empire survey earlier this week that rate of decline in manufacturing is accelerating.
    • Headline activity, orders, shipments, and employment all fall sharply

    Feb 2009 Jan 2009 Dec 2008 Nov 2008 Oct 2008 Sept 2008 Aug 2008 6 month avg
    General Business Activity -41.3 -24.3 -36.1 -39.8 -38.7 1.9 -20.1 -29.7
    Prices Paid -13.7 -27.0 -25.5 -26.6 10.2 32.5 53.0 -8.4
    Prices Received -27.8 -26.2 -32.8 -11.3 5.0 15.1 25.1 -13.0
    New Orders -30.3 -22.3 -28.2 -29.3 -30.6 3.8 -15.2 -22.8
    Shipments -32.4 -16.7 -29.7 -19.3 -17.6 -1.3 -6.1 -19.5
    # of Employees -45.8 -39.0 -28.6 -23.8 -19.2 -3.2 -4.6 -26.6

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    Philadelphia Fed TABLE 1 (Feb)

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    Philadelphia Fed TABLE 2 (Feb)


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    2009-01-26 USER

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    Existing Home Sales (Dec )

    Survey 4.40M
    Actual 4.74M
    Prior 4.49M
    Revised 4.45M

     
    Existing home inventories now being worked off rapidly as foreclosure sales move through the pipeline.

    Inventories in general are all very low in absolute terms.

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    Existing Home Sales MoM (Dec)

    Survey -2.0%
    Actual 6.5%
    Prior -8.6%
    Revised 9.4%

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    Existing Home Sales YoY (Dec)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -3.5%
    Prior -11.4%
    Revised n/a

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    Existing Home Sales Inventory (Dec)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 3.676
    Prior 4.163
    Revised n/a

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    Existing Home Sales ALLX 1 (Dec)

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    Existing Home Sales ALLX 2 (Dec)

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    Leading Indicators (Dec)

    Survey -0.2%
    Actual 0.3%
    Prior -0.4%
    Revised n/a

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    Leading Indicators ALLX (Dec)


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    2008-12-18 USER

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    Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 13)

    Survey 558K
    Actual 554K
    Prior 573K
    Revised 575K

     
    Down a bit but 4 week average still moving up.

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    Continuing Claims (Dec 6)

    Survey 4375K
    Actual 4384K
    Prior 4429K
    Revised 4431K

     
    Down a touch, but still going parabolic.

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    Jobless Claims ALLX (Dec 13)

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    Philadelphia Fed (Dec)

    Survey -40.5
    Actual -32.9
    Prior -39.3
    Revised n/a

     
    Better than expected, up a touch, but still at very low levels.

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    Philadelphia Fed TABLE 1 (Dec)

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    Philadelphia Fed TABLE 2 (Dec)

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    Leading Indicators (Nov)

    Survey -0.4%
    Actual -0.4%
    Prior -0.8%
    Revised -0.9%

     
    Still looking soft.

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    Leading Indicators ALLX (Nov)


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    2008-11-20 USER

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    Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 15)

    Survey 505K
    Actual 542K
    Prior 516K
    Revised 515K

     
    Bad!

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    Continuing Claims (Nov 8)

    Survey 3900K
    Actual 4012K
    Prior 3897K
    Revised 3903K

     
    Bad!

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    Jobless Claims ALLX (Nov 15)

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    Philadelphia Fed (Nov)

    Survey -35.0
    Actual -39.3
    Prior -37.5
    Revised n/a

     
    Deep into recession levels.

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    Philadelphia Fed TABLE 1 (Nov)

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    Philadelphia Fed TABLE 2 (Nov)

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    Leading Indicators (Oct)

    Survey -0.6%
    Actual -0.8%
    Prior 0.3%
    Revised 0.1%

     
    Keeps heading lower.

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    Leading Indicators ALLX (Oct)


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    2008-09-18 USER

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    Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 13)

    Survey 440K
    Actual 445K
    Prior 445K
    Revised n/a

     
    Staying at the top of the new range since the extended benefit package went into force. And might be a touch high due to the hurricane.

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    Continuing Jobless Claims (Sep 6)

    Survey 3525K
    Actual 3478K
    Prior 3525K
    Revised 3533K

     
    Down a bit and better than expected but still on the high side.

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    Jobless Claims ALLX (Sep 13)

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    Philadelphia Fed (Sep)

    Survey -10.0
    Actual 3.8
    Prior -12.7
    Revised n/a

     
    Back to positive territory with an upside surprise.

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    Philadelphia Fed TABLE (Sep)

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    Philadelphia Fed TABLE 2 (Sep)

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    Leading Indicators (Aug)

    Survey -0.2%
    Actual -0.5%
    Prior -0.7%
    Revised n/a

     
    Leading indicators down more than expected. This is largely a financial conditions indicator.

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    Leading Indicators ALLX (Aug)

    <

    Karim writes:

    • Initial claims rise 10k to new cycle of 455k but DOL states Gustav-related claims helped boost weekly rise.

    • 4wk avg rises to 445k from 440k.

    • Continuing claims fall 55k to 3478k, partially reversing prior weeks large 129k increase.

    • 4wk average of continuing rises from 3431k to 3461k.

    • Even if initial claims would have been lower ex-Gustav, recent trends in both IJC and CC reflect a faster pace of labor market deterioration.

    • Next month’s payrolls likely to be down more than 100k.


    • Activity index rises from -12.7 to 3.8.

    • Prices paid drop from 57.5 to 31.5.

    • Orders and shipments rise 17.5 and 5.9pts, respectively, both into modest positive position.

    • Employment component basically unch at -0.9.


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    2008-08-21 US Economic Releases

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    Initial Jobless Claims (Aug 16)

    Survey 440K
    Actual 432K
    Prior 450K
    Revised 445K

    Still high, even though lower than expected and last week revised down some. It will take a while before the effect of the new extended benefit program is altering the numbers.

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    Continuing Jobless Claims (Aug 9)

    Survey 3405K
    Actual 3362K
    Prior 3417K
    Revised 3379K

    Also lower than expected and last week revised down, But still high and not showing any meaningful signs of a top.

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    Jobless Claims TABLE 1 (Aug 16)

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    Jobless Claims TABLE 2 (Aug 16)

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    Philadelphia Fed (Aug)

    Survey -12.6
    Actual -12.7
    Prior -16.3
    Revised n/a

    Still negative, but the rate of contraction seems to be declining.

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    Philadelphia Fed TABLE 1 (Aug)

    Prices paid down some, but still way high.

    Employment improved to near flat.

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    Philadelphia Fed TABLE 2 (Aug)

    Workweek creeping up some.

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    Leading Indicators (Jul)

    Survey -0.2%
    Actual -0.7%
    Prior -0.1%
    Revised 0.0%

    Worse than expected. This is a domestic demand indicator that has been trending down for quite a while.

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    Leading Indicators ALLX (Jul)

    A lot of the specifics seem questionable regarding relevance.


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