Tag Archives: U. of Michigan Confidence

2009-05-01 USER

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U of Michigan Confidence (Apr F)

Survey 61.9
Actual 65.1
Prior 61.9
Revised n/a

 
Karim writes:

  • Final April rises to 65.1 from prelim 61.9
  • Inflation expectations edge down from 3.0% to 2.8% for 1yr fwd; edge up from 2.7% to 2.8% for 5yr fwd

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U of Michigan Confidence TABLE Inflation Expectations (Apr F)

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Factory Orders YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -21.6%
Prior -19.7%
Revised n/a

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Factory Orders MoM (Mar)

Survey -0.6%
Actual -0.9%
Prior 1.8%
Revised 0.7%

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Factory Orders TABLE 1 (Mar)

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Factory Orders TABLE 2 (Mar)

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Factory Orders TABLE 3 (Mar)

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ISM Manufacturing (Apr)

Survey 38.4
Actual 40.1
Prior 36.3
Revised n/a

 
Karim writes:

  • In line with signal provided by Chicago PMI yesterday. Improvement to a still contractionary level; orders boosted by some new found availability of cash/credit, though not all the way back (see anecdote below).

    • All sub-components up;16 or 17 industries still contracting.

Commodities Up in Price

Copper is the only commodity reported up in price.

Commodities Down in Price

Aluminum; Aluminum Based Products; Caustic Soda; Corrugated Containers; Fuel Surcharges; Natural Gas; Scrap Metal; Steel; and Steel Products.

Commodities in Short Supply

No commodities are reported in short supply.

  • “International customers are having trouble getting cash for new orders, even though they need/want the equipment.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • “Starting to see some signs of increased production and demand from some automotive customers.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • “Business conditions continue to be soft, but agriculture-related products are still quite bullish.” (Machinery)
  • “We are optimistic that things will change for the better in 3Q.” (Chemical Products)
  • “Starting to hear of slight upticks in orders from some sectors of our business but not all.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)

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ISM Prices Paid (Apr)

Survey 34.0
Actual 32.0
Prior 31.0
Revised n/a


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2009-03-13 USER

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Trade Balance (Jan)

Survey -$38.0B
Actual -$36.0B
Prior -$39.9B
Revised n/a

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Exports MoM (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -5.7%
Prior -5.8%
Revised n/a

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Imports MoM (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -6.7%
Prior -5.8%
Revised n/a

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Exports YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -16.4%
Prior -9.3%
Revised n/a

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Imports YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -22.8%
Prior -15.4%
Revised n/a

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Trade Balance ALLX (Jan)

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Import Price Index MoM (Feb)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -0.2%
Prior -1.1%
Revised -1.2%

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Import Price Index YoY (Feb)

Survey -13.5%
Actual -12.8%
Prior -12.5%
Revised -12.5%

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Import Price Index ALLX 1 (Feb)

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Import Price Index ALLX 2 (Feb)

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U of Michigan Confidence (Mar P)

Survey 55.0
Actual 56.6
Prior 56.3
Revised n/a

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U of Michigan TABLE Inflation Expectations (Mar P)


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2009-02-27 USER

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GDP QoQ Annualized (4Q P)

Survey -5.4%
Actual -6.2%
Prior -3.8%
Revised n/a

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GDP YoY Annualized Real (4Q P)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.8%
Prior 0.7%
Revised n/a

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GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (4Q P)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.2%
Prior 3.3%
Revised n/a

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GDP Price Index (4Q)

Survey -0.1%
Actual 0.5%
Prior -0.1%
Revised n/a

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Core PCE QoQ (4Q)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 0.8%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

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GDP ALLX (4Q P)

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Personal Consumption (4Q)

Survey -3.7%
Actual -4.3%
Prior -3.5%
Revised n/a

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Feb)

Survey 33.0
Actual 34.2
Prior 33.3
Revised n/a

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NAPM Milwaukee (Feb)

Survey 32.0
Actual 29.0
Prior 33.0
Revised n/a

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U of Michigan Confidence (Feb F)

Survey 56.0
Actual 56.3
Prior 56.2
Revised n/a

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U of Michigan TABLE Inflation Expectations (Feb F)


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2009-01-30 USER

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GDP QoQ Annualized (4Q A)

Survey -5.5%
Actual -3.8%
Prior -0.5%
Revised n/a

 
Karim writes:

Better than expected at -3.8% due to inventory build.

