Mosler: Greek Default Not Logical Path Out of Crisis
By Forrest Jones and Kathleen Walter
September 30 — Letting Greece default won’t end Europe’s crisis and won’t allow Germany and other core nations to brush themselves off and move merrily on their way, says Warren Mosler, principal and co-founder of AVM, an international bond firm with 30 years of experience in Europe and author of the 2010 book, “The 7 Deadly Innocent Frauds of Economic Policy.”
In fact, it will do the opposite. It will cost money and rattle key export markets for Germany and other countries targeting European periphery countries.
Greece has run up debts and may default and exit the euro, yet many in wealthier nations such as Germany oppose bailouts for Greece and other debt-ridden Mediterranean nations.
They also have opposed backing euro-wide bonds, which basically shores up the Greek economy via the financial backing of the Greece’s richer northern neighbors.
However, allowing the European Central Bank to play a role in Greece’s economic reform will not put the load on German, French and other taxpayers, Mosler says.
“It’s a question if a bailout now is good for Germany and France but not so good for Greece, because if Greece is allowed to default, then their debt goes away. They are agreeing to wipe out their debt and it reduces their payments,” he said in an exclusive Newsmax.TV interview.
“But if they fund Greece, and don’t allow them to default, then Greece has to continue to make these payments. So the whole dynamic has changed from doing Greece a favor to disciplining Greece by not allowing them to default.”
That makes default, arguably, less imminent.
“I would think the odds are shifting to the endgame where Greece doesn’t default, where at the end of the day Greece is forced though the austerity measures to run a primary balance or primary surplus, the interest payments will largely wind up with up with the European Central Bank, who is buying Greek debt in the marketplace,” Mosler says.
Furthermore, the logic that applies to keeping Greece in the eurozone applies to the other nations such as Italy.
“It used to be if Germany, France and the others bailed out Greece, and then suddenly they have to bail out Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy, they could never have the capacity to do that. It’s now understood that there is no limit, no nominal limit to the check that the European Central Bank can write,” Mosler says.
Plus, Europe can expect no side effects of such Central Bank involvement.
“It will not weaken the euro, it will not cause inflation and it will not increase total spending in the region. In fact it will help reduce total spending in the region because the European Central Bank imposes terms and conditions when it intervenes.”
Should Greece default, however, Europe would feel the pain, but it shouldn’t be too bad in the United States, Mosler says.
Yes, regulators would have to react.
“The FDIC would have to decide how they would want to respond to a drop in equity. Would they want the banks to raise more capital? Would they give them time to do it?”
But they wouldn’t have to react too much.
“They don’t need to shut the banks down, it doesn’t need to be disruptive to the real economy.”
Turning to the United States and President Barack Obama’s economic policies, Mosler says the president is on the right track by running deficits, but adds he’s doing a poor job of explaining the rationale behind his policies.
Or he just doesn’t understand it.
Category Archives: Spain
CH News – 09.13.11
Ok news so far for August, some slowing but no sign of a hard landing yet!
On Tue, Sep 13, 2011 at 8:03 AM, Evelyn Richards wrote:
HIGHLIGHTS
-China’s retail sales up 17% in Aug
-China’s fixed asset investment up 25% in Jan-Aug
-Yuan Forwards Decline Most in a Month on Greece Debt Concern
-China Aims to Play Role in Stabilizing Europe, Researcher Says
-China August Fiscal Revenue Rises 34.3% on Year, Ministry Says
-China Called on as Emergency Lender as Italy Faces Crisis
-China unlikely to loosen monetary policy
China’s retail sales up 17% in Aug
Sep. 13, 2011 (China Knowledge) – China’s retail sales reached RMB 1.47 trillion
in August this year, up 17% year-on-year, said the National Bureau of
Statistics.Total retail sales in urban areas rose 17.1% year-on-year to RMB 1.28 trillion
last month, while retail sales in rural areas rose 16.4% to RMB 192.2 billion in
the same period.Retail sales in the catering industry also grew and increased to 16.7%
year-on-year to RMB 171.7 billion in August, while retail sales of consumer
goods rose 17% to RMB 1.3 trillion.Last month, the retails sales of automobiles continued to top the country’s
retails sales list, reaching RMB 174.6 billion, up 12.4% year-on-year, while
retail sales of oil and related products came in second, hitting RMB 126.7
billion, with a growth of 38.4%.In the first eight months of this year, the country’s retail sales totaled RMB
11.49 trillion, 16.9% more than in the corresponding period of last year.
Retails sales of automobiles grew 14.9% to RMB 1.29 trillion during the period,
and retail sales of oil and related products amounted to RMB 928.2 billion,
39.5%.
China’s fixed asset investment up 25% in Jan-Aug
Sep. 13, 2011 (China Knowledge) – China’s total fixed asset investment surged
25% year on year to RMB 18.06 trillion in the first eight months of this year,
according to statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics.The growth rate was 0.4 percentage points lower than that in the first seven
months.Last month, the country’s fixed asset investment climbed 1.16% from July.
Fixed asset investment in primary industry saw a 23% increase, hitting RMB 417.6
billion, while investment in secondary and investment in tertiary industry grew
27% and 23.6% year on year to RMB 7.92 trillion and RMB 9.73 trillion,
respectively, according to the latest statistics.The country’s investment in the industrial sector jumped 26.6% year-on-year to
RMB 7.71 trillion, including RMB 638.9 billion in the mining sector and RMB 6.24
trillion in the manufacturing, up 15.9% and 32.2% year on year, respectively.
The power, gas and water producing and supplying industry saw its fixed-asset
investment climb 1.9% year on year to RMB 833.5 billion in the first eight
months.In the first eight months, investment in real estate development surged up 33.2%
year on year to RMB 3.78 trillion.Meanwhile, fixed asset investment in China’s eastern, central and western areas
booked notable year-on year increases of 22.6%, 30.1% and 29.4%, respectively.
Yuan Forwards Decline Most in a Month on Greece Debt Concern
Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) — China’s yuan forwards dropped the
most in a month amid speculation Greece is nearing default,
which may prompt policy makers to slow the currency’s
appreciation.
The People’s Bank of China set the daily reference rate
0.09 percent lower today, the most in almost four weeks, as
Asian currencies weakened. The chance of a default by Greece in
the next five years has soared to 98 percent as Prime Minister
George Papandreou fails to reassure investors that his country
can survive the euro-region crisis, credit-default swaps showed.
“What you may see actually is a weaker pace of
appreciation,” said Leong Sook Mei, regional head of global
currency research at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in
Singapore. “There was lots of risk aversion with regards to the
Greece issue. The overall trend of appreciation won’t stop as
yet until we see decisive signs of Chinese growth coming off and
inflation easing.”
Twelve-month non-deliverable forwards slid 0.33 percent to
6.3305 per dollar as of 4:58 p.m. in Hong Kong, according to
data compiled by Bloomberg. The premium to the onshore spot rate
was 1.1 percent, compared with 1.2 percent yesterday.
The yuan dropped 0.17 percent to 6.3991 per dollar in
Shanghai, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System.
In Hong Kong’s offshore market, the yuan declined 0.02 percent
to 6.3855.
A central bank statement yesterday that inflation is still
too high is “hawkish,” Tim Condon, head of Asia research at
ING Groep NV, said in an e-mailed note today.
Policy makers will want to see a second consecutive month
of lower headline inflation before declaring “victory,” Condon
wrote. He reiterated the bank’s call for one more 25-basis point
increase in benchmark interest rates by the end of the year.
China’s inflation eased in August, rising 6.2 percent from
a year earlier, compared with 6.5 percent in July, which was the
fastest since June 2008.
China Aims to Play Role in Stabilizing Europe, Researcher Says
Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) — China is playing its role as a
responsible major world economy and is trying to help stabilize
global confidence by supporting European governments, Zhang
Yansheng, a researcher affiliated with the nation’s top economic
planning agency, said today.
Chinese policy makers are thinking in a “global context”
and about the need to prevent a “domino effect” in the debt
crisis, Zhang said in Beijing today when asked to comment on
reports that China is in talks to make investments in Italy that
may include government bonds. If Italy “falls” it may drag
down Europe, the world and China’s economy, he said.
There is a limit to what China can do to help, Zhang said.
Zhang, who is a researcher at the Institute of Foreign
Economic Research affiliated to the National Development and
Reform Commission, said he was giving his own views on the
matter.
China August Fiscal Revenue Rises 34.3% on Year, Ministry Says
Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) — China’s August fiscal revenue rose
34.3 percent from a year earlier to 754.6 billion yuan and
fiscal expenditure rose 25.9 percent to 807.7 billion yuan,
according to a statement on the Ministry of Finance’s website
today.
Fiscal revenue for the first eight months this year rose
30.9 percent to 7.4 trillion yuan, the statement said.
China Called on as Emergency Lender as Italy Faces Crisis
Sept. 13 (Bloomberg Businessweek) — China’s status as the fastest- growing major economy and holder of the largest foreign-exchange reserves lured another bailout candidate as Italy struggles to avoid a collapse in investor confidence.Italian officials held talks in the past few weeks with Chinese counterparts about potential investments in the country, an Italian government official said yesterday, adding that bonds weren’t the focus. Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti met with Chinese officials in Rome earlier this month, his spokesman Filippo Pepe said by phone today, declining to say exactly when the talks took place or what was discussed.
Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu, asked about buying Italian assets, said Europe is one of China’s main investment destinations, without specifically mentioning Italy.
Italy joins Spain, Greece, Portugal and investment bank Morgan Stanley among distressed borrowers that turned to China since the 2007 collapse in U.S. mortgage securities set off a crisis that widened to engulf euro-region sovereign debtors. Stocks rose on the potential Chinese investment in Italy even as previous commitments failed to have a lasting impact.
“It’s a clear pattern of China’s intention to help stabilize the euro area,” said Nicholas Zhu, head of macro- commodity research for Asia at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group in Shanghai and a former World Bank economist. “The benefit to China is that it will help in the perception of host countries if China is viewed as a responsible stakeholder in the global community.”
Bond Auction
Italy today is auctioning as much as 7 billion euros ($10 billion) of bonds to help pay for 14.5 billion euros of bonds maturing on Sept. 15. The euro region’s third-largest economy sold 11.5 billion euros of bills yesterday and priced its one- year notes to yield 4.153 percent, up from 2.959 percent at the previous auction last month.The yield on Italy’s 10-year bond rose to 5.69 percent as of 10:01 a.m. in Rome, pushing the spread with the equivalent German securities up 13 basis points to 396 basis points. The MSCI Asia Pacific index of stocks advanced 0.3 percent as of 4:50 p.m. in Tokyo after the Standard & Poor’s 500 index gained 0.7 percent overnight.
Chinese Image
For China, any purchases of European debt may allow the world’s largest exporter to be seen as helpful as it rebuffs calls to allow its exchange rate to appreciate at a faster pace. The world’s second largest economy has amassed record currency reserves of $3.2 trillion by selling yuan to limit gains.Chinese policy makers are thinking in a “global context” and about the need to prevent a “domino effect” in the European debt crisis, Zhang Yansheng, a researcher affiliated with the nation’s top economic planning agency, said today.
China’s central bank referred questions to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, which didn’t respond to a request for comment. China Investment Corp., the nation’s sovereign-wealth fund, also didn’t respond.
Italy’s bond-yields rose to a euro-era record last month as the region’s sovereign debt crisis spread from Greece, the first to receive a European Union-led bailout. Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s government rushed a 54 billion-euro austerity package to convince the European Central Bank to buy its debt.
Redemptions
Even so, the size of Italy’s debt — at 1.9 trillion euros more than Spain, Greece, Ireland and Portugal combined — leaves it vulnerable to any rise in borrowing costs as it refinances maturing securities. The country still needs to sell about 70 billion euros of debt this year to cover its deficit and finance redemptions.“We have heard this story before with regard to the likes of Spanish and Portuguese bonds, and in the end it was ECB buying and EU bailouts that seemed to have taken place rather than anything with a Chinese influence,” Gary Jenkins, a strategist at Evolution Securities in London, wrote in a research note.
Any Chinese purchases of euro-region debt to date haven’t produced a lasting cut in yield premiums for Greece, Portugal or Spain.
The extra yield investors demand to buy Greek 10-year debt over German bunds is about 23 percentage points, up from 14 percentage points three months ago. The equivalent spread for Portugal over Germany is 9.5 percentage points, up from 7.7 points over that period. Spain’s gap rose to 3.6 points from 2.5 points.
Too Big
“The issue with Europe is bigger than China alone can help with,” said Ju Wang, a fixed-income strategist at Barclays Capital in Singapore, adding that Italy’s debt load alone is a sum exceeding half the Chinese foreign-exchange reserves. “China probably will continue to help to shore up the euro, but its involvement in direct purchases of troubled Europe debt is unlikely to be too aggressive.”If Italy “falls” it may drag down Europe, the world and China’s economy, said Zhang, a researcher at the Institute of Foreign Economic Research affiliated to the National Development and Reform Commission.
Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi said today that European policy makers should decide themselves whether they need fiscal assistance from Japan. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner will travel to Poland on Sept. 16 to participate in a meeting of European government finance officials trying to contain the region’s debt crisis.
‘Helping Hand’
Premier Wen Jiabao said in June that China can offer “a helping hand” to Europe by buying a limited volume of sovereign bonds. The Asian nation pledged that month to buy Hungarian government bonds and agreed to extend a 1 billion euro loan for the financing of development projects in the European country that needed an International Monetary Fund-led bailout in 2008.Spain’s prime minister secured a Chinese pledge to invest in his nation’s faltering savings banks and in government debt on an April visit to Beijing.
In October, Wen said China will buy Greek bonds to support Greece’s shipping industry, while Chinese state-run banks agreed to $267.8 million in loans to three Greek shippers. President Hu Jintao visited Portugal in November and said China is “available to support, through concrete measures, Portuguese efforts to face the impacts caused by the international financial crisis.”
Diversification
Any Chinese purchases of euro-denominated debt may help it diversify its reserves away from dollars. The biggest foreign owner of U.S. government debt has doubled its holdings of Treasuries in the three years through June to about $1.17 trillion.China is playing a “white knight” role in assisting Europe and buying itself goodwill that will enable it to purchase more sensitive European assets such as technology companies, according to Stamford, Connecticut-based Faros Trading in a June report. The European Union still has an arms embargo on China, imposed after the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989.
Some of China’s investments have returned losses. China Investment Corp. paid $3 billion for a 9.4 percent stake in private equity firm Blackstone in 2007 at a 4.5 percent discount to its initial public offering price of $31. The stock traded at $12.31 yesterday, which translates to a loss of more than $1.7 billion loss for China, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
CIC, as the wealth fund is known, widened its investment horizon to 10 years from five years, the company said in July.
“They are trying to be helpful by diversifying a little within the euro zone community,” Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate in economics, said while attending a conference in Beijing today. “With relatively high yields, if there is a credible plan in Italy — Italy has very low private debt, its public debt is relatively stable if they adopt sensible policies — so could be quite a good investment as well.”
China unlikely to loosen monetary policy
Sept 13 (The Australian) – CHINA’s central bank says stabilising prices remains its priority, reinforcing signs that Beijing is unlikely to loosen the reins on the world’s No. 2 economy any time soon despite mounting global uncertainties.In a statement last night, the People’s Bank of China also gave fresh acknowledgment that its traditional measuring tools have failed to keep up with recent changes in the Chinese financial system. The bank said it is considering issuing an adjusted version of its benchmark measure of the supply of money in the economy to help plug the resulting gaps.
The PBOC’s statement came after economic data over the previous three days showing growth and inflation both easing somewhat, but remaining strong.
The data reinforced a growing consensus among economists that Beijing has likely pressed pause on any big monetary policy moves — after a series of rate increases over the last year — as it balances concerns about the weakness in advanced economies like Europe and the US against ongoing wariness over consumer prices at home.
“There is some control over the causes of rising prices, but they haven’t been eliminated,” the PBOC said last night. “Inflation remains high and stabilising prices remains the top macro-control policy.” The bank said China needs to continue its “prudent” monetary policy and maintain steady and appropriate credit growth.
Data issued by the PBOC on Sunday showed that money-supply growth slowed further last month, which the central bank said was in line with its “prudent” monetary policy. China’s broadest measure of money supply, M2, was up 13.5 per cent at the end of August from a year earlier, slower than the 14.7 per cent rise at the end of July, and below economists’ expectations of 14.5 per cent.
But the PBOC’s statement last night also said it is researching the addition of an “M2-Plus” measure of money supply, because the current M2 measure — which gauges bank deposits and cash in circulation — doesn’t capture funds in wealth management products, which have expanded dramatically this year. That means the M2 readings have understated the total growth in money, which is a factor in inflation.
“The official M2 growth number has become a little less reliable than it once was,” said Standard Chartered economists Li Wei and Stephen Green in a research note last week.
The PBOC noted that growth in lending hasn’t been slow so far this year, pointing out that bank lending in August was up about 10 billion yuan ($1.5bn) from the same month last year, when monetary policy was still loose.
“Overall liquidity conditions are appropriate and banks’ provision levels are normal,” the PBOC said. China’s financial institutions issued 548.5bn yuan of new yuan loans in August, up from 493bn yuan in July and above economists’ expectations of 500bn yuan.
China’s consumer price index rose 6.2 per cent in August from a year earlier, slowing from July’s 6.5 per cent increase, which was the fastest rise in more than three years.
EU Daily | Eurozone PMI at two-year low as new orders fall in all countries
Weakness and continued austerity. My guess is it will take serious blood in the streets before policy changes
IMF and eurozone clash over estimates
(FT) International Monetary Fund work, contained in a draft version of its Global Financial Stability Report, uses credit default swap prices to estimate the market value of government bonds of the three eurozone countries receiving IMF bail-outs – Ireland, Greece and Portugal – together with those of Italy, Spain and Belgium. Although the IMF analysis may be revised, two officials said one estimate showed that marking sovereign bonds to market would reduce European banks’ tangible common equity by about €200bn ($287bn), a drop of 10-12 per cent. The impact could be increased substantially, perhaps doubled, by the knock-on effects of European banks holding assets in other banks. The ECB and eurozone governments have rejected such estimates.
