Talk still cheap – ECB writes the check again

Lots of talk, particularly from Germany about the ECB not writing the check, due to (errant) inflation concerns.

But to no avail. In fact, with the Rubicon crossing decision to haircut Greek bonds 50% for the private sector’s holdings, expect the check writing to continue to intensify.

And expect economies to continue to slow under the pressure of continuing austerity demands that also work to make their deficits higher.

From today’s headlines:

Italian Bonds Advance as ECB Purchases Debt; French, Belgian Spreads Widen
A Successor, Picked by a Tainted Hand
EU Lowers Euro-Region Growth Forecasts
Italy’s Senate Speeds Austerity Vote
Merkel’s Party May Adopt Euro-Exit Clause in Platform, CDU’s Barthle Says
Greek President to Meet Party Leaders as Unity Aim in Disarray

Italian Bonds Advance as ECB Purchases Debt; French, Belgian Spreads Widen

By Paul Dobson

November 10 (Bloomberg) — Italian government bonds rose as the European Central Bank was said to purchase the securities and after the nation sold the maximum amount of one-year bills on offer at an auction.

The advance pushed the yield on 10-year securities below 7 percent. Italy’s senate is set to vote tomorrow on a package of austerity measures designed to clear the way for establishing a new government and restore confidence in Europe’s second-biggest debtor. The nation sold 5 billion euros ($6.8 billion) of bills at an average yield of 6.087 percent, up from 3.570 percent on similar-maturity securities sold last month.

“Together with reported ECB buying, this auction result should support further Italy outperformance,” said Luca Jellinek, head of European interest-rate strategy at Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank in London.

The yield on two-year Italian government notes slid 55 basis points to 6.66 percent at 9:43 a.m. London time. The 2.25 percent securities due November 2013 rose 0.915, or 9.15 euros per 1,000-euro face amount, to 92.205.

The ECB bought Italian government bonds, according to five people familiar with the transactions, who declined to be identified because the deals are confidential. It also bought Spanish securities, two of the people added. The ECB was not immediately available for comment when contacted by telephone.

Valance Weekly Report 11.9.2011

Valance Weekly Report

(To download PDF, right click link and select save link as)

Highlights
US – Underwhelming payroll report
EU – ECB cut rates; Greece and Italian Prime Ministers agree to step down
JN – Exports improve
UK – Negative effect from Euro-area crisis
CA – BoC renewed its inflation target.
AU – RBA cut Growth/CPI forecast
NZ – Unemployment continued to edged up

German “wise men” (classic oxymoron) warn ECB is risking credibility

German “wise men” warn ECB is risking credibility

By Alexandra Hudson

November 9 (Reuters) — Germany’s “wise men” panel of economic advisers warned the European Central Bank it risks losing credibility by buying the bonds of heavily-indebted euro zone states, and that monetary and fiscal policy are becoming worryingly blurred.

The group, which advises the German government, said in a report published on Wednesday: “The bond buying program dismantles market discipline without establishing any political discipline in its place.”

What about the Stability and Growth Pact? And what other choice do they offer?

In blurring monetary and fiscal policy, the report said, “the ECB is jeopardizing its credibility, because it is falling under the suspicion of monetizing sovereign indebtedness.”

Meaningless in the context of fiat currency and floating fx policy.

Germany strongly objects to the bond-buying strategy but the ECB’s new president Mario Draghi has signaled the bank is ready to carry on buying bonds of troubled euro zone governments.

The wise men said they expected the bank to make a further cut in the key euro zone interest rate to 1 percent by the end of 2011, and that rates would remain at this level throughout 2012.

The silver bullet!

In the report, the panel suggested a different method for increasing the euro zone’s capacity to prevent contagion from the debt crisis, should the 440 billion-euro European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) not suffice.

In what the “wise men” said would be a departure from current models of securing debt with ever more borrowing, they advised setting up a “European Redemption Pact.”

This would involve countries with sovereign debt above 60 percent of GDP pooling their excess debt into a redemption fund with common liability. They would commit to reforms and see their debts repaid over 20-25 years.

Within a few years the redemption fund could have a volume of 2.3 trillion euros worth of bonds, the study said.

Back to standing in a bucket and picking yourself up by the handle.

Germany, the euro zone’s largest economy and growth engine of the last two years, is expected to see economic expansion stutter in coming quarters as the euro zone debt crisis saps business and consumer confidence and export markets shrink.