Here is the GDP math:

Private consumption (-2.5%) + Business Fixed Investment (-3.1%) + Government (+0.4%) + Net Exports (+0.1%) + Chg in Inventories (+1.3%)

  • Real final sales of -5.1% were consistent with estimates.
  • Business sector overestimated domestic demand, thereby accounting for the inventory build (should reverse in Q1).
  • Core PCE deflator slowed from 2.4% to 0.6%.
  • Within investment, both housing (-23.6%) and equipment/software (-27.8%) were very weak.

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GDP YoY Annualized Real (4Q A)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.2%
Prior -0.7%
Revised n/a

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GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (4Q A)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.7%
Prior 3.3%
Revised n/a

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GDP Price Index (4Q)

Survey 0.4%
Actual -0.1%
Prior 3.9%
Revised n/a

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Core PCE QoQ (4Q)

Survey 1.0%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 2.4%
Revised n/a

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GDP ALLX 1 (4Q)

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GDP ALLX 2 (4Q)

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Personal Consumption (4Q)

Survey -3.5%
Actual -3.5%
Prior -3.8%
Revised n/a

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Employment Cost Index (4Q)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 0.5%
Prior 0.7%
Revised n/a

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Employment Cost Index ALLX (4Q)

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -21.59%
Prior -20.14%
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 199.39
Prior 206.73
Revised n/a

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Jan)

Survey 34.9
Actual 33.3
Prior 34.1
Revised 35.1

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NAPM Milwaukee (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 33.0
Prior 30.0
Revised n/a

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U of Michigan Confidence (Jan F)

Survey 61.9
Actual 61.2
Prior 61.9
Revised n/a

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U of Michigan TABLE Inflation Expectations (Jan F)


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2009-01-16 USER

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Consumer Price Index MoM (Dec)

Survey -0.9%
Actual -0.7%
Prior -1.7%
Revised n/a

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CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Dec)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

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Consumer Price Index YoY (Dec)

Survey -0.2%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 1.1%
Revised n/a

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CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Dec)

Survey 1.8%
Actual 1.8%
Prior 2.0%
Revised n/a

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CPI Core Index SA (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 216.816
Prior 216.849
Revised n/a

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Consumer Price Index NSA (Dec)

Survey 210.210
Actual 210.228
Prior 212.425
Revised n/a

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Consumer Price Index TABLE 1 (Dec)

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Consumer Price Index TABLE 2 (Dec)

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Consumer Price Index TABLE 3 (Dec)

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Net Long Term TIC Flows (Nov)

Survey $15.0B
Actual -$21.7B
Prior $1.5B
Revised -$0.4B

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Total Net TIC Flows (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual $56.8B
Prior $286.3B
Revised $260.6B

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Industrial Production MoM (Dec)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -2.0%
Prior -0.6%
Revised -1.3%

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Industrial Production YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -5.5%
Prior -4.5%
Revised n/a

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Capacity Utilization (Dec)

Survey 74.5%
Actual 73.6%
Prior 75.4%
Revised 75.2%

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Capacity Utilization TABLE 1 (Dec)

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Capacity Utilization TABLE 2 (Dec)

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Capacity Utilization TABLE 3 (Dec)

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U of Michigan Confidence (Jan P)

Survey 59.0
Actual 61.9
Prior 60.1
Revised n/a

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U of Michigan TABLE Inflation Expectations (Jan P )


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2008-08-29 US Economic Releases

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Personal Income MoM (Jul)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.7%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.2%
Prior 5.5%
Revised n/a

Still at higher levels than before the rebates and far from a consumer collapse.