ECB Lends Euro-Area Banks 49.4 Billion Euros for Three Months(Bloomberg) The European Central Bank said it will lend euro-area banks 49.4 billion euros ($71.3 billion) in three-month cash. The ECB said 128 banks bid for the funds, which will be lent at the average of the benchmark rate over the period of the loan. The key rate is currently at 1.5 percent. Banks must repay 48.1 billion euros in previous three-month loans tomorrow. The ECB re-introduced an unlimited six-month loan this month and extended full allotment in its shorter-term operations through the end of the year as tensions on European money markets grew. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet on Aug. 27 rejected the suggestion that there could be a liquidity crisis in Europe, citing the central bank’s non-standard measures.
Eurozone PMI at two-year low as new orders fall in all countries(Markit) Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.4 in July to 49.0 in August, its lowest level since August 2009 and below the earlier flash estimate of 49.7. National PMIs held just above the 50.0 no-change mark in Germany, the Netherlands and Austria, but signalled contractions in Ireland, France, Italy, Spain and Greece. Only the Irish PMI rose compared to July, but still remained in contraction territory. The weakness highlighted by the headline PMI reflected falling volumes of both output and new business in August. The Eurozone new orders-to-finished goods inventory ratio, which tends to lead the trend in production, fell to its lowest for almost two-and-a-half years.
European Central Bank Said To Purchase Italian Government BondsSept. 1 (Bloomberg) — The European Central Bank is buying Italian securities, according to two people with knowledge of the transactions. They declined to be identified because the transactions are confidential.
A spokesman for the ECB declined to comment.
Germans, Dutch, Finns to Meet on Crisis Amid Collateral SpatSept. 1 (Bloomberg) — The German, Dutch and Finnish finance ministers will meet on Sept. 6 in Berlin to discuss the euro-area debt crisis as a Finnish demand for collateral threatens to delay a second Greek bailout.
“We will discuss how to go forward with this crisis and the future,” Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager told reporters in The Hague today. “It’s about fighting this fire, but more importantly, how do we prevent such a fire.”
Finland’s demand for collateral from Greece as a condition for contributing to a second rescue package has triggered calls for similar treatment from countries including Austria and the Netherlands. De Jager said an agreement on collateral shouldn’t take long to reach.
“I see room for a solution; there are proposals on the table to discuss,” De Jager said. “I think it will be possible to provide equal treatment for creditors without the disadvantage of the proposed deal between Finland and Greece, which is unthinkable because it uses extra money from the EFSF to provide collateral to Finland.”
The 440 billion-euro ($628 billion) European Financial Stability Facility is the euro region’s rescue fund.
Weidmann Says ECB Must Scale Back Crisis Measures to Reduce RiskSept. 1 (Bloomberg) — European Central Bank council member Jens Weidmann said the bank must scale back the additional risks it has shouldered to help counter the region’s debt crisis.
Measures taken by the ECB have “strained the existing framework of the currency union and blurred the boundaries between the responsibilities of monetary policy on one side and fiscal policy on the other,” Weidmann, who heads Germany’s Bundesbank, said at an event in Hanover today. Over time this can damage confidence in the central bank, he said. “It is therefore valid to scale back the extra risks monetary policy has taken on.”
The ECB is lending euro-area banks as much money as they need at its benchmark rate and has also re-started its bond purchase program — a step Weidmann opposed — in an attempt to stem the spreading debt crisis. While European leaders on July 21 re-tooled their 440-billion-euro ($629 billion) rescue fund, allowing it to buy government debt on the secondary market, national parliaments still need to ratify the changes.
“Decisions on taking further risks should be made by governments and parliaments, as only they are democratically legitimized,” Weidmann said.
He said one option for a long-term solution to Europe’s debt crisis could be “a real fiscal union.”
“Should one be unwilling or unable to take this path, then the existing no-bailout clause in the treaties, and the accompanying disciplining of fiscal policy, should be strengthened instead of being completely gutted,” he said.
Weidmann said his comments don’t relate to current economic developments or ECB policy, citing the one-week blackout prior to a rate decision. ECB officials will convene on Sept. 8 in Frankfurt.
German manufacturing PMI lowest since September 2009(Markit) At 50.9, down from 52.0 in July, the final seasonally adjusted Markit/BME Germany PMI was around one index point lower than the ‘flash’ figure of 52.0. Growth of German manufacturing output eased fractionally since the previous month and was the slowest since July 2009. Latest data pointed to a fall in intakes of new work for the second month running and the rate of contraction was the fastest since June 2009. The downturn in sales to export markets was highlighted by a further reduction in new business from abroad in August, with the rate of contraction also the sharpest for over two years. Meanwhile, stocks of finished goods at manufacturing firms accumulated at the steepest pace since the survey began in April 1996.
German Trade, Consumption Damped Second-Quarter GDP Growth(Bloomberg) Private consumption contracted 0.7 percent in the second quarter. GDP increased 0.1 percent from the first quarter, when it gained 1.3 percent, the office said, confirming its initial Aug. 16 estimate. Exports rose 2.3 percent from the first quarter, when they gained 2.1 percent. Imports surged 3.2 percent in the second quarter after rising 1.7 percent in the first. That resulted in net trade reducing GDP growth by 0.3 percentage point. Companies stocked up inventories, which contributed 0.7 percentage point to GDP growth. Gross investment also added 0.7 percentage point to growth. Private consumption subtracted 0.4 percentage point and a 0.9 percent decline in construction spending cut 0.1 percentage point off GDP.
Carrefour posts net loss in 1st half(AP) Europe’s largest retailer Carrefour SA posted an unexpected net loss in the first half and abandoned its growth target for the year amid the economic slowdown. The French retailer reported a net loss of euro249 million ($359 million) in the first six months of the year, compared with a profit of euro97 million a year earlier. Carrefour said it expects its operating profit to decline this year, reversing a target the retailer set in March when it said an ongoing and expensive “transformation plan” would raise profits this year. As it did last year, Carrefour booked what it calls “significant one-off charges” again in the first half. They amounted to euro884 million in the first half, over half of which went to writing down the value of Carrefour’s Italian assets.
Greece set to miss deficit target(AP) Greece is likely to miss its budget targets in 2011 even if it fully implements painful reforms a parliamentary panel of financial experts said. “The increase in the primary deficit in combination with a further drop in economic activity strengthens significantly the dynamics of debt, offsetting the benefits from the decisions of the summit of July 21, and distancing the possibility of stabilization of the debt to GDP in 2012,” the panel, known as the State Budget Office, wrote in a report. Citing government figures, it said the 2011 January-July deficit stands at euro15.59 billion ($22.53 billion) with a primary deficit of 2.4 percent of gross domestic product, as opposed to a euro12.45 billion ($17.99 billion) shortfall and 1.5 percent primary deficit in that period last year.
Italy Drops Pension Changes, Will Announce Budget Amendments(Bloomberg) The Italian government has dropped proposed changes to pension rules agreed to this week from a 45.5 billion-euro ($65.5 billion) austerity plan being discussed in parliament that aims to balance the budget by 2013. Giorgia Meloni, minister for youth and sport policy, told reporters that the government decided to withdraw the proposal agreed to by Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti two days ago. On Aug. 29, Berlusconi’s office announced that the government had dropped a planned bonus tax on Italians earning more than 90,000 euros a year and reduced cuts in transfers to regional and local authorities. It did not provide details of how the lost deficit reduction of 4.5 billion euros from those changes would be compensated.
Crisis exposes weakness of Italian coalition(FT) Giulio Tremonti, finance minister, was said to be in “damage limitation” mode on Wednesday, seeking to assure Italy’s partners that a budget could still get through parliament’s twin chambers by the end of next week, despite prime minister Silvio Berlusconi’s decision to jettison some key proposals, including a wealth tax. Three weeks after the centre-right cabinet agreed an austerity package – with €45.5bn ($65.4bn) of savings intended to balance the budget by 2013 – the government on Wednesday missed its self-imposed deadline to present legislation to the senate, the first step towards parliamentary approval. Insiders admit, however, that the budget could amount to a stopgap measure, the second since July, and might need to be reinforced at a later date.
Spanish PM: deficit cap amendment essential(AP) “It is true that it is a reform done in a very short time span, because we need it,” Prime minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said. The amendment of the 1978 constitution enshrines the principle of budgetary discipline into Spain’s constitution, but does not specify numbers. These will come in a separate law that is to be passed by June 2012. The Socialists and conservatives have agreed the law will stipulate that Spain’s deficit cannot exceed 0.4 percent of GDP, but that threshold will not take effect until 2020. Their support is enough for the bill to pass when it is voted on Friday in the lower house of Parliament and presumably next week in the Senate. Time is pressing because the legislature dissolves Sept. 27 in order to get ready for general elections Nov. 20.
Spain Expects ‘Chain’ of Market Turbulence, Valenciano Says(Bloomberg) “We’re probably going to get back into a chain of financial turbulence in September and October,” Elena Valenciano, Socialist party campaign chief, said in an interview. Valenciano said the constitutional amendment is necessary as Spain must avoid following Greece, Ireland and Portugal into seeking a European bailout. “We have to say this because sometimes talking of a rescue seems almost something positive: any kind of intervention in Spain would be a great misfortune for the country,” she said. Valenciano said authorities “didn’t expect August to be as bad as it was” and that the gap may widen again in the next two months, “not so much because of our own debt, but because of Italy’s debt.”