Including exports to the other euro members as their economies continue to slow as well.

The “wise men” forecast economic growth of 0.9 percent in 2012, slightly below the 1.0 percent forecast by the government, which last month almost halved its estimate from a previous 1.8 percent.

Growth this year was seen at a healthy 3 percent.

Thanks to ECB supported funding for Greece and the others used to buy German goods and services.

For BTPS & SPGBs all inter dealer screens have gone blank

As previously discussed, it’s hard to see how anyone with fiduciary responsibility can buy Italian debt or any other member nation debt after EU officials announced the plan for 50% haircuts on Greek bonds held by the private sector.

Yes, all governments have the authority, one way or another, to confiscate an investors funds. But they don’t, and work to establish credibility that they won’t.

But now that the EU has actually announced they are going to do it, as a fiduciary you’d have to be a darn fool to support investing any client funds in any member nation debt.

The last buyer standing is and was always to be the ECB, which will now be buying most all new member nation debt as there is no alternative that includes survival of the union.

And when this happens there will be a massive relief response, as the solvency issue will be behind them, with the euro firming as well.

Then the reality of the state of their economy take over, as GDP continues to fade and unemployment continues to rise until they figure out austerity can’t work and instead they need to proactively increase their member nation’s budget deficits.

Hopefully this doesn’t take quite so long as it took to figure out the ECB has to write the check.

But this one might take even longer as it will be a function of blood in the streets rather than funding capacity.

   
>   (email exchange)
>   
>   On Wednesday, November 09, 2011 5:37 AM, Dave wrote:
>   
>    For BTPS & SPGBs all inter dealer screens have gone blank and there is no liquidity left.
>    There are really no quotes for even 10y BTPs for example and the last bids were hit
>    about 80BP wider for the day vs Bunds.
>   

Michael Bloomberg: Best Economic Stimulus is Now Fiscal Responsibility

So much for his legacy…

Mayor Bloomberg Outlines Specific Actions For Super Committee

By Michael Bloomberg

November 8 (Moment of Truth Project) — Mayor: Best Economic Stimulus is Now Fiscal Responsibility – Super Committee Must Break Partisan Deadlock and Take Bold Action.

The following are Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg’s remarks as prepared for delivery today at a forum hosted by the Center for American Progress and the American Action Forum at the Center for American Progress’ headquarters in Washington, DC. Please check against delivery.

Weidmann comments for MMT on Zero Hedge

ECB’s Weidmann Spoils The Party: Says Leveraging EFSF Violation Of EU Treaty, Warns Of Hyperinflation

By Tyler Durden

November 8 (Zero Hedge) — Trust the Germans in the ECB (those who have not yet resigned that is) in this case Jesn Weidmann, to come in and spoil the party:

  • Weidmann, speaking in Berlin, says hyperinflation shows why monetizing debt wrong
  • Prohibition on monetary financing an important achievement.
  • Euro treaty rightly forbids monetary financing
  • Stable prices should be key goal of ECB
  • Leveraging EFSF with currency reserves prohibited
  • Says monetary analysis may gain importance at ECB

  • And for all our MMT friends:

  • “One of the severest forms of monetary policy being roped in for fiscal purposes is monetary financing, in colloquial terms also known as the financing of public debt via the money printing press:” Weidmann
  • Prohibition of monetary financing in the euro area “is one of the most important achievements in central banking” and “specifically for Germany, it is also a key lesson from the experience of hyperinflation after World War I”

  • Summary from Bloomberg

    Merkel is seeking to make it easier for the German arms industry to export weapons

    Merkel Seeks to Ease German Arms Exports

    November 8 (Spiegel) — Chancellor Angela Merkel is seeking to make it easier for the German arms industry to export weapons. In a position paper sent to Brussels recently, Berlin asked that “economic interests” be “adequately considered” when it comes to export controls on arms shipments.

    On a similar theme, ThyssenKrupp looking to distance itself from its joint venture with Ferrostaal – the Munich public prosecutor’s office has accused Ferrostaal of paying millions of euros in bribes to Greece related to the purchase of 214-class submarines.

    Comments on Senator Sanders article on the Fed

    Dear Senator Sanders,

    Thank you for your attention to this matter!
    My comments appear below:

    The Veil of Secrecy at the Fed Has Been Lifted, Now It’s Time for Change

    By Senator Bernie Sanders

    November 2 (Huffington Post) — As a result of the greed, recklessness, and illegal behavior on Wall Street, the American people have experienced the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.

