ECB Archive

Housing starts, Italy Merchandise Trade, UK opinion chart, ECB euro policy musings

Moving up some but still relatively low, but as previously discussed, this is about people losing jobs, not new hires: Jobless Claims And yet another lower than expected release: Housing Starts Just anecdotal evidence of what happens as the euro is pushed down by CB portfolio selling to ‘equate supply and demand’ ...Read More

US macro update, FX update

US macro update: So looks to me like it’s all gone bad since the oil price crash, exactly as feared, and the Atlanta Fed most recently lowered it’s Q1 GDP estimate to 0. First, a quick review of the accounting. GDP = spending = sales = income. An increase in spending = ...Read More

more QE nonsense

Aztec economics- sacrifices made the sun rise… The same logic also proves QE likewise prevented elephant attacks in Rome this year… ECB Loans Data Suggests QE is Working By Todd Duell March 26 (WSJ) — Data showed lending to firms and households rose in February, with loans to corporates rising by €8 ...Read More

Greek bank liquidity, Fed minutes, Architecture Billings Index

As previously discussed, and relayed to the finance minister in Greece, there is no reason to assume the ECB will cut off liquidity to Greek banks. First, those banks are private institutions, and regulated and supervised by the ECB, who has deemed them ‘solvent’ and ‘adequately capitalized’ and therefore eligible for liquidity ...Read More

A Modest Response

A Modest Proposal for Resolving the Eurozone Crisis By Y. Varoufakis, S. Holland AND J.K. Galbraith 1. Prologue Europe is fragmenting. While in the past year the European Central Bank has managed to stabilise the bond markets, the economies of the European core and its periphery are drifting apart. As this happens, ...Read More

The latest QE policy removes ECB ‘conditionality’

Several years ago Mario Draghi announced the ECB would do what it takes (within the rules) to prevent national govt defaults, which immediately reversed the climb of national govt rates, bringing them down to where they are today. But it also came with ‘conditionality’ regarding fiscal policy, where a violation of the ...Read More

ECB, Jobless Claims, Sea Container Counts, Housing Starts, Purchase apps, Architecture Billings, miles driven, Redbook sales, my take on consequences of $50 oil

Like the carpenter with the piece of wood “no matter how much I cut off it’s still too short” Draghi has yet to realize rate cuts/QE/etc. are a deflationary/contractionary bias: *DRAGHI SAYS WILL BUY UNTIL SEE SUSTAINED INFLATION IMPROVEMENT Jobless Claims Highlights Jobless claims have been inching higher and are not pointing ...Read More

Comments on Greece

A couple of ‘fundamentals’ A default/restructure/debt reduction of any form removes euro financial assets and is a contractionary/deflationary bias that makes euro ‘harder to get’ and thereby firms the currency. Also, Greece has been running a budget deficit, which adds net euro the global economy, making euro easier to get, etc. so ...Read More

EU Commission- more of same

:( Latvia’s Dombrovskis Brings Fiscal Hawk Record to EU Commission By Mathew Dalton Oct 5 (WSJ) — The budget hawk who steered Latvia out of economic collapse with a bruising austerity program is poised to get one of the EU’s top economic-policy jobs as Europe is heading toward a clash over austerity. ...Read More

ECB relying export driven growth through euro depreciation

Note below that he states it’s the fx channel that the ECB is relying on to support aggregate demand. Good luck to them, it doesn’t work that way!!! From the speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Annual central bank symposium in Jackson Hole, 22 August 2014: Boosting aggregate demand On ...Read More