Portugal Raises Taxes to Meet Deficit Targets in Rescue Plan(Bloomberg) Portugal will raise capital gains tax and increase levies on corporate profit and high earners to reach the deficit-reduction goals in its 78 billion-euro ($112 billion) bailout. The government will impose a tax surcharge of 3 percent on companies with income above 1.5 million euros, add a bonus tax of 2.5 percent on the highest earners and raise the levy on capital gains by 1 percentage point to 21 percent, Finance Minister Vitor Gaspar said. The moves will help trim the budget deficit from 5.9 percent of gross domestic product this year to the European Union ceiling of 3 percent in 2013, he said. The shortfall will narrow to 0.5 percent in 2015. The government will reduce its deficit even as the economy contracts 2.2 percent this year and 1.8 percent next year, before expanding 1.2 percent in 2013, he said.
Ireland’s unemployment rate rises to 14.4 percent(AP) Ireland’s unemployment rate has risen to 14.4 percent. Ireland has been trying to escape its 3-year recession through export growth led by its multinational companies. But the domestic economy remains dormant because of weak consumer demand, high household debts and a collapsed real-estate market. The Central Statistics Agency said Wednesday that unemployment rose from July’s rate of 14.3 percent, the fourth straight monthly increase. A record-high 470,000 people in Ireland, a country of 4.5 million, are claiming welfare payments for joblessness. About 17 percent are foreigners, chiefly Eastern Europeans who immigrated during the final years of Ireland’s 1994-2007 Celtic Tiger boom.
MMT history and overview
Excellent post from Johnsville:
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) in a Nutshell
A rampaging mutant macroeconomic theory called Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT for short, is kicking keisters and smacking down conventional wisdom in economic circles these days. This is because an energized group of MMT economists, bloggers, and their loyal foot soldiers, lead by economists Warren Mosler, Bill Michell, and L. Randall Wray are swarming on the internet. New MMT disciples are hatching out everywhere. They are like a school of fresh-faced paramedics surrounding a gasping heart attack victim. They seek to present their economic worldview as the definitive first aid for understanding and dealing with the critical issues of growth, unemployment, inflation, budget deficits, and national debt.
MMT is a reformulated blend of some older macroeconomic theories called Chartalism and Functional finance. But, it also adds a fresh dose of monetary accounting for intellectual muscle mass. Chartalism is a school of economic thought that was developed between 1901 and 1905 by German economist Georg F. Knapp with important contributions (1913-1914) from Alfred Mitchell-Innes. Functional finance is an extension of Chartalism, which was developed by economist Abba Lerner in the 1940’s.
However, Chartalism and Functional finance did not directly spawn this new mutant monetary theory. Rather, Modern Monetary Theory had a hot, steamy, Rummy induced, immaculate conception as its creator, Warren Mosler, has stated:
The origin of MMT is ‘Soft Currency Economics‘ [1993] at www.moslereconomics.com which I wrote after spending an hour in the steam room with Don Rumsfeld at the Racquet Club in Chicago, who sent me to Art Laffer, who assigned Mark McNary to work with me to write it. The story is in ‘The 7 Deadly Innocent Frauds of Economic Policy’ [pg 98].
I had never read or even heard of Lerner, Knapp, Inness, Chartalism, and only knew Keynes by reading his quotes published by others. I ‘created’ what became know as ‘MMT’ entirely independently of prior economic thought. It came from my direct experience in actual monetary operations, much of which is also described in the book.
The main takeaways are simply that with the $US and our current monetary arrangements, federal taxes function to regulate demand, and federal borrowing functions to support interest rates, with neither functioning to raise revenue per se. In other words, operationally, federal spending is not revenue constrained. All constraints are necessarily self imposed and political. And everyone in Fed operations knows it.
The name Modern Monetary Theory was reportedly coined (pun unintended) by Australian economist Bill Mitchell. Mitchell has an MMT blog that gives tough weekly tests in order to make sure that the faithful are paying attention and learning their MMT ABC’s. MMT is not easy to fully comprehend unless you spend some time studying it.
MMT is a broad combination of fiscal, monetary and accounting principles that describe an economy with a floating rate fiat currency administered by a sovereign government. The foundation of MMT is its recognition of the importance of the government’s power to tax, thereby creating a demand for its money, and its monopoly power to print money. MMT’s full potential and its massive monetary fire power were not locked and loaded until President Nixon took the U.S. off the gold standard on August 15, 1971.
There is really not that much “theory” in Modern Monetary Theory. MMT is more concerned with explaining the operational realities of modern fiat money. It is the financial X’s and O’s, the ledger or playbook, of how a sovereign government’s fiscal policies and financial relationships drive an economy. It clarifies the options and outcomes that policy makers face when they are running a tax-driven money monopoly. Proponents of MMT say that its greatest strength is that it is apolitical.
The lifeblood of MMT doctrine is a government’s fiscal policy (taxing and spending). Taxes are only needed to regulate consumer demand and control inflation, not for revenue. A sovereign government that issues its own floating rate fiat currency is not revenue constrained. In other words, taxes are not needed to fund the government. This point is graphically described by Warren Mosler as follows:
what happens if you were to go to your local IRS office to pay [your taxes] with actual cash? First, you would hand over your pile of currency to the person on duty as payment. Next, he’d count it, give you a receipt and, hopefully, a thank you for helping to pay for social security, interest on the national debt, and the Iraq war. Then, after you, the tax payer, left the room he’d take that hard-earned cash you just forked over and throw it in a shredder.
Yes, it gets thrown it away [sic]. Destroyed!
— The 7 Deadly Frauds of Economic Policy, page 14, Warren Mosler
Gadzooks!
The delinking of tax revenue from the budget is a critical element that allows MMT to go off the “balanced budget” reservation. In a fiat money world, a sovereign government’s budget should never be confused with a household budget, or a state budget. Households and U.S. states must live within their means and their budgets must ultimately be balanced. A sovereign government with its own fiat money can never go broke. There is no solvency risk and the United States, for example, will never run out of money. The monopoly power to print money makes all the difference, as long as it is used wisely.
MMT also asserts that the federal government should net spend, again usually in deficit, to the point where it meets the aggregate savings desire of its population. This is because government budget deficits add to savings. This is a straightforward accounting identity in MMT, not a theory. Warren Mosler put it this way:
So here’s how it really works, and it could not be simpler: Any $U.S. government deficit exactly EQUALS the total net increase in the holdings ($U.S. financial assets) of the rest of us – businesses and households, residents and non-residents – what is called the “non-government” sector. In other words, government deficits equal increased “monetary savings” for the rest of us, to the penny. Simply put, government deficits ADD to our savings (to the penny).
— The 7 Deadly Frauds of Economic Policy, page 42, Warren Mosler
Therefore, Treasury bonds, bills and notes are not needed to support fiscal policy (pay for government). The U.S. government bond market is just a relic of the pre-1971 gold standard days. Treasury securities are primarily used by the Fed to regulate interest rates. Mosler simply calls U.S. Treasury securities a “savings account” at the Federal Reserve.
In the U.S., MMTers see the contentious issue of a mounting national debt and continuing budget deficits as a pseudo-problem, or an “accounting mirage.” The quaint notion of the need for a balanced budget is another ancient relic from the old gold standard days, when the supply of money was actually limited. In fact, under MMT, running a federal budget surplus is usually a bad thing and will often lead to a recession.
Under MMT the real problems for a government to address are ensuring growth, reducing unemployment, and controlling inflation. Bill Mitchell noted that, “Full employment and price stability is at the heart of MMT.” A Job Guarantee (JG) model, which is central to MMT, is a key policy tool to help control both inflation and unemployment. Therefore, given the right level of government spending and taxes, combined with a Job Guarantee program; MMTers state emphatically that a nation can achieve full employment along with price stability.
As some background to understand Modern Monetary Theory it is helpful to know a little about its predecessors: Chartalism and Functional Finance.
German economist and statistician Georg Friedrich Knapp published The State Theory of Money in 1905. It was translated into English in 1924. He proposed that we think of money as tokens of the state, and wrote:
Money is a creature of law. A theory of money must therefore deal with legal history… Perhaps the Latin word “Charta” can bear the sense of ticket or token, and we can form a new but intelligible adjective — “Chartal.” Our means of payment have this token, or Chartal form. Among civilized peoples in our day, payments can only be made with pay-tickets or Chartal pieces.
Alfred Mitchell-Innes only published two articles in the The Banking Law Journal. However, MMT economist L. Randall Wray called them the “best pair of articles on the nature of money written in the twentieth century”. The first, What is Money?, was published in May 1913, and the follow-up, Credit Theory of Money, in December 1914. Mitchell-Innes was published eight years after Knapp’s book, but there is no indication that he was familiar with the German’s work. In the 1913 article Mitchell-Innes wrote:
One of the popular fallacies in connection with commerce is that in modern days a money-saving device has been introduced called credit and that, before this device was known, all, purchases were paid for in cash, in other words in coins. A careful investigation shows that the precise reverse is true…
Credit is the purchasing power so often mentioned in economic works as being one of the principal attributes of money, and, as I shall try to show, credit and credit alone is money. Credit and not gold or silver is the one property which all men seek, the acquisition of which is the aim and object of all commerce…
There is no question but that credit is far older than cash.