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Personal Income TABLE 1 (Jul)

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Personal Income TABLE 2 (Jul)

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Personal Spending MoM (Jul)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

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Personal Spending YoY (Jul)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

Doesn’t look all that bad to me.

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PCE Deflator YOY (Jul)

Survey 4.5%
Actual 4.5%
Prior 4.1%
Revised 4.0%

This is not the kind of chart the Fed wants to see.

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PCE Core MoM (Jul)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

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PCE Core YoY (Jul)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 2.4%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

Neither is this.

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PCE ALLX 1 (Jul)

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PCE ALLX 2 (Jul)

Karim writes:

  • Not much to alter Fed’s view or likely course with this data
  • Real PCE down -0.3% m/m for July, in line with expectations. Nominal PCE up 0.2%.
  • Personal income down 0.7%, again as expected, and due to drop in government transfers (fiscal package ended)
  • Core PCE deflator up 0.3% m/m and 2.4% y/y. At Jackson Hole, Bernanke stated he expected inflation to ‘moderate later this year and next’, meaning he still sees a few more months of possible upward pressure.

Yes, and he has been saying he expects headline inflation to moderate at every speaking event for the last few years.

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 230.00
Prior 233.37
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual -17.15%
Prior -15.60%
Revised n/a

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Aug)

Survey 50.0
Actual 57.9
Prior 50.8
Revised n/a

Upside surprise here.

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Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE 1 (Aug)

Prices paid still way high; big dip in employment.

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Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE 2 (Aug)

Karim writes:

  • Chicago PMI rises from 50.8 to 57.9; but orders and production components (each up sharply) at odds with employment component (down sharply), so report to be taken with a grain of salt.

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U of Michigan Confidence (Aug F)

Survey 62.0
Actual 63.0
Prior 61.7
Revised n/a

Karim writes:

  • Final UMICH survey for August shows minor improvement in confidence (61.7 to 63.0) and no change in inflation expectations components.
  • ISM and payrolls next week to weigh more heavily

Confidence turning up with the rebates.

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U of Michigan Consumer Attitudes TABLE (Aug F)

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Inflation Expectations 1yr Fwd (Aug F)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.8%
Prior 5.1%
Revised n/a

The Fed worries these will get embedded.

Personally, I don’t see inflation as a function of expectations but they do.

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Inflation Expectations 5yr Fwd (Aug 5)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.2%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

Too high still.

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NAPM-Milwaukee (Aug)

Survey 44.0
Actual 43.0
Prior 44.0
Revised n/a

A bit worse than expected but still off the bottom.

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NAPM-Milwaukee ALLX (Aug)


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2008-08-15 US Economic Releases

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Empire Manufacturing (Aug)

Survey -4.0
Actual 2.8
Prior -4.9
Revised n/a

Yet another series that could be making a comeback, albeit from very low levels.

Even the work week went up.

Prices paid still way high, and prices received high and moved higher.

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Empire Manufacturing ALLX (Aug)

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Net Long-term TIC Flows (Jun)

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Total Net TIC Flows (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual $51.1B
Prior -$2.5B
Revised $12.3B

Should be slowing with trade flows reversing.

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TIC ALLX (Jun)

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TIC TABLE 1 (Jun)

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TIC TABLE 2 (Jun)

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TIC TABLE 3 (Jun)

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Industrial Production MoM (Jul)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.5%
Revised 0.4%

A little better than expected.

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Industrial Production YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.1%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

Certainly not a collapse.

Being helped by the relatively weak USD.

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Capacity Utilization (Jul)

Survey 79.8%
Actual 79.9%
Prior 79.9%
Revised 79.8%

No collapse here either.

The Fed’s counting on slack to bring prices down.

