Tag Archives: PCE Core

2009-04-30 USER

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Karim writes:

  • Initial claims -13k to 631k; continuing claims up another 133k (up every week this year) to 6271k
  • Suggests another 650-700k drop in payrolls and rise in ue rate from 8.5% to 9% for April employment report
  • Those numbers will in turn cause the data we received today on incomes and wages for March, to worsen from already historically weak levels.
  • Personal income -0.3% m/m and +0.3% y/y
  • Wage and salary component of income -0.5% m/m and -1.2% y/y (prior all-time low was -0.3% y/y)
  • Personal spending -0.2%. Q1 profile for real personal spending= +0.9% in Jan, +0.1% in Feb, and -0.2% in Mar. This will create a challenge for the PCE component of GDP for Q2.
  • ECI up 0.3% q/q and 2.1% y/y in Q1, both all-time lows
  • Chicago PMI for April up from 31.4 to 40.1
  • Looks like national ISM should bounce to about 39-40 tomorrow after 36.3
  • Fed comments yesterday seem to echo what I heard from ECB/BOE: Recent bounce in PMIs seem unrelated to prospects for recovery in late 2009/early 2010.

Personal Income MoM (Mar)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.3%
Prior -0.2%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.3%
Prior 1.0%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income ALLX (Mar)

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Personal Spending (Mar)

Survey -0.1%
Actual -0.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.4%

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PCE Deflator YoY (Mar)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 1.0%
Revised 0.9%

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PCE Core MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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PCE Core YoY (Mar)

Survey 1.8%
Actual 1.8%
Prior 1.8%
Revised n/a

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Employment Cost Index (1Q)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.5%
Revised 0.6%

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Employment Cost Index ALLX (1Q)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 25)

Survey 640K
Actual 631K
Prior 640K
Revised 645K

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Continuing Claims (Apr 18)

Survey 6200K
Actual 6271K
Prior 6137K
Revised 6138K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Apr 25)

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Apr)

Survey 35.0
Actual 40.1
Prior 31.4
Revised n/a

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NAPM Milwaukee (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 39.0
Prior 30.0
Revised n/a


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2009-03-02 USER

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Personal Income MoM (Jan)

Survey -0.2%
Actual 0.4%
Prior -0.2%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.9%
Prior 1.6%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income ALLX (Jan)

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Personal Spending (Jan)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.6%
Prior -1.0%
Revised n/a

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PCE Deflator YoY (Jan)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.7%
Prior 0.6%
Revised 0.8%

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PCE Core MoM (Jan)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

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PCE Core YoY (Jan)

Survey 1.6%
Actual 1.6%
Prior 1.7%
Revised n/a

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ISM Manufacturing (Feb)

Survey 33.8
Actual 35.8
Prior 35.6
Revised n/a

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ISM Prices Paid (Feb)

Survey 33.5
Actual 35.8
Prior 35.6
Revised n/a

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Construction Spending MoM (Jan)

Survey -1.5%
Actual -3.3%
Prior -1.4%
Revised -2.4%

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Construction Spending YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -9.1%
Prior -6.7%
Revised n/a


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2008-09-29 USER

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Personal Income MoM (Aug)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.5%
Prior -0.7%
Revised -0.6%

 
Better than expected and prior month revised up a tenth. Fiscal packages don’t fade as quickly as the mainstream guesses.

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Personal Income YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.6%
Prior 4.5%
Revised n/a

 
Good enough to keep GDP muddling through, though the financial crisis could slow spending down some.

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Personal Income ALLX (Aug)

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Personal Consumption MoM (Aug)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.1%

 
Less than expected even though income holding up, and prior revised up a tenth. Income in excess of spending doesn’t usually persist.

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Personal Consumption YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.6%
Prior 4.9%
Revised n/a

 
On the soft side and continuing its gradual decline.

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PCE Deflator YoY (Aug)

Survey 4.5%
Actual 4.5%
Prior 4.5%
Revised 4.6%

 
As expected and too high for Fed comfort.

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PCE Core MoM (Aug)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

 
Remains firm.

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PCE Core YoY (Aug)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.4%
Revised 2.5%

 
Higher than expected, prior revised up a tenth, and looks to be breaking out. Not encouraging for the Fed. They want it below 2.0%.

Karim writes:

  • Nominal PCE unchanged in August after two consecutive declines.

  • Real consumer spending tracking -2.0% (annualized) thus far in Q3.

  • Inventory rebound should keep GDP positive in Q3.

  • Core deflator up 0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/y.


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2008-08-29 US Economic Releases

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Personal Income MoM (Jul)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.7%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.2%
Prior 5.5%
Revised n/a

Still at higher levels than before the rebates and far from a consumer collapse.

