Category Archives: Currencies

Jobs, Currency wars, etc.

Heaps stronger than expected: Employment Situation Highlights Today’s employment situation was heavily positive even though the unemployment rate edged up. Payroll jobs gained 257,000 in January after strong increases of 329,000 in December and 423,000 in November. December and November … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, Employment, Fed, Greece |

flow news in 2014 is bad for the Euro

So I still see all the fundamentals/trade flows favoring the euro vs the $US, with the EU running a trade surplus and the US a deficit, and low oil prices ‘helping’ the EU trade balance while ‘hurting’ the US’s. But … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, EU |

Comments on Greece

A couple of ‘fundamentals’ A default/restructure/debt reduction of any form removes euro financial assets and is a contractionary/deflationary bias that makes euro ‘harder to get’ and thereby firms the currency. Also, Greece has been running a budget deficit, which adds … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, ECB, EU |

Japan etc.

The 10 year note in Japan closes below .3%- that’s what happens when you have the largest deficit in the world… ;) And note the yen has gone from just under 80 to the $ not that long ago to … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, Japan |

Comments on crude pricing, the economy, and the banking system

Crude pricing The Saudis are the ‘supplier of last resort’/swing producer. Every day the world buys all the crude the other producers sell to the highest bidder and then go to the Saudis for the last 9-10 million barrels that … Continue reading

Posted in Banking, CBs, Comodities, Credit, Currencies, Fed, GDP, Inflation, Interest Rates, Oil |

euro update, q3 gdp update

Seems trade flows and ‘inflation’ continue make the euro fundamentally stronger even as portfolios shifting due to ECB rhetoric keep it under pressure. Should the shifting run its course, I would not be surprised dramatic appreciation. New figures released by … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, EU, GDP |

Euro vs $US

The euro is up vs the $US today in spite of near universal positioning for it to fall, including technical indicators pointing to further declines. I see lots of positives for the euro and one negative. Positives: 1.  $US went … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, EU |

today’s observations

Not much sign of any move towards higher deficits today. Just talk of more bank liquidity, which doesn’t matter, and more to weaken the euro, which doesn’t work either. Hard to say why the euro has been going down, but … Continue reading

Posted in Banking, Currencies, EU |

ECB relying export driven growth through euro depreciation

Note below that he states it’s the fx channel that the ECB is relying on to support aggregate demand. Good luck to them, it doesn’t work that way!!! From the speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Annual central … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, ECB, Trade |

Japan- currency depreciation policy ‘bad’ inflation for households, good for exporters

Japan’s household spending falls 3.0% in June July 29 (Kyodo) — Average Japanese monthly household spending fell a price-adjusted 3.0 percent in June from a year earlier to 272,791 yen. The average monthly income of salaried households came to 710,375 … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, Japan |