ECB Archive

ECB, Fed, Rail traffic

Looks like they are again making hawkish noises, taking the lead of the Fed: ECB wary of further action despite uncertain future By: Balazs Koranyi and John O’Donnell Jan 14 (Reuters) * Many governors sceptical of need for further action in near term * Governors urge countries to act instead with reform ...Read More

ECB comment, Retail Sales, Fed Atlanta, Oil comment

Seems there’s no wisdom on the topic of ‘money’ anywhere of consequence: No ‘plan B’ for ECB despite still low inflation: Praet Jan 6 (Reuters) — Executive Board member Peter Praet said various factors, notably low oil prices and less buoyant emerging economies, meant it was taking longer to reach the goal ...Read More

Comments on Draghi NY Speech

Excerpts from the Speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Economic Club of New York, 4 December 2015: There is no particular limit to how we can deploy any of our tools. True- limits are political And in this context it is important to recall that we operate under a clear ...Read More

Factory orders, ISM non mfg, ECB news

Yes, they were up, but there is a ‘seasonal’ aspect to it, including an air show, so the year over year chart is a bit more indicative of what’s going on and it’s still in negative territory. Also, vehicle orders declined, and inventories remained at levels that beg continuing production cuts. Factory ...Read More

Draghi Comments, Global Comments

ECB will do what is needed to keep inflation target on track: Draghi By Stephen Jewkes Oct 31 (Reuters) — “If we are convinced that our medium-term inflation target is at risk, we will take the necessary actions,” ECB president Draghi told Il Sole 24 Ore. “We will see whether a further ...Read More

Cartoon, US International Trade, India, Redbook Retail Sales, China Comments, Consumer Confidence

As previously discussed, trade deficit increasing: United States : International trade in goods Definition The Census Bureau is now publishing an advance report on U.S. international trade in goods. The BEA will incorporate these data into its estimates of exports and imports for the advance GDP estimates. This is expected to reduce ...Read More

China, Germany, Productivity, NFIB Index, Redbook, Wholesale Trade

A few thoughts: China’s US Tsy holding had been falling perhaps because they were selling $ to buy Yuan to keep it within in the prior band. Pretty much all exporting nation’s currencies have already weakened vs the $, including the Yen and Euro, so this is a bit of a ‘catch ...Read More

LA Port Traffic, Greek Banks, Recession Without Financial Crisis

Another weak export report. No mention of the drop in oil prices reduced foreign incomes. LA area Port Traffic: Weakness in June by Bill McBride on 7/20/2015 09:57:00 AM Note: There were some large swings in LA area port traffic earlier this year due to labor issues that were settled on February ...Read More

WRKO The Voice of Boston Radio Interview

Click here to listen to my interview on WRKO The Voice of Boston on July 17th ...Read More

macro update

At the beginning of 2013 the US let the FICA tax reduction and some of the Bush tax cuts expire and then in April the sequesters kicked totally some $250 billion of proactive deficit reduction. This cut 2013 growth from what might have been 4% to just over half that, peaking in ...Read More