ECB Archive

Comments on transport weakness, Draghi comments, Japan exports to US, new home sales,PMI and Fed indexes chart, Dallas Fed, Richmond Fed, Consumer confidence

Transport Is Saying Consumer Spending Should Slow Further By Steven Hansen When one analyzes the economy, there are always some sections which do better than others. When the economic growth is weak (like currently), several segments can be in contraction while others are expanding. Everything but the needed fiscal relaxation: ECB’s Draghi ...Read More

Railcar traffic, Draghi statement, NY manufacturing survey, Industrial production, Consumer confidence

Rail Week Ending 09 May 2015: Data Still Not Pretty. Rail Softness Continues. (Econintersect) — Week 18 of 2015 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic improved, which accounts for half of movements – ...Read More

claims, producer prices, euro comments, public sector jobs

Just a reminder, claims measure those losing jobs who file for benefits, not new hires: Jobless Claims The euro has been moving higher vs the dollar, as CB selling winds down as they reach the lower limits of their reserve targets along with fundamental support from a large and growing EU current ...Read More

Chicago Fed, EU CPI

Who would have thought? Chicago Fed National Activity Index Highlights March was not a good month for the economy, an assessment confirmed by the national activity index which fell steeply to minus 0.42 vs an already weak and downwardly revised minus 0.18 in February. And the first quarter as a whole was ...Read More

Housing starts, Italy Merchandise Trade, UK opinion chart, ECB euro policy musings

Moving up some but still relatively low, but as previously discussed, this is about people losing jobs, not new hires: Jobless Claims And yet another lower than expected release: Housing Starts Just anecdotal evidence of what happens as the euro is pushed down by CB portfolio selling to ‘equate supply and demand’ ...Read More

US macro update, FX update

US macro update: So looks to me like it’s all gone bad since the oil price crash, exactly as feared, and the Atlanta Fed most recently lowered it’s Q1 GDP estimate to 0. First, a quick review of the accounting. GDP = spending = sales = income. An increase in spending = ...Read More

more QE nonsense

Aztec economics- sacrifices made the sun rise… The same logic also proves QE likewise prevented elephant attacks in Rome this year… ECB Loans Data Suggests QE is Working By Todd Duell March 26 (WSJ) — Data showed lending to firms and households rose in February, with loans to corporates rising by €8 ...Read More

Greek bank liquidity, Fed minutes, Architecture Billings Index

As previously discussed, and relayed to the finance minister in Greece, there is no reason to assume the ECB will cut off liquidity to Greek banks. First, those banks are private institutions, and regulated and supervised by the ECB, who has deemed them ‘solvent’ and ‘adequately capitalized’ and therefore eligible for liquidity ...Read More

A Modest Response

A Modest Proposal for Resolving the Eurozone Crisis By Y. Varoufakis, S. Holland AND J.K. Galbraith 1. Prologue Europe is fragmenting. While in the past year the European Central Bank has managed to stabilise the bond markets, the economies of the European core and its periphery are drifting apart. As this happens, ...Read More

The latest QE policy removes ECB ‘conditionality’

Several years ago Mario Draghi announced the ECB would do what it takes (within the rules) to prevent national govt defaults, which immediately reversed the climb of national govt rates, bringing them down to where they are today. But it also came with ‘conditionality’ regarding fiscal policy, where a violation of the ...Read More