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Capacity Utilization TABLE 2 (Jul)

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Capacity Utilization TABLE 3 (Jul)

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U of Michigan Confidence (Aug P)

Survey 62.0
Actual 61.7
Prior 61.2
Revised n/a

This too looks like it has bottomed from very low levels.

‘Inflation’ still hurting confidence.


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2008-07-25 US Economic Releases

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Durable Goods Orders MoM (Jun)

Survey -0.3%
Actual 0.8%
Prior 0.0%
Revised 0.1%

Better than expected, partially because fiscal and government is kicking in harder than expected.

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Durable Goods Orders YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.3%
Prior -2.7%
Revised n/a

Still has turned up in a meaningful way, but moving away from recession levels.

When car sales normalize we’ll see a further boost.

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Durables Ex Transportation (Jun)

Survey -0.2%
Actual 2.0%
Prior -0.8%
Revised -0.5%

Headline numbers being held down by car sales.

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Durable Goods Orders ALLX (Jun)

Durables better than expected, likely due to companies taking advantage of new accelerated depreciation allowance

  • Capital goods orders ex-defense and aircraft up 1.4%
  • Defense orders up 30% in past 2mths, so production/shipments likely to improve for some manufacturers in coming months

    • Small appliances up as well. Seems some rebate checks went for down payments on appliances and home improvements.

    Electronics and consumer goods down.

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    U of Michigan Confidence (Jul F)

    Survey 56.4
    Actual 61.2
    Prior 56.6
    Revised n/a

    Better than expected and a possible bottom from a very low level.

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    U of Michigan Confidence ALLX (Jul F)

    Gas prices ‘stabilizing’ likely lead to the modest improvement in the Michigan survey and the ebbing of inflation expectations:

    • Headline confidence rose from 56.6 to 61.2

    Don’t underestimate the fiscal package!

    • 5-10yr inflation expectations fell from 3.4% to 3.2%

    One year steady at 5.1%.

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    Inflation Expectations 1yr Forward (Jul F)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 5.1%
    Prior 5.1%
    Revised n/a

    Two months over 5% is very troubling for the Fed. They see this as a direct cause of inflation.

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    Inflation Expectations 5yr Forward (Jul F)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 3.2%
    Prior 3.4%
    Revised n/a

    Down some but still way too high.

    The Fed wants this back to their long term target of something under 2.5%.

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    New Home Sales (Jun)

    Survey 503K
    Actual 530K
    Prior 512K
    Revised 533K

    Better than expected and last month revised up as well.

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    New Home Sales – Total for Sale (Jun)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 425K
    Prior 448K
    Revised n/a

    Sales can quickly be stifled by dwindling actual inventories.

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    New Home Sales MoM (Jun)

    Survey -1.8%
    Actual -0.6%
    Prior -2.5%
    Revised -1.7%

    Better than expected and from an upwardly revised May number.

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    New Home Sales YoY (Jun)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -33.2%
    Prior -37.8%
    Revised n/a

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    New Home Sales Median Price (Jun)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 230.9
    Prior 227.7
    Revised n/a

    The decline may be about over.

    Median prices are already rising from the lows.

    Watch for a shortage of new homes.

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    New Home Sales TABLE 1 (Jun)

    The three month average has turned higher.

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    New Home Sales TABLE 2 (Jun)

    • New home sales down 0.6% m/m and prices down 2% y/y

    But higher than expected at 530,000, and down from May because May was revised up to 533,000 from 512,000.

    Also, inventories down and prices up, and prices getting very close to being up year over year:

    New home sales fall but stronger than expected

    by Mark Felsenthal

    Sales of newly constructed U.S. single-family homes were stronger than expected in June, falling 0.6 percent to a 530,000 annual pace, a government report showed on Friday, providing a glimmer of hope for the beaten-down housing market.

    Economists polled by Reuters were expecting sales to slow to a 500,000 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate from a previously reported 512,000 pace in May. May’s sales rate was revised up to 533,000, the Commerce Department said.