    Not to mention the institutional structure that rewarded said behavior, and, more important, the failure of government to respond in a timely manner with policy to ensure the financial crisis didn’t spill over to the real economy.

    Millions of Americans, through no fault of their own, have lost their jobs, homes, life savings, and ability to send their kids to college. Small businesses have been unable to get the credit they need to expand their businesses, and credit is still extremely tight. Wages as a share of national income are now at the lowest level since the Great Depression, and the number of Americans living in poverty is at an all-time high.

    Yes, it’s all a sad disgrace.

    Meanwhile, when small-business owners were being turned down for loans at private banks and millions of Americans were being kicked out of their homes, the Federal Reserve provided the largest taxpayer-financed bailout in the history of the world to Wall Street and too-big-to-fail institutions, with virtually no strings attached.

    Only partially true. For the most part the institutions did fail, as shareholder equity was largely lost. Failure means investors lose, and the assets of the failed institution sold or otherwise transferred to others.

    But yes, some shareholders and bonds holders (and executives) who should have lost were protected.

    Over two years ago, I asked Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, a few simple questions that I thought the American people had a right to know: Who got money through the Fed bailout? How much did they receive? What were the terms of this assistance?

    Incredibly, the chairman of the Fed refused to answer these fundamental questions about how trillions of taxpayer dollars were being spent.

    The American people are finally getting answers to these questions thanks to an amendment I included in the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill which required the Government Accountability Office (GAO) to audit and investigate conflicts of interest at the Fed. Those answers raise grave questions about the Federal Reserve and how it operates — and whose interests it serves.

    As a result of these GAO reports, we learned that the Federal Reserve provided a jaw-dropping $16 trillion in total financial assistance to every major financial institution in the country as well as a number of corporations, wealthy individuals and central banks throughout the world.

    Yes, however, while I haven’t seen the detail, that figure likely includes liquidity provision to FDIC insured banks which is an entirely separate matter and not rightly a ‘bailout’.

    The US banking system (rightly) works to serve public purpose by insuring deposits and bank liquidity in general. And history continues to ‘prove’ banking in general can work no other way.

    And once government has secured the banking system’s ability to fund itself, regulation and supervision is then applied to ensure banks are solvent as defined by the regulations put in place by Congress, and that all of their activities are in compliance with Congressional direction as well.

    The regulators are further responsible to appropriately discipline banks that fail to comply with Congressional standards.

    Therefore, the issue here is not with the liquidity provision by the Fed, but with the regulators and supervisors who oversee what the banks do with their insured, tax payer supported funding.

    In other words, the liability side of banking is not the place for market discipline. Discipline comes from regulation and supervision of bank assets, capital, and management.

    The GAO also revealed that many of the people who serve as directors of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks come from the exact same financial institutions that the Fed is in charge of regulating. Further, the GAO found that at least 18 current and former Fed board members were affiliated with banks and companies that received emergency loans from the Federal Reserve during the financial crisis. In other words, the people “regulating” the banks were the exact same people who were being “regulated.” Talk about the fox guarding the hen house!

    Yes, this is a serious matter. On the one hand you want directors with direct banking experience, while on the other you strive to avoid conflicts of interest.

    The emergency response from the Fed appears to have created two systems of government in America: one for Wall Street, and another for everyone else. While the rich and powerful were “too big to fail” and were given an endless supply of cheap credit, ordinary Americans, by the tens of millions, were allowed to fail.

    The Fed necessarily sets the cost of funds for the economy through its designated agents, the nations Fed member banks. It was the Fed’s belief that, in general, a lower cost of funds for the banking system, presumably to be passed through to the economy, was in the best interest of ‘ordinary Americans.’ And note that the lower cost of funds from the Fed does not necessarily help bank earnings and profits, as it reduces the interest banks earn on their capital and on excess funds banks have that consumers keep in their checking accounts.

    However, there was more that Congress could have done to keep homeowners from failing, beginning with making an appropriate fiscal adjustment in 2008 as the financial crisis intensified, and in passing regulations regarding foreclosure practices.

    Additionally, it should also be recognized that the Fed is, functionally, an agent of Congress, subject to immediate Congressional command. That is, the Congress has the power to direct the Fed in real time and is thereby also responsible for failures of Fed policy.

