Re: Is $700 billion a big number

(an email and an article) On Dec 23, 2007 5:37 PM, Russell Huntley wrote: > > > > For a very bearish take on the credit crisis, see: Crisis may make 1929 look > a ‘walk in the park’. The article includes a $700 billion loss estimate from > the head of ...Read More

It’s been hard for me to get in sync with markets where higher energy prices mean lower interest rates!

♥ ...Read More

Repo Mkts and TAF

(an interoffice email) On 12/21/07, Pat Doyle wrote: > > > > It is becoming apparent that the funding pressures for year end are ebbing. > The ease in pressure has a lot to do with the TAF and coordinated CBK > interventions. The Fed is getting the cash to the people ...Read More

Philly fed numbers from yesterday

The detail is of interest – no sign of weakness here. Prices still very firm. New orders and shipments strong. Work week higher. Inventories down due to shipments up – seems to have caused all the headline ‘weakness’. ♥ ...Read More

2007-12-21 US Economic Releases

Personal Income (Nov) Survey 0.5% Actual 0.4% Prior 0.2% Revised n/a OK number. Personal Spending (Nov) Survey 0.7% Actual 1.1% Prior 0.2% Revised 0.4% Nice bounce back from a low number also revised up. Makes the two month average about 0.75%. This will cause further upward revisions of Q4 GDP. PCE Deflator ...Read More

2007-12-20 US Economic Releases

GDP Annualized (3QF) Survey 4.9% Actual 4.9% Prior 4.9% Revised n/a Personal Consumption (3QF) Survey 42.8.9% Actual 2.8% Prior 2.7% Revised n/a GDP Price Index (3QF) Survey 0.9% Actual 1.0% Prior 0.9% Revised n/a Above numbers as expected. Core PCE QoQ (3QF) Survey 1.8% Actual 2.0% Prior 1.8% Revised n/a This is ...Read More

it’s about price, not quantity

It’s about price, not quantity. CB’s don’t alter net reserve positions – they ‘offset operating factors’ and set interest rates. Fed to redeem $14.02 bln of bill holdings Dec. 27 Thu Dec 20, 2007 11:20am EST NEW YORK, Dec 20 (Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve said on Thursday it will redeem ...Read More

Commercial paper outstanding continues to fall

Seems to be unwinding in an orderly fashion as lending continues to flow back to the banking sector. UPDATE 1-US commercial paper in biggest weekly drop since Aug Thu Dec 20, 2007 10:41am EST NEW YORK, Dec 20 (Reuters) – The size of the U.S. commercial paper market suffered its biggest weekly ...Read More

SOV CDS

From: ABNAMRO CREDIT SALES (ABN AMRO) At: 12/20 5:18:53 10YR 5YR BELGUIM 19/21 11/15 FRANCE 10/12 6/9 GERMANY 8/10 4/7 GREECE 29/31 22/24 ITALY 29/31 21/23 PORTUGAL 26/28 20/22 SPAIN 25 1/2/27 1/2 19/21 UK 9/11 5/8 USA 8/11 5/8 In the Eurozone, it’s probably the case that if one goes, they ...Read More

AMT tax reduction passes

Looks like it adds about $50 billion to 2008 after tax incomes. Demand can use all the help it can get right now! Congress Gives AMT Relief For 20 Million Taxpayers Congress acted in its final hours Wednesday to block growth of the alternative minimum tax, putting off an economic hardship affecting ...Read More