Unless home prices fall quite a bit more there will still be upward pressure on OER (owner equivalent rents), a major component of core CPI.
Tag Archives: CPI
Kohn speech
After the speech, crude up $1.61 and back over $100. Yields down on fixed income as markets anticipate Fed won’t respond to inflation anytime soon: February 26, 2008 The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy (SNIP) Several major developments are shaping current economic performance, the outlook, and the conduct of monetary policy. The most prominent of […]
2008-02-20 US Economic Releases
MBAVPRCH Index (Feb 15) Survey n/a Actual 357.6 Prior 403.9 Revised n/a MBAVREFI Index (Feb 15) Survey n/a Actual 3533.8 Prior 4901.5 Revised n/a These look very weak. Banks are not included, so there’s a chance the banks could be taking market share from the mortgage bankers. Consumer Price Index MoM (Jan) Survey 0.3% Actual […]
Bernanke preview
If inflation is now above Bernanke’s comfort zone, as per Yellen who has been more dovish than Bermanke, and above their long-term target of maybe 2%, it can only be brought down by maintaining an output gap greater than zero under the mainstream theory they all subscribe to. Particularly with the negative supply shocks of […]
Updated January 31 month end report
Please excuse the mix of Bloomberg and Valance graphs. Comments welcome. Went blurry eyed trying to organize it all. Markets reacted strongly to Friday’s -17,000 non-farm payroll number. Several sources called it the first negative payroll number in 4 years. How quickly they forget the first negative number was the initial August number of -4,000 […]
EU data
stagflation there too Actual Forecast Previous 6:00am EUR CPI y/y (p) 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 6:00am EUR Consumer Confidence -12 -10 -9 6:00am EUR Unemployment Rate 7.2% 7.1% 7.2% ♥
Valance Weekly Economic Reports: Global News Highlights
Same twin themes taking hold – weakness and inflation. Highlights: US Mixed data EU Softening data could change ECB’s inflation rhetoric JN CPI Higher on food, energy prices; Mixed data continues UK Housing Market Continued To Show Weakness AU Businesses Less Confident About Q1 economic outlook ♥
2008-01-25 Balance of Risks Update
Mainstream economics would put it this way: Inflation risk to long term growth vs short term growth risks So on the inflation side: CPI year over year up to 4.1% Core CPI 2.4% year over year, 2.9% month over month (2.5% high end of Fed’s comfort zone) Headline PCE deflator 3.6% year over year, core […]
Home prices and OER
Looks like it will take a very large drop in home prices to slow the ‘pull’ on owner’s equivalent rent (the basis for the CPI housing component). ♥
Re: Bernanke
(email) On 11 Jan 2008 11:17:34 +0000, Prof. P. Arestis wrote: >  Dear Warren, > >  Many thanks. Some good comments below. > >  The paragraph that I think is of some importance is this: > > > The Committee will, of course, be carefully evaluating incoming > > information bearing on the economic outlook. […]