L. Randall Wray, in his 1998 book, Understanding Modern Money,was the first to link the state money approach of Knapp with the credit money approach of Mitchell-Innes. Modern money is a state token that represents a debt or IOU. The book is an introduction to MMT.
L. Randal Wray is a Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri-Kansas City, Research Director with the Center for Full Employment and Price Stability and Senior Research Scholar at The Levy Economics Institute. These institutions are hotbeds of MMT research. Wray also writes for the MMT blog, New Economic Perspectives.
Finally, to finish the historical tour, here is how Abba Lerner’s Functional finance is described by Professor Wray:
Functional Finance rejects completely the traditional doctrines of ‘sound finance’ and the principle of trying to balance the budget over a solar year or any other arbitrary period. In their place it prescribes: first, the adjustment of total spending (by everybody in the economy, including the government) in order to eliminate both unemployment and inflation, using government spending when total spending is too low and taxation when total spending is too high.
Given its mixed history it is not surprising that MMT has been given different labels. Some economists refer to MMT as a “post-Keynesian” economic theory. L. Randall Wray has used the term “neo-Chartalist”. Warren Mosler stated, “MMT might be more accurately called pre Keynesian.” Given that Georg Knapp’s work was cited by John Maynard Keynes, the use of “pre-Keynesian” does seem more appropriate than “post-Keynesian”.
But under any category, MMT has been considered fringe or heterodox economics by most mainstream economists. It therefore has been relegated to the equivalent of the economic minor leagues, somewhere below triple-A level. However, that perception is changing.
MMT is slowly seeping into the public policy debate. These days Warren Mosler and others with an MMT viewpoint are frequently being interviewed on business news channels. MMT articles are being published. Recently, Steve Liesman, CNBC’s senior economics reporter, used a Warren Mosler quote to make a point. Liesman said: “As Warren Mosler has said: ‘Because we think we may be the next Greece, we are turning ourselves into the next Japan’.”
MMT is not easy to for many people, including trained economists, to understand. This is probably because of its heavy reliance on accounting principles (debts and credits). Some critics consider MMT nothing more than a twisted Ponzi scheme that is simply “printing prosperity.” Calling MMT a “printing prosperity” scheme, by the way, is the quickest way to send MMTers into spasms of outrage. MMT does not “print prosperty” according to its proponents. The MMT counter argument is:
it [is] a perverse injustice that, in online discussions, MMT sympathizers are frequently reproached for imagining that “we can print prosperity” when in fact it is us who constantly stress as a fundamental point that the only true constraints are resource based, not financial or monetary in nature. We are the ones insisting that if we have the resources, we can put them to use. It is the neoclassical orthodoxy and others who try to make out that we can’t use resources, even if they are available, because of some magical, mysterious monetary or financial constraint. Just who is it that believes in magic here?
Emotions run hot in the current economic environment, especially on the internet. In some cases the energetic online promoting of MMT has turned into passive aggressive hectoring, hazing, name calling, badgering, and belittling. So be warned, if you write some economic analysis online that disagrees with MMT doctrine you might find yourself attacked and stung by a swarm of MMTers. If you are an economic “expert” and you do not understand monetary basics you may also get mounted on an MMT wall of shame.
A heavyweight Keynesian economist, like Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman, has felt the sting of MMT. But the quantity and quality of his criticism of MMT, so far, has been featherweight. He could not land a solid glove on the contender, Kid MMT. Krugman only proved that he does not understand MMT, so his criticism was weak (see MMT comments) and his follow-up even weaker. MMT economist James Galbraith did a succinct breakdown of Krugman’s major errors.
Another school of economics feeling the heat from MMT are the Austrians. Austrian economist Robert Murphy recently wrote an article critical of MMT, calling it an “Upside-Down World“. MMTers lined up to disassemble and refute Murphy’s essay. Cullen Roach at the Pragmatic Capitalist blog shot back this broadside::
we now live in a purely fiat world and not the gold standard model in which Mises and many of the great Austrian economists generated their finest work. Therein lies the weakness of the Austrian model. It is based on a monetary system that is no longer applicable to modern fiat monetary systems such as the one that the USA exists in.
Does MMT really offer a path to prosperty? Or did the ancient Roman, Marcus Cicero (106 BC – 43 BC), have it right when he said: “Endless money forms the sinews of war.”? The debate will only intensify. If you value those green, money-thing, government IOU tokens in your wallet then it pays to learn what all the commotion is about.
Because of MMT’s growing popularity it might be helpful to present a quick start guide so beginners can get up to speed and understand some of its fundamental elements. As a starting point here are some basics of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) compared to some other principles of money and economics that might be considered conventional wisdom or old school wisdom.
1. What is money?
Modern Monetary Theory: Money is a debt or IOU of the state
[The] history of money makes several important points. First, the monetary system did not start with some commodities used as media of exchange, evolving progressively toward precious metals, coins, paper money, and finally credits on books and computers. Credit came first and coins, late comers in the list of monetary instruments, are never pure assets but are always debt instruments — IOUs that happen to be stamped on metal…
Monetary instruments are never commodities, rather they are always debts, IOUs, denominated in the socially recognized unit of account. Some of these monetary instruments circulate as “money things” among third parties, but even “money things” are always debts — whether they happen to take a physical form such as a gold coin or green paper note.
— Money: An Alternate Story by Eric Tymoigne and L. Randall Wray“money is a creature of law”, and, because the state is “guardian of the law”, money is a creature of the state. As Keynes stated:
“the Age of Chartalist or State Money was reached when the State claimed the right to declare what thing should answer as money to the current money-of-account… (Keynes 1930)…
— Chartalism, Stage of Banking, and Liquidity Preference by Eric Tymoigne
John Maynard Keynes in his 1930, Treatise on Money, also stated: “Today all civilized money is, beyond the possibility of dispute, chartalist.”
Old School Wisdom:
Money is essentially a device for carrying on business transactions, a mere satellite of commodities, a servant of the processes in the world of goods.
— Joseph Schumpeter, Schumpeter on money, banking and finance… by A. Festre and E. Nasica
Conventional Wisdom:
Money is any object or record, that is generally accepted as payment for goods and services and repayment of debts in a given country or socio-economic context.
— Wikipedia
2. Why is money needed?
MMT: Money is needed in order to pay taxes
Money is created by government spending (or by bank loans, which create deposits) Taxes serve to make us want that money – we need it in order to pay taxes.
— The 7 Deadly Frauds of Economic Policy, Warren Mosler
The inordinate focus of [other] economists on coins (and especially on government-issued coins), market exchange and precious metals, then appears to be misplaced. The key is debt, and specifically, the ability of the state to impose a tax debt on its subjects; once it has done this, it can choose the form in which subjects can ‘pay’ the tax. While governments could in theory require payment in the form of all the goods and services it requires, this would be quite cumbersome. Thus it becomes instead a debtor to obtain what it requires, and issues a token (hazelwood tally or coin) to indicated the amount of its indebtedness; it then accepts its own token in payment to retire tax liabilities. Certainly its tokens can also be used as a medium of exchange (and means of debt settlement among private individuals), but this derives from its ability to impose taxes and its willingness to accept its tokens, and indeed is necessitated by imposition of the tax (if on has a tax liability but is not a creditor of the Crown, one must offer things for sale to obtain the Crown’s tokens).
— Money: An Alternate Story by Eric Tymoigne and L. Randall Wray
Money, in [the Chartalist] view, derives from obligations (fines, fees, tribute, taxes) imposed by authority; this authority then “spends” by issuing physical representations of its own debts (tallies, notes) demanded by those who are obligated to pay “taxes” to the authority. Once one is indebted to the crown, one must obtain the means of payment accepted by the crown. One can go directly to the crown, offering goods or services to obtain the crown’s tallies—or one can turn to others who have obtained the crown’s tallies, by engaging in “market activity” or by becoming indebted to them. Indeed, “market activity” follows (and follows from) imposition of obligations to pay fees, fines, and taxes in money form.
— A Chartalist Critique of John Locke’s Theory of Property, Accumulation and Money… by Bell, Henry, and Wray
Conventional Wisdom:
Money is needed as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and a store of value.
Old School Wisdom:
Money is needed because it could “excite the industry of mankind.”
— Thomas Hume, Hume, Money and Civilization… by C. George Caffettzis
Old School Tony Montoya, aka Scarface, Wisdom: money is needed for doing business, settling debts, and emergency situations…
Hector the Toad: So, you got the money?
Tony Montana: Yep. You got the stuff?
Hector the Toad: Sure I have the stuff. I don’t have it with me here right now. I have it close by.
Tony Montana: Oh… well I don’t have the money either. I have it close by too.
Hector the Toad: Where? Down in your car?
Tony Montana: [lying] Uh… no. Not in the car.
Hector the Toad: No?
Tony Montana: What about you? Where do you keep your stuff?
Hector the Toad: Not far.
Tony Montana: I ain’t getting the money unless I see the stuff first.
Hector the Toad: No, no. First the money, then the stuff.
Tony Montana: [after a long tense pause] Okay. You want me to come in, and we start over again?
Hector the Toad: [changing the subject] Where are you from, Tony?
Tony Montana: [getting angry and supicious] What the f**k difference does that make on where I’m from?