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Personal Income TABLE 1 (Jul)

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Personal Income TABLE 2 (Jul)

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Personal Spending MoM (Jul)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

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Personal Spending YoY (Jul)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

Doesn’t look all that bad to me.

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PCE Deflator YOY (Jul)

Survey 4.5%
Actual 4.5%
Prior 4.1%
Revised 4.0%

This is not the kind of chart the Fed wants to see.

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PCE Core MoM (Jul)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

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PCE Core YoY (Jul)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 2.4%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

Neither is this.

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PCE ALLX 1 (Jul)

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PCE ALLX 2 (Jul)

Karim writes:

  • Not much to alter Fed’s view or likely course with this data
  • Real PCE down -0.3% m/m for July, in line with expectations. Nominal PCE up 0.2%.
  • Personal income down 0.7%, again as expected, and due to drop in government transfers (fiscal package ended)
  • Core PCE deflator up 0.3% m/m and 2.4% y/y. At Jackson Hole, Bernanke stated he expected inflation to ‘moderate later this year and next’, meaning he still sees a few more months of possible upward pressure.

Yes, and he has been saying he expects headline inflation to moderate at every speaking event for the last few years.

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 230.00
Prior 233.37
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual -17.15%
Prior -15.60%
Revised n/a

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Aug)

Survey 50.0
Actual 57.9
Prior 50.8
Revised n/a

Upside surprise here.

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Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE 1 (Aug)

Prices paid still way high; big dip in employment.

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Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE 2 (Aug)

Karim writes:

  • Chicago PMI rises from 50.8 to 57.9; but orders and production components (each up sharply) at odds with employment component (down sharply), so report to be taken with a grain of salt.

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U of Michigan Confidence (Aug F)

Survey 62.0
Actual 63.0
Prior 61.7
Revised n/a

Karim writes:

  • Final UMICH survey for August shows minor improvement in confidence (61.7 to 63.0) and no change in inflation expectations components.
  • ISM and payrolls next week to weigh more heavily

Confidence turning up with the rebates.

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U of Michigan Consumer Attitudes TABLE (Aug F)

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Inflation Expectations 1yr Fwd (Aug F)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.8%
Prior 5.1%
Revised n/a

The Fed worries these will get embedded.

Personally, I don’t see inflation as a function of expectations but they do.

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Inflation Expectations 5yr Fwd (Aug 5)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.2%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

Too high still.

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NAPM-Milwaukee (Aug)

Survey 44.0
Actual 43.0
Prior 44.0
Revised n/a

A bit worse than expected but still off the bottom.

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NAPM-Milwaukee ALLX (Aug)


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2008-08-04 US Economic Releases

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 140.8%
Prior 46.7%
Revised n/a

Starting to reflect the labor market weakness.

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE (Jul)

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Personal Income MoM (Jun)

Survey -0.2%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 1.9%
Revised 1.8%

Better than expected and looking ok.

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Personal Income YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.7%
Prior 6.0%
Revised n/a

Holding up with the fiscal package kicking in along with other government spending.

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Personal Income ALLX (Jun)

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Personal Spending MoM (Jun)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 0.8%
Revised n/a

Also better than expected for same reasons.

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Personal Spending YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.3%
Prior 5.0%
Revised n/a

Looking pretty good here, too.

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PCE Deflator YOY (Jun)

Survey 3.7%
Actual 4.1%
Prior 3.1%
Revised 3.5%

ugly number for the Fed tomorrow.

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PCE Core MoM (Jun)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.1%
Revised 0.2%

Fed wary of headline leaking into core. This is not encouraging.

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PCE Core YoY (Jun)

Survey 2.2%
Actual 2.3%
Prior 2.1%
Revised 2.2%

Also moving the wrong way for the Fed, and they know headline numbers leak into core with substantial lags.

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Personal Spending ALLX 1 (Jun)

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Personal Spending ALLX 2 (Jun)

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Factory Orders MoM (Jun)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 1.7%
Prior 0.6%
Revised 0.9%

Government and exports providing the support at the macro level.

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Factory Orders YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 7.1%
Prior 5.4%
Revised n/a

Looks to be moving up nicely.

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Factory Orders ALLX (Jun)


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2008-05-30 US Economic Releases

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2008-05-30 Personal Income

Personal Income (Apr)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.3%
Revised 0.4%

Soldiering on, and would have been higher if the Fed hadn’t cut rates as interest income is a meaningful factor.

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2008-05-30 Personal Spending

Personal Spending (Apr)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

Also holding up and supporting GDP at muddling through levels.

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2008-05-30 PCE Deflator YoY

PCE Deflator YoY (Apr)

Survey 3.1%
Actual 3.2%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

Zig-zagging its way higher as crude prices rise and get passed through to everything else over time.

