Kohn speech

After the speech, crude up $1.61 and back over $100. Yields down on fixed income as markets anticipate Fed won’t respond to inflation anytime soon: February 26, 2008 The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy (SNIP) Several major developments are shaping current economic performance, the outlook, and the conduct of monetary policy. The most prominent of […]

2008-02-20 US Economic Releases

MBAVPRCH Index (Feb 15) Survey n/a Actual 357.6 Prior 403.9 Revised n/a MBAVREFI Index (Feb 15) Survey n/a Actual 3533.8 Prior 4901.5 Revised n/a These look very weak. Banks are not included, so there’s a chance the banks could be taking market share from the mortgage bankers. Consumer Price Index MoM (Jan) Survey 0.3% Actual […]

Bernanke preview

If inflation is now above Bernanke’s comfort zone, as per Yellen who has been more dovish than Bermanke, and above their long-term target of maybe 2%, it can only be brought down by maintaining an output gap greater than zero under the mainstream theory they all subscribe to. Particularly with the negative supply shocks of […]

Valance Weekly Economic Reports: Global News Highlights

Same twin themes taking hold – weakness and inflation. Highlights: US Mixed data EU Softening data could change ECB’s inflation rhetoric JN CPI Higher on food, energy prices; Mixed data continues UK Housing Market Continued To Show Weakness AU Businesses Less Confident About Q1 economic outlook ♥

2008-01-25 Balance of Risks Update

Mainstream economics would put it this way: Inflation risk to long term growth vs short term growth risks So on the inflation side: CPI year over year up to 4.1% Core CPI 2.4% year over year, 2.9% month over month (2.5% high end of Fed’s comfort zone) Headline PCE deflator 3.6% year over year, core […]

Re: Bernanke

(email) On 11 Jan 2008 11:17:34 +0000, Prof. P. Arestis wrote: >   Dear Warren, > >   Many thanks. Some good comments below. > >   The paragraph that I think is of some importance is this: > > >  The Committee will, of course, be carefully evaluating incoming > >  information bearing on the economic outlook. […]