    They lost their homes. They lost their jobs. They lost their life savings. And, they lost their hope for the future. This is not what American democracy is supposed to look like. It is time for change at the Fed — real change.

    I blame this almost entirely on the failure of Congress to make the immediate and appropriate fiscal adjustments in 2008 that would have sustained employment and output even as the financial crisis took its toll on the shareholder equity of the financial sector.

    Congress also failed to act with regard to issues surrounding the foreclosure process that have worked against public purpose.

    Among the GAO’s key findings is that the Fed lacks a comprehensive system to deal with conflicts of interest, despite the serious potential for abuse. In fact, according to the GAO, the Fed actually provided conflict of interest waivers to employees and private contractors so they could keep investments in the same financial institutions and corporations that were given emergency loans.

    The GAO has detailed instance after instance of top executives of corporations and financial institutions using their influence as Federal Reserve directors to financially benefit their firms, and, in at least one instance, themselves.

    For example, the CEO of JP Morgan Chase served on the New York Fed’s board of directors at the same time that his bank received more than $390 billion in financial assistance from the Fed. Moreover, JP Morgan Chase served as one of the clearing banks for the Fed’s emergency lending programs.

    This demands thorough investigation, and in any case the conflict of interest should have been publicly revealed at the time.

    Getting this type of disclosure was not easy. Wall Street and the Federal Reserve fought it every step of the way. But, as difficult as it was to lift the veil of secrecy at the Fed, it will be even harder to reform the Fed so that it serves the needs of all Americans, and not just Wall Street. But, that is exactly what we have to do.

    Yes, I have always supported full transparency.

    To get this process started, I have asked some of the leading economists in this country to serve on an advisory committee to provide Congress with legislative options to reform the Federal Reserve.

    Here are some of the questions that I have asked this advisory committee to explore:

    1. How can we structurally reform the Fed to make our nation’s central bank a more democratic institution responsive to the needs of ordinary Americans, end conflicts of interest, and increase transparency? What are the best practices that central banks in other countries have developed that we can learn from? Compared with central banks in Europe, Canada, and Australia, the GAO found that the Federal Reserve does not do a good job in disclosing potential conflicts of interest and other essential elements of transparency.

    Yes, full transparency in ‘real time’ would serve public purpose.

    2. At a time when 16.5 percent of our people are unemployed or under-employed, how can we strengthen the Federal Reserve’s full-employment mandate and ensure that the Fed conducts monetary policy to achieve maximum employment? When Wall Street was on the verge of collapse, the Federal Reserve acted with a fierce sense of urgency to save the financial system. We need the Fed to act with the same boldness to combat the unemployment crisis.

    Unfortunately employment and output is not a function of what’s called ‘monetary policy’ so what is needed from the Fed is full support of an active fiscal policy focused on employment and price stability.

    3. The Federal Reserve has a responsibility to ensure the safety and soundness of financial institutions and to contain systemic risks in financial markets. Given that the top six financial institutions in the country now have assets equivalent to 65 percent of our GDP, more than $9 trillion, is there any reason why this extraordinary concentration of ownership should not be broken up? Should a bank that is “too big to fail” be allowed to exist?

    Larger size should be permitted only to the extent that it results in lower fees for the consumer. The regulators can require institutions that wish to grow be allowed to do so only in return for lower banking fees.

    4. The Federal Reserve has the responsibility to protect the credit rights of consumers. At a time when credit card issuers are charging millions of Americans interest rates between 25 percent or more, should policy options be established to ensure that the Federal Reserve and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau protect consumers against predatory lending, usury, and exorbitant fees in the financial services industry?

    Banks are public/private partnerships chartered by government for the further purpose of supporting a financial infrastructure that serves public purpose.

    The banks are government agents and should be addressed accordingly, always keeping in mind the mission is to support public purpose.

    In this case, because banks are government agents, the question is that of public purpose served by credit cards and related fees, and not the general ‘right’ of shareholders to make profits.

    Once public purpose has been established, the effective use of private capital to price risk in the context of a profit motive should then be addressed.

    5. At a time when the dream of homeownership has turned into the nightmare of foreclosure for too many Americans, what role should the Federal Reserve be playing in providing relief to homeowners who are underwater on their mortgages, combating the foreclosure crisis, and making housing more affordable?

