Category Archives: UK

U.K. Daily – CIPS May Manufacturing Index Falls to 20-Month Low

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My Q2 guestimate for the tipping point may not have been too far off

U.K. CIPS May Manufacturing Index Falls to 20-Month Low (Bloomberg)

A U.K. manufacturing index, based on a survey by Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply, declined to 52.1 in May from a downwardly revised 54.4 in April. “Domestic market weakness was the main drag on order books and output,” Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit, said in the statement. “This was exacerbated by the additional bank holidays in late April, which fell during the early part of the latest survey period, and ongoing supply-chain disruption following the Japanese earthquake.” Producers of consumers goods and small-scale manufacturers were hit hardest last month as output and new orders fell for the first time since the middle of 2009, CIPS said.

U.K. April Mortgage Approvals Fall to Lowest in Four Months (Bloomberg)

Lenders granted 45,166 loans to buy homes, compared with a revised 47,145 the previous month, the Bank of England said. The April figure is the lowest since December. The Bank of England figures show net mortgage lending rose 739 million pounds ($1.22 billion) in April and gross lending amounted to 11.2 billion pounds. Consumer credit rose a net 504 million pounds in April. Credit-card lending increased 347 million pounds, the most since February 2010, while personal loans and overdrafts rose 157 million pounds. A measure of M4 money-supply growth that the central bank uses to assess the effectiveness of its asset purchases fell 2 percent in the three months through April on an annualized basis.

U.K. Inflation May Be Hurting Economic Growth, Sentance Says (Bloomberg)

Former Bank of England policy maker Andrew Sentance said U.K. inflation at more than twice the central bank’s 2 percent goal may be hurting economic expansion.
“The fact that inflation is high is not necessarily associated with strong growth,” he said in an interview with Sky News late yesterday, marking his final day as a member of the Monetary Policy Committee. “In some ways inflation is squeezing out the growth of the economy because it is squeezing people’s disposable incomes.”

Sentance, who will today be replaced by former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economist Ben Broadbent, said interest rates need to start going up “gradually” now to curb consumer price growth and prevent “much sharper” rate increases in the future.

He also said the central bank’s view of inflation didn’t put enough weight on the influence of the international economy, commodity costs and the decline of the pound.

“I think we should revisit our thinking on the economy,” he said. “We went through a period where there seemed to be a very predictable relationship between growth and inflation. Now we’re in a much more complex situation.”

Sentance said it was difficult to judge how long the impact of the pound’s weakness on inflation would last, as it hadn’t been offset by the impact of the recession holding down prices and wages.

“The issue with the fall in the value of the pound is how big its effect will be and how long it will continue,” he said. “We’re an economy very open to international trade and the value of the pound affects the amount of competition on the markets, the way in which companies price in markets so I think we do have to take the value of the pound very seriously.”

U.K. Housing Transactions to Fall 5.2% This Year, CML Forecasts (Bloomberg)

U.K. housing transactions will probably fall 5.2 percent this year before rising in 2012 as the economy experiences a “weak and patchy recovery,” the Council of Mortgage Lenders said.

Transactions will fall to 840,000 this year from 886,000 in 2010, the London-based group said in a report on its website today. They will rise to 900,000 in 2012, matching the level in 2008. Gross mortgage advances will amount to 140 billion pounds this year and 150 billion pounds in 2012, which compares with
253 billion pounds in 2008.

The CML sees the Bank of England keeping its key interest rate at 0.5 percent for “most” of this year before starting a “modest” tightening cycle that will continue through 2012.

“The prospect of a gentler upward profile for interest rates significantly mitigates the adverse impact on household budgets of weak growth in incomes, and this will help borrowers keep up with their mortgage payments,” it said.

U.K. Consumer Spending Rebound Likely to Be Very Slow, FT Says (Bloomberg)

U.K. consumer spending is likely to recover more slowly than in any post-recession period since 1830, the Financial Times reported, citing its own analysis of forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility.

Households are forecast to spend 5.4 percent more in 2015 than they did before the 2008 financial crisis; at the equivalent stages of the 1980s and 1990s recessions, spending was 20 percent and 15 percent higher, respectively, the newspaper said.
In the 18 significant U.K. recessions that have occurred since records began in 1830, consumer spending rose 12 percent above its previous peak within seven years, the FT said, citing Bank of England figures.

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BoC/BoE/RBA Comments

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Even with headline ‘inflation’ above comfort levels and recognizing the need to ‘manage inflation expectations’ under ‘expectations theory’ they all religiously believe, they seem to be sufficiently concerned about aggregate demand to make these kinds of dovish comments.