Hector the Toad: Cona, Tony. I’m just asking just so I know who I’m doing business with.
Tony Montana: Well, you can know about me when you stop f**king around and start doing business with me, Hector![…]
Hector the Toad: You want to give me the cash, or do I kill your brother first, before I kill you?
Tony Montana: Why don’t you try sticking your head up your ass? See if it fits.[…]
Frank Lopez: [pleading] Please Tony, don’t kill me. Please, give me one more chance. I give you $10 million. $10 million! All of it, you can have the whole $10 million. I give you $10 million. I give you all $10 million just to let me go. Come on, Tony, $10 million. It’s in a vault in Spain, we get on a plane and it’s all yours. That’s $10 million just to spare me.
— dialog from Scarface, the movie
Note: The comment about the $10 million stashed in a Spanish vault highlights a small chink in MMT’s armor. If the taxing power of the sovereign state is sabotaged, or there is widespread tax evasion, then MMT falls apart.
3. Where does money come from?
MMT: The government just credits accounts
Modern money comes from “nowhere.”
— Bill Mitchell
Conventional Wisdom: Money comes from the government printing currency and making it legal tender.
4. Government Spending: any limits?
MMT: government spending is not constrained.
a sovereign government can always spend what it wants. The Japanese government, with the highest debt ratio by far (190 per cent or so) has exactly the same capacity to spend as the Australian government which has a public debt ratio around 18 per cent (last time I looked). Both have an unlimited financial capacity to spend.
That is not the same thing as saying they should spend in an unlimited fashion. Clearly they should run deficits sufficient to close the non-government spending gap. That should be the only fiscal rule they obey.
— Bill Mitchell
Conventional Wisdom: government spending should be constrained
One option to ensure that we begin to get our fiscal house in order is a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution. I have no doubt that my Republican colleagues will overwhelmingly support this common sense measure and I urge Democrats to as well in order to get our fiscal house in order.
— House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA), June 23th, 2010
5. What is Quantitative Easing?
MMT: It is an asset swap. It is not “printing money” and it is not a very good anti-recession strategy.
Quantitative easing merely involves the central bank buying bonds (or other bank assets) in exchange for deposits made by the central bank in the commercial banking system – that is, crediting their reserve accounts… So quantitative easing is really just an accounting adjustment in the various accounts to reflect the asset exchange. The commercial banks get a new deposit (central bank funds) and they reduce their holdings of the asset they sell…
Invoking the “evil-sounding” printing money terminology to describe this practice is thus very misleading – and probably deliberately so. All transactions between the Government sector (Treasury and Central Bank) and the non-government sector involve the creation and destruction of net financial assets denominated in the currency of issue. Typically, when the Government buys something from the Non-government sector they just credit a bank account somewhere – that is, numbers denoting the size of the transaction appear electronically in the banking system.
It is inappropriate to call this process – “printing money”. Commentators who use this nomenclature do so because they know it sounds bad! The orthodox (neo-liberal) economics approach uses the “printing money” term as equivalent to “inflationary expansion”. If they understood how the modern monetary system actually worked they would never be so crass…
So I don’t think quantitative easing is a sensible anti-recession strategy. The fact that governments are using it now just reflects the neo-liberal bias towards monetary policy over fiscal policy…
— Bill Mitchell
Conventional Wisdom: Quantitative Easing is “money printing”
James Grant, editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, says Quantitative Easing Is Just Money Printing
6. What is the view on personal debt?
MMT: personal debt is not dangerous
Americans today have too much personal debt. False. Private debt adds money to our economy. Though bankruptcies have increased lately, that is due more to the liberalization of bankruptcy laws, rather than to economics. Despite rising debt and bankruptcies, our economy has continued to grow. The evidence is that high private debt has had no negative effect on our economy as a whole, though it can be a problem for any individual.
— Free Money: Plan for Prosperity ©2005 (pg 154), by Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
Note: Rodger Mitchell is an MMT extremist. He calls his brand of MMT, “Monetary Sovereignty“. Not all of his views may be in sync with mainstream MMT doctrine.
Conventional Wisdom: too much debt is dangerous
The core of our economic problem is, instead, the debt — mainly mortgage debt — that households ran up during the bubble years of the last decade. Now that the bubble has burst, that debt is acting as a persistent drag on the economy, preventing any real recovery in employment.
— Paul Krugman, NY Times
Old School Wisdom: debt is always dangerous
“Neither a borrower, nor a lender be”
— Polonius speaking in Hamlet, by William Shakespeare
7. What is the view on foreign trade?
MMT: Exporters please just take some more fiat money and everyone will be fat and happy!
Think of all those cars Japan sold to us for under $2,000 years ago. They’ve been holding those dollars in their savings accounts at the Fed (they own U.S. Treasury securities), and if they now would want to spend those dollars, they would probably have to pay in excess of $20,000 per car to buy cars from us. What can they do about the higher prices? Call the manager and complain? They’ve traded millions of perfectly good cars to us in exchange for credit balances on the Fed’s books that can buy only what we allow them to buy…
We are not dependent on China to buy our securities or in any way fund our spending. Here’s what’s really going on: Domestic credit creation is funding foreign savings…
Assume you live in the U.S. and decide to buy a car made in China. You go to a U.S. bank, get accepted for a loan and spend the funds on the car. You exchanged the borrowed funds for the car, the Chinese car company has a deposit in the bank and the bank has a loan to you and a deposit belonging to the Chinese car company on their books. First, all parties are “happy.” You would rather have the car than the funds, or you would not have bought it, so you are happy. The Chinese car company would rather have the funds than the car, or they would not have sold it, so they are happy. The bank wants loans and deposits, or it wouldn’t have made the loan, so it’s happy.
There is no “imbalance.” Everyone is sitting fat and happy…
— Warren Mosler, The 7 Deadly Frauds of Economic Policy
Old School Wisdom: Trade arrangements will break down if a currency is debased
“Sorry paleface, Chief say your wampum is no good. We want steel knives and fire-water for our beaver pelts.” — American Indian reaction after Dutch colonists debase wampum in the 1600’s
Personal income and spending lower, savings up
Still no mention of how the federal deficit contributes to savings.
Or how QE and 0 rates have lowered personal income.
Now that the debt ceiling hike looks to be passed,
we’re back to the ‘death by 1000 cuts’ scenario.
Jury still out on whether China is in the process of a hard landing
UK austerity keeping a lid on demand there
Eurozone seems to be slowing as well, as Italy and Spain watch funding costs escalate.
As the carpenter once remarked, ‘no matter how much I cut off it’s still too short…’
But in the first half stocks did show they can make reasonable returns with very modest GDP growth.
While unemployment showed it doesn’t come down with only modest GDP growth.
Personal Spending Down 0.2% While Income Growth Slows
By: ReutersUS consumer spending unexpectedly fell in June to post the first decline in nearly two years as incomes barely rose, a government report showed, suggesting economic growth could remain subdued in the third quarter.
The Commerce Department said consumer spending slipped 0.2 percent, the first drop since September 2009, after edging up 0.1 percent in May.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, to rise 0.2 percent.
When adjusted for inflation, spending was flat in June after easing 0.1 percent the prior month. The decline came even as gasoline prices retreated from their peak just above $4 a gallon in early May and suggested the much-anticipated bounce back growth in the third quarter would lack vigor.
Consumer spending barely grew in the second quarter, inching up at an annual rate of only 0.1 percent—the weakest pace since the end of the 2007-09 recession. Spending increased at a 2.1 percent rate in the first quarter.
That contributed to hold the economy to an anemic growth pace of 1.3 percent in the second quarter.
The weak spending in June also reflected tepid income growth after employment growth ground to a near halt in June, with nonfarm payrolls rising only 18,000. Income ticked up 0.1 percent, the smallest increase since November, after rising 0.2 percent in May.
Disposable income ticked up 0.1 percent, also the smallest increase since November. But when adjusted for inflation, disposable income rose 0.3 percent. With real disposable income outpacing spending, savings rose to $620.6 billion from $581.7 billion in May.
Spain Placed by Moody’s on Review for Possible Downgrade
They all quickly go to junk if the US goes cold turkey to a balanced budget
> Spain Placed by Moody’s on Review for Possible Downgrade
> 2011-07-29 05:20:32.543 GMT
>
>
> By Maria Ermakova
> July 29 (Bloomberg) — Spain’s Aa2 ratings were placed by
> Moody’s Investors Service on review for possible downgrade.
> The country’s Prime-1 short-term ratings are unaffected by
> today’s action, Moody’s said.
EU stance shifts on Greece default
Mosler bonds issued to both address current funding requirements and buy back discounted Greek govt debt would further enhance the credit worthiness of those bonds by further and substantially reducing Greek govt interest expense.
Interesting how the word now coming out on the French plan, which initially was greeted with a near celebration, is now entirely negative to the point where it’s being dismissed.
And default discussions now moving to the front burner is telling, as just last week that was proclaimed ‘out of the question’
EU stance shifts on Greece default
By Peter Spiegel and Patrick Jenkins
July 10 (FT) — European leaders are for the first time prepared to accept that Athens should default on some of its bonds as part of a new bail-out plan for Greece that would put the country’s overall debt levels on a sustainable footing.