    Again, it begins with a discussion of public purpose, where Congress must decide what, with regard to housing, best serves public purpose. The will of Congress can then be expressed by the institutional structure of its Federal banking system.

    Options available, for example, include the option of ordering that appraisals and income statements not be factors in refinancing loans originated by Federal institutions including banks and the Federal housing agencies. At the time of origination the lenders calculated their returns based on mortgages being refinanced as rates came down, assuming all borrowers would be eligible for refinancing. The financial crisis and subsequent failure of policy to sustain employment and output has given lenders an unexpected ‘bonus’ through a ‘technicality’ that allows them to refuse requests for refinancing at lower rates due to lower appraisals and lower incomes.

    6. At a time when the United States has the most inequitable distribution of wealth and income of any major country, and the greatest gap between the very rich and everyone else since 1928, what policies can be established at the Federal Reserve which reduces income and wealth inequality in the U.S?

    The root causes begin with Federal policy that has resulted in an unprecedented transfer of wealth to the financial sector at the expense of the real sectors. This can easily and immediately be reversed, which would serve to substantially reverse the trend income distribution.

    Sincerely,

    Warren Mosler

    MMT, The Euro And The Greatest Prediction Of The Last 20 Years?

    Thanks, Cullen!!!

    MMT, The Euro And The Greatest Prediction Of The Last 20 Years?

    By Cullen Roche

    November 7 (Seeking Alpha) —Being right matters. This isn’t emphasized quite enough in the finance world and in economics in general. Too often, bad theory has led to bad predictions which has helped contribute to bad policy. While MMT remains a heterodox economic school that has been largely shunned by mainstream economists, the modern proponents have an awfully good track record in predicting highly complex economic events.

    In the last few years, the Euro crisis has proven a remarkably complex and persistent event. And no school of thought so succinctly predicted the precise cause and effect, as the MMT school did. These predictions were not vague or general in any manner. In reading the research from MMTers at the time of the Euro’s inception, their predictions are almost eerily prescient. They broke down an entire monetary system and described exactly why its construction would lead to financial crisis if the union did not evolve.

    In 1992 Wynne Godley described the inherent flaw in the Euro:

    If a government does not have its own central bank on which it can draw cheques freely, its expenditures can be financed only by borrowing in the open market in competition with businesses, and this may prove excessively expensive or even impossible, particularly under conditions of extreme emergency….The danger then, is that the budgetary restraint to which governments are individually committed will impart a disinflationary bias that locks Europe as a whole into a depression it is powerless to lift.

    In his must read book “Understanding Modern Money” Randall Wray described (in 1998) the same dynamic that led to the crisis in the EMU:

    Under the EMU, monetary policy is supposed to be divorced from fiscal policy, with a great degree of monetary policy independencein order to focus on the primary objective of price stability. Fiscal policy, in turn will be tightly constrained by criteria which dictate maximum deficit to GDP and debt to deficit ratios. Most importantly, as Goodhart recognizes, this will be the world’s first modern experiment on a wide scale that would attempt to break the link between a government and its currency.

    …As currently designed, the EMU will have a central bank (the ECB) but it will not have any fiscal branch. This would be much like a US which operated with a Fed, but with only individual state treasuries. It will be as if each EMU member country were to attempt to operate fiscal policy in a foreign currency; deficit spending will require borrowing in that foreign currency according to the dictates of private markets.

    In 2002, Stephanie Kelton (then Stephanie Bell) was even more specific in describing the funding crisis that would inevitably ensue in the region:

    Countries that wish to compete for benchmark status, or to improve the terms on which they borrow, will have an incentive to reduce fiscal deficits or strive for budget surpluses. In countries where this becomes the overriding policy objective, we should not be surprised to find relatively little attention paid to the stabilization of output and employment. In contrast, countries that attempt to eschew the principles of “sound” finance may find that they are unable to run large, counter-cyclical deficits, as lenders refuse to provide sufficient credit on desirable terms. Until something is done to enable member states to avert these financial constraints (e.g. political union and the establishment of a federal (EU) budget or the establishment of a new lending institution, designed to aid member states in pursuing a broad set of policy objectives), the prospects for stabilization in the Eurozone appear grim. (emphasis added)

    In 2001 Warren Mosler described the liquidity crisisthat the Euro would lead to:

    Water freezes at 0 degrees C. But very still water can be cooled well below that and stay liquid until a catalyst, such as a sudden breeze, causes it to instantly solidify. Likewise, the conditions for a national liquidity crisis that will shut down the euro-12’s monetary system are firmly in place. All that is required is an economic slowdown that threatens either tax revenues or the capital of the banking system.