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2008-05-30 PCE Core MoM

PCE Core MoM (Apr)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

Taking a breather for a month or so.

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2008-05-30 PCE Core YoY

PCE Core YoY (Apr)

Survey 2.1%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

In the 1970’s this moved through 3% as headline moved through 6%.  Might be just a few months away.

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2008-05-30 Chicago Purchasing Manager

Chicago Purchasing Manager (May)

Survey 48.5
Actual 49.1
Prior 48.3
Revised n/a

Another indicator coming in better than expected and showing signs it has bottomed.

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2008-05-30 U. of Michigan Confidence

U. of Michigan Confidence (May F)

Survey 59.5
Actual 59.8
Prior 59.5
Revised n/a

Though a tad better than expected, still down and out due to rapidly rising inflation expectations.

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2008-05-30 NAPM-Milwaukee

NAPM-Milwaukee

Survey 47.0
Actual 45.0
Prior 48.0
Revised n/a

Not looking cheerful in Milwaukee.


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2008-05-01 US Economic Releases

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2008-05-01 Challenger Job Cuts YoY

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 27.4%
Prior 9.4%
Revised n/a

Seem to be drifting higher.

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2008-05-01 Personal Income

Personal Income (Mar)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.5%
Revised n/a

Not the stuff of recessions.

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2008-05-01 Personal Spending

Personal Spending (Mar)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

Muddling through.

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2008-05-01 PCE Deflator YoY

PCE Deflator YoY (Mar)

Survey 3.2%
Actual 3.2%
Prior 3.4%
Revised n/a

Still far too high for comfort for a mainstream economist.

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2008-05-01 PCE Core MoM

PCE Core MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

I’m anticipation more 0.3%s for the rest of this year.

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2008-05-01 PCE Core YoY

PCE Core YoY (Mar)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.0%
Revised n/a

Starting to move back up.

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2008-05-01 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 26)

Survey 365K
Actual 380K
Prior 342K
Revised 345K

No recession yet.

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2008-05-01 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Apr 19)

Survey 2950K
Actual 3019K
Prior 2934K
Revised 2945K

No recession yet.

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2008-05-01 ISM Manufacturing

ISM Manufacturing (Apr)

Survey 48.0
Actual 48.6
Prior 48.6
Revised n/a

Staying above recession levels.

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2008-05-01 ISM Prices Paid

ISM Prices Paid (Apr)

Survey 83.5
Actual 84.5
Prior 83.5
Revised n/a

Inflation ripping!

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2008-05-01 Construction Spending MoM

Construction Spending MoM (Mar)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -1.1%
Prior -0.3%
Revised 0.4%

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2008-05-01 Construction Spending YoY

Construction Spending YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -3.4%
Prior -2.2%
Revised n/a

Still weak.

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Total Vehicle Sales (Apr)

Survey 15.0M
Actual —
Prior 15.1M
Revised —

[comments]

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Domestic Vehicle Sales (Apr)

Survey 11.4M
Actual –
Prior 11.1M
Revised –

[comments]


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2008-03-28 US Economic Releases

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2008-03-28 Personal Income

Personal Income (Feb)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.5%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

This is what supports the economy longer term and cushions downturns.

2008-03-28 Personal Spending

Personal Spending (Feb)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

Down some, but with personal income remaining firm spending is sustained over the medium term.

2008-03-28 PCE Deflator YoY

PCE Deflator YoY (Feb)

Survey 3.5%
Actual 3.4%
Prior 3.7%
Revised 3.5%

Not good, and more price increases are in the pipeline.

2008-03-28 PCE Core YoY

PCE Core YoY (Feb)

Survey 2.1%
Actual 2.0%
Prior 2.2%
Revised 2.0%

Back to the high end of the Fed’s comfort zone, but with higher prices in the pipeline, it’s looking to move higher.

2008-03-28 U. of Michigan Confidence

U. of Michigan Confidence (Mar F)

Survey 70.0
Actual 69.5
Prior 70.5
Revised n/a

2008-03-28 U. of Michigan Confidence TABLE

U. of Michigan Confidence TABLE

2008-03-28 Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations

Current conditions up, expectations down. Sound familiar?

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2008-02-29 US Economic Releases

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2008-02-29 Personal Income YoY

Personal Income YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.9
Prior 5.6
Revised n/a

Falling off some. Interest rates are partially responsible, as last I checked households are still net savers and have net interest income.

This is one reason I lean towards the view that lower interest rates tend to slow nominal growth, while higher interest rates support nominal growth.

2008-02-29 Personal Consumption Expense Nom$ YoY

Personal Expenditures Nominal$ YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.5%
Prior 5.8%
Revised n/a

Nominal spending holding up. With our ‘new’ export economy, real spending gives way to exports, and GDP muddles through.

