Re: Mishkin signal?

[Skip to the end] (an email exchange) > >   On Tue, Jun 10, 2008 at 8:12 AM, anonymous wrote: > >   Fisher’s remark induces one to wonder if Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is >   correct in stating that Fed policy is now being concocted from Dallas. > >   The recent spate of criticism directed at Bernanke […]

Statement from Meltzer

[Skip to the end] I like this not so much for his suggestion as for his assessment of the Fed. This both expresses the market view of the Fed and the Fed’s own expressed concern that their previous actions could contribute to elevated inflation expectations. “I think they should put interest rates up and worry […]

Fed Speak: Yellen the Dove

[Skip to the end] There have been a lot of Fed speakers; so, I’ve selected a few comments on Yellen’s speech, as she has been deemed the most dovish Fed bank president. Note the shift in rhetoric from ‘market functioning’ to inflation. Of course, the FOMC’s idea of getting tough and fighting inflation has been […]

Yellen the Dove on inflation

“Inflation is a problem,” she said. Yet the problem isn’t excessive demand, rising wages, or a tight labor market, but “negative supply shocks.” Once the shocks wear off, the inflation rate can’t be sustained in the long run without a pick-up in wage growth, she said. “There’s no textbook answer to what monetary policy should […]

Reuters: Yellen the Dove turing more hawkish

Yellen: Fed faces unpleasant mix on prices, growth by Ros Krasny CHICAGO (Reuters) – San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen said on Friday that the U.S. central bank faces an “unpleasant combination” of risks to inflation and growth in setting interest rate policy. “The U.S. economy is particularly exposed to downside risks from […]

February 19 recap

Might be a revealing day coming up. I’m watching for markets to begin to link higher oil prices to the potential for higher interest rates, rather than the reverse as has been the case since August. With oil up to the mid 97 range this am, the question is whether short term interest rates move […]

Bernanke preview

If inflation is now above Bernanke’s comfort zone, as per Yellen who has been more dovish than Bermanke, and above their long-term target of maybe 2%, it can only be brought down by maintaining an output gap greater than zero under the mainstream theory they all subscribe to. Particularly with the negative supply shocks of […]

The full employment recession is spreading

Looks like the US full-employment recession is spreading: UK jobless rate falls to 5.2 percent in latest quarter The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom in the last quarter of 2007 fell to 5.2 percent, down from 5.4 percent in the previous quarter, the government said Wednesday. Average earnings, including bonuses, rose 3.7 percent in […]

Another Yellen speech

Prospects for the U.S. Economy in 2008 (intro remarks snipped) Today I’d like to talk about developments in the economy and in monetary policy, two items that have definitely been making the news lately. On January 22, the Federal Open Market Committee cut its main policy rate—the federal funds rate—by three-quarters of a percentage point. […]

Oil AND interest rates up?

It’s only been a few hours, but seems the first time since August higher oil doesn’t mean lower interest rates, and might even mean higher rates. Up until now, higher oil prices meant a weaker economy and therefore Fed rate cuts. I’ve been watching for a shift to higher oil prices meaning higher inflation and […]