    A prosperous financial future belongs to those who respect the dynamics and are prepared for the day of reckoning. History and logic dictate that the credit sensitive euro-12 national governments and banking system will be tested. The market’s arrows will inflict an initially narrow liquidity crisis, which will immediately infect and rapidly arrest the entire euro payments system. Only the inevitable, currently prohibited, direct intervention of the ECB will be capable of performing the resurrection, and from the ashes of that fallen flaming star an immortal sovereign currency will no doubt emerge.

    In a recent article, Paul Krugman referred to some of his predictions as “big stuff”. What the MMT school has accomplished through its understanding and prescience of the European union is not merely “big stuff” – it is nothing short of remarkable. This was not merely saying that the Euro was flawed for this reason or that and that the construct of a united Europe was misguided (a prediction made by many at the time of the Euro’s inception due mainly to political biases). The MMT economists approached the formation of the Euro from a purely operational aspect and predicted with near perfection, exactly why it was flawed and exactly why it would not work as is currently constructed.

    Some economists say MMT focuses too much on reality by focusing on the actual operational aspects of the banking system and the monetary system. But as we have seen time and time again, having a poor understanding of the monetary system is not only detrimental to your portfolio, but detrimental to the millions of citizens who are now being subjected to the ignorance of the economists who influence these monetary constructs.

    News recap comments

    The news flow from last week was so voluminous it was nearly impossible to process. For good measure I want to start today’s commentary with a simple recap of what happened.

    On the negative side

    · Greece called a referendum and threw bailout plans up in the air taking Greek 2yrs from 70% to 90% or +2000bps.
    · Italian 10yr debt collapsed 40bps with spreads to Germany out 70bps. The moves were far larger in the 2yr sector.
    · France 10y debt widened 25bps to Germany. At one point spreads were almost 40 wider.
    · Italian PMI and Spanish employment data were miserable.
    · German factory orders plunged 4.3 percent on the month.
    · The planned EFSF bond for 3bio was pulled.
    · Itraxx financials were +34 while subs were +45.
    · Draghi predicted a recession for Europe along with disinflation.
    · The G20 was flop – there was no agreement on IMF involvement in Europe.
    · The US super committee deadline is 17 days away with no clear agreement.
    · The 8th largest US bankruptcy in history took place.
    · US 10yr and 30yr rallied 28bps, Spoos were -2.5%, the Dax was -6% and EURUSD was -3%.
    · German CDS was up 16bps on the week.

    On the positive side

    · The Fed showed its hand with tightening dissents now gone and an easing dissent in place.

    Too bad what they call ‘easing’ at best has been shown to do nothing.

    · The Fed’s significant downside risk language remained intact.

    Downside risks sound like bad news to me.

    · In the press conference Ben teed up QE3 in MBS space.

    Which at best have been shown to do little or nothing for the macro economy.

    · US payrolls, claims, vehicle sales and productivity came in better than expected.

    And the real output gap if anything widened.

    · S&P earnings are coming in at +18% y/y with implied corporate profits at +23 percent q/q a.r.

    Reinforces the notion that it’s a good for stocks, bad for people economy.

    · Mortgage speeds were much faster than expectations suggesting some easing refi pressures.

    And savers holding those securities saw their incomes cut faster than expected.

    · The ECB cut 25bps and indicated a dovish forward looking stance.

    Which reduced euro interest income for the non govt sectors

    · CME Margins were reduced.

    Just means volatility was down some.

    · There was a massive USDJPY intervention which may be a precursor to a Swiss style Japanese policy easing.

    Which, for the US, means reduced costs of imports from Japan, which works against US exports, which should be a good thing for the US as it means for the size govt we have, taxes could be lowered to sustain demand, but becomes a bad thing as our leadership believes the US Federal deficit to be too large and so instead we get higher unemployment.

    · The Swiss have indicated they want an even weaker CHF – possibly EURCHF 1.40.

    When this makes a list of ‘positives’ you know the positives are pretty sorry

    · The Aussies cut rates 25bps

    Cutting net interest income for the economy.