Conclusion: they’re understating the general weakness they’re sensing.

From Karim, my partner at Valance:


Karim writes:

Some important official comments from these 3 in last 24hrs:

Bank of Canada-Still dovish-Highlighting competitiveness issues due to stronger currency, under-representation in emerging markets, and commodity price gains acting as a brake on U.S. growth. No move in policy rate until Q4 at earliest and only to coincide with signal from Fed for higher rates. Excerpts from Carney speech yesterday:

  • Since only 10 per cent of Canada’s exports go to emerging economies and our non-commodity export market share in the BRICS has been almost halved over the past decade, activity in Canada does not benefit to the same extent as in past commodity booms driven by U.S. growth. The current situation is more akin to a supply shock for our dominant trading partner, with higher commodity prices acting as a net brake on growth. With oil prices up 50 per cent since last summer, the effect is material.
  • Investors looking to rebalance portfolios towards emerging markets could lead them to invest in proxies such as Australia and Canada.

Bank of England-Still dovish-Mervyn King shows no worry from inflation data today (higher than expected but virtually all due to airfares due to timing of late Easter-similar to Eur data) and new MPC Member Broadbent (replacing the uber-hawk Sentence) emphasizing downside risks to growth (higher savings rate, weak credit, Euro stresses). Base case is on hold through year-end.

  • King: As set out in my previous letter, the current high level of inflation reflects three main influences: the increase in the standard rate of VAT in January to 20%, higher energy prices and increases in import prices. Although the impact on inflation of these factors is difficult to quantify with precision, it is likely that had they not occurred, inflation would have been substantially lower and probably below the target…..Unemployment is high and wage growth is weak at around 2% a year. Money and credit growth are both very low. It is therefore possible that, as the temporary influence of the factors currently pushing up on inflation wanes, these downward pressures on inflation could drag inflation below the target.

RBA Minutes-Hawkish-Even though 2-speed economy (strong exports/trade; weak consumer), inflation forecast heading higher. Rate hike likely at June or July meeting. The sentence below didn’t appear at the prior RBA meeting in April.

  • …members judged that if economic conditions continued to evolve as expected, higher interest rates were likely to be required at some point if inflation was to remain consistent with the medium-term target.

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BOE’s King Says Higher Interest Rates Would Exacerbate Debt Woes

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Taking a page from the Fed’s playbook?

The BOE has seen the Fed effectively scare portfolio managers and speculators out of the dollar with QE, which they know does nothing apart from just that, and may in fact even be fundamentally supportive of the dollar.

So desirous of a weaker currency, why not make a knowingly silly statement like this and manipulate portfolio managers who don’t know any better into shedding pounds in this increasingly bizarre international display of managing expectations?

And even if I’m giving them far too much credit for cleverness, the result is the same none the less…

BOE’s King Says Higher Interest Rates Would Exacerbate Debt Woes

By Jim Brunsden

May 3 (Bloomberg) — Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said high debt levels pose “massive” economic challenges that would be exacerbated by higher interest rates.

“The economic consequences of high-level indebtedness now would become more severe if rates were to rise,” King said yesterday at a committee of the European Parliament in Brussels. “It is the main reason why interest rates are so low.”

Bank of England policy makers are split four ways over monetary policy. The central bank probably will leave the key interest rate at a record low of 0.5 percent at the next rate meeting on May 5, according to the median of 43 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

Last month, Andrew Sentance voted for an increase to 1 percent, Martin Weale and Spencer Dale for a quarter-percentage- point rise and Adam Posen for expansion of the bond-purchase program. The rest, including King, voted for no change.

“The problem of leverage, the sheer volume of debt in the economy, is still very large and this poses massive macro-economic challenges,” King said yesterday. “I think these macro-economic challenges will last many years.”

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U.K. Construction Grew Fastest in Eight Months in February

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While the austerity measures will bite, in the UK, like much of the world, automatic fiscal stabilizers (rising transfer payments and lower tax revenues) got their deficits up high enough to reverse the downturns in GDP, and deficits remain high enough for modest growth.

The UK had weather issues in December, which are reversing.

As the austerity measures continue to come on line, they will drain off some of the aggregate demand being added by the counter cyclical deficits and keep a damper on growth.

It’s just a guess, and there are other factors as well (oil prices, China slowdown, etc.) but I suspect the actual slowdown from the austerity is still down the road a piece.