    The inventory of homes available for sale shrank 5.3 percent to 426,000, the lowest since December 2004. The June sales pace put the supply of homes available for sale at 10 months’ worth.

    The median sales price rose to $230,900 from $227,700 from May, but was down 2 percent from a year earlier, the government said.


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2008-07-11 US Economic Releases

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Trade Balance (May)

Survey -$62.5B
Actual -$59.8B
Prior -$60.9B
Revised -$60.5B

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Trade Balance (May)

Seems to be working its way lower, but rising import prices are a moving target.
Without CBs and monetary authorities buying to help their exporters, I don’t think the rest of the world wants to accumulate $60 billion a month of financial assets, which means the USD will continue to fall and US prices will continue higher until the real trade gap falls to desired levels.

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Trade Balance Ex Petroleum (May)

Survey n/a
Actual -$26.636B
Prior -$25.724B
Revised n/a

This has come down quite a bit and should continue to fall over time.

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Exports YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 17.8%
Prior 19.6%
Revised n/a

Booming!

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Imports YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 12.5%
Prior 13.6%
Revised n/a

Working their way to lower rates of increase, even with energy prices rising.

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Import Price Index MoM (Jun)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.3%
Revised 2.6%

‘Inflation’ pouring in through the open window.

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Import Price Index YoY (Jun)

Survey 18.6%
Actual 20.5%
Prior 17.8%
Revised 18.8%

Inflation pouring in through the open window.

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U. of Michigan Confidence (Jul P)

Survey 55.5
Actual 56.6
Prior 56.4
Revised –

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U. of Michigan Confidence TABLE (Jul P)

Inflation hurting confidence even as current conditions have improved some.

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Inflation Expectations 1yr Fwd (Jul P)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.3%
Prior 5.1%
Revised n/a

Fed considers this reason for alarm.

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Inflation Expectations 5y Fwd (Jul P)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.4%
Prior 3.4%
Revised n/a

Way too high for the Fed and going the wrong way.

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Monthly Budget Statement (Jun)

Survey $34.0B
Actual $50.7B
Prior $27.5B
Revised n/a

Haven’t seen the detail. This can be very volatile due to timing issues.


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2008-06-27 Daily US Economic Releases

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Personal Income (May)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 1.9%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.3%

Higher than expected as fiscal rebates kick in, and last month revised up some as well.

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Personal Spending (May)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 0.8%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.4%

Also higher than expected with consumers spending a higher % of fiscal rebates than expected.

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PCE Deflator YoY (May)

Survey 3.2%
Actual 3.1%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

A bit lower than expected.

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PCE Core MoM (May)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

Also lower than expected.

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PCE Core YoY (May)

Survey 2.2%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

This is lower than expected as well.

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Karim writes:

  • Core PCE deflator up 0.1% in May, unch at 2.1% y/y.
  • Headline deflator up 0.4% and rises from 3.1% to 3.2%.
  • Personal income up 1.8% due to 25.6% rise in ‘other’ government transfer payments (tax rebates); wage and salary income up 0.3% after -0.1% read prior month
  • Personal spending up 0.4%

Yesterday Kohn mentioned there were only a few signs of higher headline inflation ’embedding’ themselves into core; this report another sign of that.

U of Michigan Confidence (Jun F)

Survey 56.7
Actual 56.4
Prior 56.7
Revised n/a

Karim Writes:

  • Drop from May to June (59.8 to 56.4); 3rd lowest reading in 46yr history of survey.
  • Record low (21%) reported income gains, reflecting job losses and housing and equity wealth declines.
  • Rising food and energy prices also contributed to worst buying climate survey for durables since 1980.
  • Current conditions fell 5.7pts.
  • Expectations component fell 2pts; this now 38% off of Jan 2007 high; survey report stated that 25-35% drop in expectations was typical in advance of Post-WW 2 recessions.
  • 1yr fwd inflation expectations drop from 5.2% to 5.1% in June; 5yr fwd unch at 3.4%.



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