Currencies Archive

Mtg Purchase Apps, Chicago PMI, ADP, Euro Comment

This is still going nowhere, and, most recently, trending lower, and obviously not responding positively to the ultra low rates of the last several years: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights After surging in the prior week following the FOMC’s decision against a rate hike, mortgage activity fell back in the September 25 week. ...Read More

quick macro update

It all started when the FICA tax cuts and a few of the Bush tax reductions were allowed to expire at the end of 2012, followed by the sequesters a few months later 2013. That resulted in 2013 GDP growth of a bit less than 2% or so that might have been ...Read More

China, Germany, Productivity, NFIB Index, Redbook, Wholesale Trade

A few thoughts: China’s US Tsy holding had been falling perhaps because they were selling $ to buy Yuan to keep it within in the prior band. Pretty much all exporting nation’s currencies have already weakened vs the $, including the Yen and Euro, so this is a bit of a ‘catch ...Read More

WRKO The Voice of Boston Radio Interview

Click here to listen to my interview on WRKO The Voice of Boston on July 17th ...Read More

macro update

Saudis remain price setter: Main theme: deflationary biases Greece is a deflationary event, as EU aggregate demand is further restricted, with no sign of any possibility of fiscal relaxation. Oil fell as Saudis increased discounts, further reducing global capex and related asset prices. US oil production that gets sold counts as GDP, ...Read More

Greece loses the gambit

It now looks to me like Greece has lost the wrestling match. The other EU members are very sensitive to market reactions. The question was whether the EU economy needed Greece, and the answer is now looking more and more like ‘no’. Not a good position for Greece to find itself after ...Read More


Not much to say that hasn’t already been said. I saw nothing good coming out of a yes or no vote and I still see it that way. And watch for the follow up polls on the demographics of the vote- who voted, what they say they knew about what they voted ...Read More

Comments on Greece

So the euro is down a % or 2 because of the Greek debt drama. Generally currencies go down on debt drama when the debt is in a foreign currency and it’s feared the govt will have to sell local currency to get the fx to make the payments. For example, the ...Read More

Greece reading IOU’s to pay public sector workers

Yes, this is viable operationally, as it going back to drachma. However, there’s a lot that can go wrong, as demonstrated by prior episodes of inflation, high interest rates, high unemployment, and currency depreciation. Not to mention the temptation of the channels of mass corruption also too often employed in the past ...Read More

Euro area trade, Greece comment

The latest trade release is very euro friendly. The lower euro, forced down by selling and not by trade, has increased the euro area trade surplus and with sellers largely exhausted, the euro goes up until the trade surplus goes away.. So Tsipras rejected this latest offer which, based on his earlier ...Read More