UK Headlines:

U.K. Construction Grew Fastest in Eight Months in February
King Says Raising Rate to Make a Gesture Is Self-Defeating
RBC Says Stronger Pound Highlights View BOE’s King Faces Defeat
UK House Prices Stage Surprise Rise as Mortgage Approvals Also Up

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U.K. Retail Sales Advance at Fastest Pace in 10 Months, BRC Says

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The deficit is still plenty large enough for a decent expansion, so the year end weather setbacks could be reversed and then some before sufficient austerity sets in and works to reverse it all.

Hard to figure the timing for the cross currents.

Also, opening the borders to wealthy foreigners, as they recently announced they were doing, is a clever move to firm the currency and support the economy and asset prices.

UK Headlines

U.K. Retail Sales Advance at Fastest Pace in 10 Months, BRC Says
U.K. Housing-Price Gauge Increased in January on Supply Shortage
Osborne Says U.K. Bank Levy Increase to Raise 800 Million Pounds

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U.K. Service Industries Return to ‘Pre-Snow’ Growth

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Still looks to me like the govt deficit is plenty high enough to support at least modest gdp growth until the pro active austerity measures actually reduce it.

UK Headlines:

U.K. Service Industries Return to ‘Pre-Snow’ Growth

Inflation Could Force Bank of England to Raise Interest Rates, Says Deputy Governor Charlie Bean

UK Faces US-style Jobless Recovery, Says Institute for Fiscal Studies

Wealthy Britons Planning to Increase Spending in 2011, HSBC Says

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Fiscal Package

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Yes, at the better end of expectations, but still a small net tax increase as of year end. No actual relief for anyone.

And that’s best case. They haven’t actually passed it yet.

Austerity still going strong in the euro zone and the UK.

And China still working on slowing things down to fight inflation.

Oil prices are up which will slow things down some but not generate enough inflation for the Fed to care.

So doesn’t look like anything out there to move the needle on growth or inflation enough to get the Fed to hike any time soon.


Karim writes:

Definitely at the better end of expectations, for both the tax cuts and the unemployment benefits…

(CNN) — President Barack Obama presented congressional Democratic leaders Monday with a proposed deal with Republicans that would extend Bush-era tax cuts for two years and unemployment benefits for 13 months while also setting the estate tax at 35% for two years on inheritances worth more than $5 million, a senior Democratic source told CNN.

The deal also includes a temporary 2% reduction in the payroll tax to replace Obama’s “making work pay” tax credit from the 2009 economic stimulus package for lower-income Americans, the senior Democratic source said.

As currently crafted, the deal would prohibit amendments by either party, according to the source, who spoke on condition of not being identified by name.

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Time for England to complete the conquest of Ireland

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The UK conquest of Ireland began in 1169.

It’s time to finish the job.

All they have to do is offer the following:

Ireland converts all its public debt to sterling.

The UK Treasury takes over the responsibility for all of Ireland’s existing public debt.

(Ireland gets a clean start with no Irish govt. debt and not interest payments)

Ireland taxes and spends in sterling only and has a balanced budget requirement.

Ireland can borrow only for capital expenditures.

The UK Treasury guarantees all existing insured euro bank deposits in Irish banks.

Only sterling deposits are insured for new deposits.

Ireland runs a mirror tax code to the UK and keeps all of its tax revenues.

The UK agrees to fund Ireland’s with a pro rata/per capita share of any UK deficit spending.

St. Patrick’s Day is declared a UK national holiday and everyone over 21 gets a beer voucher.

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Pound Set for Pain as Cuts Push King to Print Money

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The UK is tightening fiscal policy while the CB is enacting QE. The market thinks that this will substantially weaken the pound, is that the correct logic

no. but drives short term portfolio shifting and specs

or is QE not real money printing and the tight fiscal is the real force to be reckoned with?

yes. but takes longer to bite.

I’m just wondering if the mkt is getting positioned the wrong way based on faulty logic. Any thoughts?

totally agreed! the trick is timing and vs what currency.

the euro has it’s own set of deflationary forces already in place.

the dollar looks over sold against something based on wrong way qe betting.

the pound selling has to be against something.

the only currency left is the yen, which may be where the flight to safety is going. Shorting the yen has also been the widow maker- more reason to believe it’s over bought.

And their trade flows aren’t so positive any more, and they have been sporadically selling it probably vs the dollar, adding to supply. And the prospects of meaningful fiscal tightening in Japan seem less than the UK, euro zone, or even the US.

so the home run may be the yen against the pound.

the other flight to quality currencies have been the commodity currencies which could correct substantially. The $A looks particularly over valued based on anecdotal purchasing power parity. a diet coke is $3 for example, but they are China’s coal mine.

again, it will be about timing.

if the pound does start firming against the yen fundamentally, which it should, it can go for a long time, so it’s probably not worth trying to call the exact bottom.

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