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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun)
| Survey |
-60K |
| Actual |
-62K |
| Prior |
-49K |
| Revised |
-62K |
Looking soft but not collapsing.
With productivity increases, GDP can remain positive with flat to down job creation.
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Unemployment Rate (Jun)
| Survey |
5.4% |
| Actual |
5.5% |
| Prior |
5.5% |
| Revised |
n/a |
Working its way higher, but this is a lagging indicator.
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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Jun)
| Survey |
-30K |
| Actual |
-33K |
| Prior |
-26K |
| Revised |
-22K |
Slowly working its way lower in a multi-year trend.
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Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Jun)
| Survey |
0.3% |
| Actual |
0.3% |
| Prior |
0.3% |
| Revised |
n/a |
Apparently ‘well-anchored’.
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Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Jun)
| Survey |
3.4% |
| Actual |
3.4% |
| Prior |
3.5% |
| Revised |
n/a |
Still moving lower with seemingly along with the labor weakness.
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Average Weekly Hours (Jun)
| Survey |
33.7 |
| Actual |
33.7 |
| Prior |
33.7 |
| Revised |
n/a |
This is falling off as well and indicates a good sized loss of labor hours.
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Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 28)
| Survey |
385K |
| Actual |
404K |
| Prior |
384K |
| Revised |
388K |
Working its way higher but still not at recession levels, and the floods might have disorted it some.
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Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun 21)
| Survey |
3125K |
| Actual |
3116K |
| Prior |
3139K |
| Revised |
3135K |
Rate of increase seems to be slowing.
Karim writes:
-62k decline in nfp in line with expectations but details on the soft side
- Net revisions -52k
- Unemployment rate stays at 5.5%
- Index of aggregate hours drops again (-0.1%); 3mth annualized rate now -0.9%. If hours fall 1%, that is the equivalent of about a 1.4mm decline in jobs from a labor income perspective: Labor income = jobs x average hourly earnings x total hours worked.
- Total augmented unemployment rate (another measure of slack that includes those who have dropped out of labor force but indicate they would like to work) rises from 9.7% to 9.9%, a new cycle high.
- Median duration of unemployment rises from 8.3 weeks to 10.0 weeks.
- One piece of improvement was in diffusion index rising from 45.6 to 46.9
- Birth-death model added 177k jobs, 29k in construction (caution that these are nsa whereas payrolls are sa)
Claims rise from 388k to 404k; 4wk avg rises from 379k to 390k.
Continuing claims fall from 3135k to 3116k; 4wk average rises from 3102k to 3110k
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ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (Jun)
| Survey |
51.0 |
| Actual |
48.2 |
| Prior |
51.7 |
| Revised |
n/a |
Seems to be back near its longer term trend line that was headed lower, and prices keep moving up alarmingly.
Karim writes:
Overall index falls from 51.7 to 48.2 in June.
Activity details also weak and prices paid higher:
- Prices paid 77 to 84.5
- Activity 53.6 to 49.9
- New orders 53.6 to 48.6
- Employment 48.7 to 43.8 (lowest in 6yr history of series)
- Export orders 54 to 52
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