2008-02-29 Personal Consumption Expenditures Chain YoY

Personal Expenditures Chain YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.8%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

2008-02-29 Personal Consumption Expenditures Price YoY

Personal Expenditure Price YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.7%
Prior 3.6%
Revised n/a

This is problematic for the Fed.

2008-02-29 Personal Consumption Expenditures Core YoY

Personal Expenditure Core YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

This is not easy for the Fed to watch, as they worked long and hard to bring it below 2% and back to their comfort zone of 1-2%. Now the concern is how hard it will be to bring down from even higher expected levels if they keep cutting rates.

2008-02-29 Personal Consumption Market Based YoY

Personal Consumption Market Based YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.7%
Prior 3.6%
Revised n/a

As above, this is way too high for comfort.

2008-02-29 Personal Consumption Expendatures Market Based Core YoY

Personal Consumption Market Based Core YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.9%
Prior 2.0%
Revised n/a

Also as above. Ok, but threatening to move higher and be very costly to bring back down.

2008-02-29 PCE Core YoY

PCE Core YoY (Jan)

Survey 2.2%
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

As above.

2008-02-29 Chicago Purchasing Manager

Chicago Purchasing Manager (Feb)

Survey 49.5
Actual 44.5
Prior 51.5
Revised n/a

2008-02-29 Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE

Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE

Definitely not good, but like ISM, a survey that gets subjective responses, and price components remain high.

New orders up as well.

2008-02-29 U. of Michigan Confidence

U. of Michigan Confidence (Feb F)

Survey 70.0
Actual 70.8
Prior 69.6
Revised n/a

2008-02-29 U of Michigan Confidence TABLE

U. of Michigan Confidence TABLE

While better than expected, does not look good.

And one year inflation expectations are up to 3.6%.

2008-02-29 NAPM Milwaukee

NAPM-Milwaukee (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 53.0
Prior 58.0
Revised n/a

Below expectations, but positive. Probably won’t get reported anywhere else..

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2008-01-31 US Economic Releases

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2008-01-31 Personal Income

Personal Income (Dec)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.5%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

2008-01-31 Personal Income TABLE

Personal Income TABLE

A bit better than expected, holding up reasonably well, as declining interest rates reduce interest income component.

2008-01-31 Personal Spending

Personal Spending (Dec)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 1.1%
Revised 1.0%

2008-01-31 Personal Spending TABLE(1)

2008-01-31 Personal Spending TABLE(2)

Personal Spending TABLE

OK number after last month’s large increase.

Also holding up reasonably well, but trending modestly downward.

2008-01-31 PCE Deflator YoY

PCE Deflator YoY (Dec)

Survey 3.5%
Actual 3.5%
Prior 3.6%
Revised n/a

Too high for the Fed, but hopefully it will come down to core.

small-2008-01-31-pce-core-mom.gif

PCE Core MoM (Dec)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

Actual was 0.23%

2008-01-31 PCE Core YoY

PCE Core YoY (Dec)

Survey 2.2%
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

Fed OK with this number and should be OK next month as January 2007 was up 0.2%. After that, the 2007 numbers are 0.1%’s for a while; so, there’s a better chance of YoY increases after that.

2008-01-31 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 26)

Survey 319K
Actual 375K
Prior 301K
Revised 306K

Big jump up as expected by Karim.

4 week average about 325,000 likely return to pre-January trend of about 350,000 (See Karim’s report).

Not yet the stuff of recession.

2008-01-31 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Jan 19)

Survey 2685K
Actual 2716K
Prior 2672K
Revised 2669K

Moved back up some.

Also not yet the stuff of recession.

2008-01-31 Employment Cost Index

Employment Cost Index (4Q)

Survey 0.8%
Actual 0.8%
Prior 0.8%
Revised n/a

2008-01-31 Employment Cost Index YoY

Employment Cost Index YoY

Survey n/a
Actual 3.3%
Prior 3.3%
Revised n/a

As expected, Fed is OK with this, but may be giving it too much weight, as it may be the last inflation indicator to move in this cycle.

2008-01-31 Chicago Purchasing Manager

Chicago Purchasing Manager (Jan)

Survey 52.0
Actual 51.5
Prior 56.6
Revised 56.4

Still above 50, not the stuff of recession yet.

2008-01-31 Help Wanted Index

Help Wanted Index (Dec)

Survey 20
Actual 22
Prior 21
Revised n/a

Very small uptick from a very low level.

2008-01-31 NAPM-Milwaukee

NAPM-Milwaukee (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 58.0
Prior 62.0
Revised n/a

No recession here, yet.

♥

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