The new strategy, to be discussed at a Brussels meeting of eurozone finance ministers on Monday, could also include new concessions by Greece’s European lenders to reduce Athens’ debt, such as further lowering interest rates on bail-out loans and a broad-based bond buyback programme. It also marks the possible abandonment of a French-backed plan for banks to roll-over their Greek debt.
“The basic goal is to reduce the debt burden of Greece both through actions of the private sector and the public sector,” said one senior European official involved in negotiations.
Officials cautioned the new tack was still in the early stages, and final details were not expected until late summer. But if the strategy were agreed, it would mark a significant shift in the 18-month struggle to contain the eurozone debt crisis.
Until now, European leaders have been reluctant to back any plan categorised as a default for fear it could lead to a flight by investors from all bonds issued by peripheral eurozone countries – including Italy and Spain, the eurozone’s third and fourth largest economies.
Yields on Italian bonds, which move inversely to prices, rose sharply last week due to the Greek uncertainty. Senior European leaders – including Jean-Claude Trichet, European Central Bank chief, and Jean-Claude Junker, head of the euro group – are to meet top European Union officials ahead of Monday’s finance ministers’ gathering amidst growing fears of contagion.
A German-led group of creditor countries has for weeks been attempting to get “voluntary” help from private bondholders to delay repayment of Greek bonds, a move they hoped would lower Greece’s overall debt while avoiding a default.
But in recent days, debt rating agencies warned any attempt to get bondholders to participate would represent a selective default. Rather than abandon bondholder buy-ins, however, several European leaders have decided to return to a German-backed plan to push current Greek debt holders to swap their holdings for new, longer-maturing bonds.
The move essentially scraps a French proposal unveiled last month, which many analysts believed would only add to Greek debt levels by offering expensive incentives for banks that hold Greek debt to roll over their maturing bonds.
Officials said the Institute of International Finance, the group representing large banks holding Greek debt, has gradually moved away from the French plan and begun to embrace elements of the German plan.
“There’s some convergence in the banking community towards a more realistic plan than the French plan, which was out of this world,” said the senior European official. The plan criticised as being self-serving for the banks.
According to executives involved in the IIF talks, banks have pushed for a Greek bond buyback plan in return for agreeing to a restructuring programme, arguing that only if Greece’s overall debt were reduced could a sustainable recovery occur.
European officials said there was support for the proposal in government circles. The plan, originally pushed by German investors, including Deutsche Bank, could see as much as 10 per cent of outstanding Greek debt repurchased on the open market.
Since Greek bonds are currently trading below face value, such purchases would essentially be a voluntary “haircut”, since bondholders would accept payment for far less than the bonds are worth.
It remains unclear how a buyback would be financed, however. The European Commission has long pushed for the eurozone’s €440bn bail-out fund to be used for buybacks, but Berlin blocked the proposal.
CH News – China says willing to help economic growth in Europe
‘So what will you do for us if we buy your bonds instead of US bonds’ said the spider to the fly, as China continues to play us all off against each other.
(And it seems they have gotten ‘assurances’ regarding default risk.)
China says willing to help economic growth in Europe
June 21 (Reuters) — China is willing to help European countries realise stable economic growth, China’s Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday ahead of a visit by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao to Hungary, Britain and Germany this week.
“The Chinese government has already taken a series of proactive measures to push Sino-Europe trade and economic cooperation, such as buying euro bonds,” ministry spokesman Hong Lei told a regular news briefing when asked about China’s view of the Greek debt crisis.
“China is willing to continue helping European countries realise economic growth in a stable manner through cooperation with relevant countries,” he added, without elaborating.
Wen’s latest visit to Europe from June 24 to 28 will come months after he visited France, Portugal and Spain, and offered to help European economies overcome their debt-driven crises.
The debt crisis afflicting Greece and weighing on the euro is likely to overshadow his visit.
Markets will watch keenly for how Wen handles economic expectations this time, especially with Greece’s woes deepening. Last week, China’s central bank urged European governments to contain debt levels or risk worsening the region’s unfolding debt crisis.
China signalled in April that it could buy more debt from the euro zone’s weaker states. There are no precise figures, but China has said it has bought billions of euros of debt.
Since euro-zone debt worries first rippled through markets last year, China has repeatedly said that it has confidence in the single-currency region and pledged to buy debt issued by some of its troubled member states.
China’s interest in a smooth resolution to the European debt troubles has been clear. Of its $3 trillion or more in foreign exchange reserves, about a quarter are estimated to be invested in euro-denominated assets.
China’s ‘vital’ interests at stake over Greek crisis
It’s more than China’s ‘vital interests’ as over their a loss of public funds from a Greek default could mean heads roll- literally- as there is a history of actual execution for failure and disgrace.
And note the past tense- China had helped by buying their debt.
Also, note the anecdotal signs of weakness, highlighted below:
Headlines:
China President Hu: Global Economic Recovery ‘Slow And Fragile’
China’s ‘vital’ interests at stake over Greek crisis
China Yuan Band Widening Would Have ‘Political’ Meaning Only
Consumer Spending Fades in China Economy After ‘Peak Days’
China economy faces over-tightening risk – government economist
China President Hu: Global Economic Recovery ‘Slow And Fragile’
June 17 (Dow Jones) — Chinese President Hu Jintao said Friday that the global economic recovery is still “slow and fragile” and is threatened by a resurgence of protectionism in various forms.
“There still exist some lagging effects of the financial crisis,” he said at a keynote speech at an investment forum in Russia.
Despite failing to agree on a landmark deal for gas supplies from Siberia, Hu was upbeat on the outlook for bilateral trade with Russia, which is rich in other natural resources crucial to China’s economic development.
Hu said he hopes to raise the level of annual bilateral trade between the two countries to $100 billion by 2015, and $200 billion by 2020, compared with $60 billion in 2010.
In 2009, Russia and China agreed in principle to construct two pipelines that would export natural gas from Siberia to China, but a final agreement has been held up due to persistent differences on gas pricing.
Late Thursday, the two sides failed to reach an agreement during last-minute talks at Gazprom headquarters in Moscow.
China’s ‘vital’ interests at stake over Greek crisis
June 17 (Guardian) — China’s “vital” interests are at stake if Europe cannot resolve its debt crisis, the Chinese foreign ministry said on Friday as it voiced concern about the economic problems of its biggest trading partner.
At a media briefing ahead of Chinese premier Wen Jiabao’s visit to Europe next week, vice foreign minister Fu Ying made plain that China had tried to help Europe overcome its troubles by buying more European debt and encouraging bilateral trade.
“Whether the European economy can recover and whether some European economies can overcome their hardships and escape crisis, is vitally important for us,” she said.
“China has consistently been quite concerned with the state of the European economy.”
Wen is due to visit Hungary, Britain and Germany late next week, just months after he visited France, Portugal and Spain and offered to help Europe overcome its debt woes.
With Greece on the verge of a debt default, investors will focus on whether China promises to buy even more debt from beleaguered European nations including Greece, and increase its investment in the region.
China is a natural prospective investor in European assets and government debt because it has $3.05 trillion (£1.9tn) in foreign currency reserves, the world’s largest.
With a quarter of the reserves estimated to be invested in euro-denominated assets, it is clearly in Beijing’s interest to help Europe survive its debt turmoil.
“We have supported other countries, especially European countries, in their efforts to surmount the financial crisis,” Fu said. “We have, for example, increased holdings of euro debt and promoted China-European Union trade.”
Beijing has said in the past that it has bought Greek debt, but has never revealed the size of its investment.
Since eurozone debt worries first rippled through markets last year, China has repeatedly said that it has confidence in the single-currency region.
“We have hoped to help eurozone countries in overcoming the crisis, and this is also a measure that is beneficial to China’s own economic development,” Fu said.
But mirroring deteriorating market confidence on Europe, China’s central bank published a report this week saying the economic bloc risked worsening its problems if it did not contain debt levels.
WSJ Euro Symposium- Eichengreen, Sinn, Feldstein, Solbes, Hanke
The utter lack of understanding of monetary operations is telling.
None recognize the significance of the fiscal hierarchy move that shifted the euro member nations from currency issuer to currency users, making them much like US states in that regard.
None recognize the difference between deficits at the ‘currency issuer’ level and deficits at the ‘currency user’ level.
None recognize that the problem is a shortage of aggregate demand, that is not caused by a lack of available bank credit, and that ‘fixing the banks’ changes nothing in that regard.
None recognize that the liability side of banking is not the place for market discipline and that the ECB is the only source of credible deposit insurance.
None recognize that the ECB is in the role of currency issuer and is the only entity that is not revenue constrained.
None recognized the role of fiscal balance in offsetting the ‘savings desires’ that cause unemployment and the output gap in general.
None have proposed a means of allowing govt deficits that can be sustained at full employment levels.
None have recognized that the forces at work have resulted in the ECB has assuming the role of dictating permissible ‘terms and conditions’ for its funding that has become mandatory for the survival of the currency union. This includes the ECB dictating fiscal policy for the member nations.
This list could go on forever.
The text is below.
I couldn’t read it all and don’t suggest you read it either.
WSJ: The Future of the Euro: A Symposium
Fix the Banks, Fix the Currency
By Barry Eichengreen
For the euro to grow into a happy and healthy adult, many things must happen. Most importantly, Europe needs to fix its banking system. Many European banks, starting with Germany’s, are dangerously over-leveraged, undercapitalized, and exposed to Greek, Irish and Portuguese debt. Rigorous stress tests followed by capital injections are the most important step that governments can take to secure the euro’s place.
Since European leaders seem fixated on what to do after Greece’s rescue package runs out in 2013—often, it appears, to the neglect of more immediate problems—they should also contemplate transferring responsibility for supervising their banks from the national level to the newly created European Banking Authority. The mistaken belief that a single currency is compatible with separate national bank regulators is, at the most basic level, why Europe is in the fix it’s in.
Indeed, Europe’s budget deficits are largely a result of the continent’s festering banking crisis. Greece may be an exception, but it’s clearly of a kind. The whole euro area would benefit from stronger discipline on borrowers and lenders. However, it is fantastical to think that this can be achieved by imposing Germanic debt ceilings Continent-wide. Germany’s fiscal rules work because of Germany’s history. The idea that they can be mechanically transplanted to other countries is a historical thinking at its worst.
The only discipline guaranteed to prevent fiscal excesses is market discipline. Reckless borrowers and lenders must be made to pay for their actions. Governments with unsustainable debts should be forced to restructure them, damage to their sovereign creditworthiness or not. The banks that lent to them should similarly suffer consequences, as should the bondholders who provided those banks with funds.
But whether Europe can afford to let market discipline work comes back to the condition of its banks. Only if banks are adequately capitalized can they take losses without collapsing the financial system. Only if they are adequately capitalized can the European Central Bank refuse to buy more Greek, Irish and Portuguese bonds, and only then will the EU be able to say “no more bailouts.”
And once this experience with market discipline is burned into Europe’s collective consciousness, it will be correspondingly less likely that borrowers and lenders will again succumb to similar excesses.
In other words, European governments need to “put the risk back where it belongs, namely in the hands of the bondholders.” Those are not my words. They are from the mouth of Bundesbank President Axel Weber speaking in Dusseldorf on Feb. 21. But while President Weber is right about the principle, he is wrong to think this can wait until 2013.
Mr. Eichengreen is a professor at the University of California, Berkeley. His book, “Exorbitant Privilege: The Rise and Fall of the Dollar,” (Oxford University Press) was published in the U.K. last month.
Survival Isn’t Guaranteed
By Hans-Werner Sinn
In my opinion the euro should survive. Though its members are too many and too disparate, the monetary union must be maintained, largely with its current number of states, for the benefit of political stability. The euro also offers measurable economic benefits, among them substantial reductions in transaction costs and exchange risks, which are prerequisites for exploiting the benefits of free trade.
Whether the euro will survive is another matter. This very much depends on whether European countries implement political and private debt constraints that effectively limit capital flows. The trade imbalances from which the euro zone is currently suffering have resulted from excessive capital flows brought about by interest-rate convergence and the apparent elimination of investment risks after the currency conversion was announced some 15 years ago. While huge capital exports brought a slump to Germany, the countries at the euro zone’s southern and western peripheries overheated, with the bust and boom resulting in current-account surpluses and deficits respectively.
Automatic sanctions for excessive public borrowing, and a reform of the Basel system that forces banks to hold equity capital if they invest in government bonds, are among the political constraints necessary for the euro to survive. But much more important are private constraints.
After years of negligence, private markets have recently started to impose more rigid debt constraints on overheated euro economies. So the brakes kicked in eventually, but much too abruptly, triggering Europe’s sovereign debt crisis. What Europe needs is a crisis mechanism that is able to activate markets earlier and allow for a fine-tuning of the brakes they impose on capital flows; in sum, a crisis mechanism that helps to prevent a crisis in the first place and mitigates it when it occurs.
Such a system has recently been proposed by the European Economic Advisory Group at the Center for Economic Studies and the Ifo Institute for Economic Research (CESifo). The plan’s essential feature is a three-stage rescue mechanism that distinguishes between a liquidity crisis, impending insolvency, and full insolvency, and offers specific measures in each of these stages. The system places the most emphasis on a piecemeal debt-conversion procedure that contemplates haircuts in the second of these stages, which could help to avoid full insolvency by acting as an early warning signal for investors and debtors alike.
The system would allow Germany to gradually appreciate in real terms by living through a boom that generates higher wages and prices and thus reduces the country’s competitiveness, while cooling down the overheated economies of the south such that the resulting wage and price moderation would improve their competitiveness. European trade imbalances would gradually reduce.
If Europe, on the other hand, moves to a system of community bonds, where national debts are jointly guaranteed by all countries, then excessive capital flows would persist, and so would trade imbalances. The countries at Europe’s southern and western peripheries would abstain from necessary real depreciation, and Germany would not appreciate, with the result that trade imbalances would continue with ever-increasing foreign debt and asset positions respectively. In the end, Germans would own half of Europe. I do not dare to imagine the political tensions that would bring about. The death of the euro would be the least of our worries.
Mr. Sinn is president of Germany’s Ifo Institute for Economic Research and the CESifo Group.
David Gothard
Still an Economic Mistake
By Martin Feldstein
I continue to believe that the creation of the euro was an economic mistake. It was clear from the start that imposing a single monetary policy and a fixed exchange rate on a heterogeneous group of countries would cause higher unemployment and persistent trade imbalances. In addition, the combination of a single currency and independent national budgets inevitably produced the massive fiscal deficits that occurred in Greece and other countries. And the sharp drop in interest rates in several countries when the euro was launched caused the excessive private and public borrowing that eventually created the current banking and sovereign-debt crises in Spain, Ireland and elsewhere.
But history cannot be reversed. Despite these problems, the euro will continue to exist for the foreseeable future. It will continue even though that will require large fiscal transfers from Germany and other core nations to those euro-zone countries with large debts and chronic trade deficits.
One reason for the euro’s likely survival is purely political. The political elites who support the euro believe it gives the euro zone a prominent role in international affairs that the individual member countries would otherwise not have. Many of those supporters also hope that the euro zone will evolve into a federal state with greater political power.
There is also an economic reason that the euro will survive. While hard-working German voters may resent the transfer of their tax money to other countries that enjoy earlier retirement and shorter workweeks, the German business community supports paying taxes to preserve the euro because it recognizes that German businesses benefit from the fixed exchange rate that prevents other euro-zone countries from competing with Germany by devaluing their currencies.
The euro will not only survive but will likely continue to increase in value relative to the dollar as sovereign-wealth funds and other major investors shift an increasing share of their portfolios to euros from dollars.
Those investors had been quietly diversifying their investment funds to euros before the crisis began in Greece. They stopped temporarily because of uncertainty about the future of the currency. But they eventually came to recognize that the problems of the peripheral countries were not a problem for the euro and should be reflected in country-specific interest rates rather than in the euro’s value. The result was a rising euro and a renewed shift of portfolio balances to euros from dollars. As that process continues, the relative value of the euro will continue to rise.
Mr. Feldstein, chairman of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisers under President Reagan, is a professor of economics at Harvard University.
A Decade of Success
By Pedro Solbes
After 10 years with the euro, the economic crisis and its consequences in some countries of the euro zone have reopened the debate about the suitability of a single currency in the absence of a high level of political integration.
But the euro has been a great joint success, which has allowed for a long period of growth and price stability in Europe. It has had a different impact in each country, but its benefits have been seen across the board. The euro has permitted more coordinated action in Europe and has prevented competitive devaluations. This has been key not only for the euro zone, but also for the rest of Europe and even for the global economy. Without the euro, we would have witnessed an increase in protectionism, which would in turn have aggravated the impact of the crisis in Europe and elsewhere.
Would it have been easier to reach consensus in the G-20 without the euro zone? Would it have been easier to respond to the challenges and difficulties faced by the international financial system? Would there have been greater cash-flow access? The answer to all these questions is no. It could be argued that a fluctuating exchange rate could have limited the impact of the crisis in some countries. However, would the crisis have been avoided without correcting the fundamental problems in each country and subsequent generalized competitive devaluations? The absence of an exchange rate may have aggravated the problems that existed before the crisis. But have these been better tackled outside the euro? Some observers have affirmed that behavior outside the euro zone has not been any better.
Quite a few countries of the euro zone already faced significant risks before the crisis, both real (real-estate bubble, public and/or private debt) and financial (inadequate risk management or excessive dependence on external funding). In addition, in some cases, uncoordinated fiscal and monetary policies in the euro zone could have helped generate the problem. Experience shows that the Maastricht architecture designed to manage the euro zone has been lacking. Focusing economic-policy coordination in the fiscal arena, coupled with a somewhat lax implementation of norms, has not been enough. Leaving the task of correcting imbalances in the hands of euro member states has not worked. The crisis has brought to the fore the lack of a mechanism to help troubled countries before their problems end up affecting the entire euro zone.
As is often the case with the European construction process, the problem resides not only in diagnosing the problem. There is an urgent need for clear and quick solutions, backed by the political will to comply with what has been agreed, something not always easy to achieve when dealing with 27 different countries.
Even though it has not been adopted by all EU member states, the euro is today, as German chancellor Angela Merkel has recently expressed, an inherent element of the European integration process. The euro is here to stay and the real challenge is how to make it more efficient.
Mr. Solbes is chairman of the Executive Committee of FRIDE and former Spanish minister of economy.