Currencies Archive

NY Mfg survey, Home builder’s index, oil losses, Japan, China trade, euro trade

A lot worse than expected and still deep in contraction: Empire State Mfg Survey Highlights For the seventh straight month, the Empire State report is signaling significant contraction for the manufacturing sector. The general business conditions index for February came in below low-end expectations, at minus 16.64 vs even deeper contraction of ...Read More

Apartment market tightness, Euro area trade surplus, Spain

This just keeps going up, which fundamentally tends to drive up the euro which tends to continue to be subject to said upward pressure until the trade picture reverses: Euro Area Balance of Trade The Eurozone trade surplus increased to €23.6 billion in November of 2015 compared to a €20.2 billion surplus ...Read More

Mtg prch apps, Housing starts, Industrial production, Euro trade

Yes, up vs last year’s dip, but remain depressed and have been heading south since early this year: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Application activity was little changed in the December 11 week, up 1 percent for refinancing and down 3.0 percent for home purchases. Year-on-year, purchase applications remain very high, up 34 ...Read More

Labor market conditions index, Euro and yen charts, Fed discussion

This is the Fed’s own index and it’s on the very weak side: Labor Market Conditions Index Highlights Friday’s employment report, led by a 211,000 rise in non-farm payrolls, was solid but didn’t give the labor market conditions index much of a boost, coming in at only plus 0.5 vs expectations for ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, Investor poll, Fed surveys

The crowd is not always wrong, but it’s not always right, either: Fund managers polled at the start of November have significantly hiked their allocation to equities and cut cash holdings to levels not seen since July, according to research from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Of the 200 investors managing $576 ...Read More

SNB $US reserves

Note the ‘currency allocation’ of 33% to $US. The SNB was buying euro and selling swiss francs to keep the franc from strengthening beyond 1.20 vs euro. To then get the $US exposure, they would have to sell some of their euro to buy $US. So that means, on average, that for ...Read More

Employment chart, China trade, SNB

The red line tends to drag down the blue line, often when deficit spending gets too low: Exports drop again, imports drop more, so the trade surplus grows, and the US should see more imports and fewer exports, while euro zone imports are down which adds to their trade surplus: China’s Trade ...Read More

Crude Oil, Euro, Opec Spending Cuts

So when the Saudis widened their discounts on October 5 it looked to me like they were inducing a downward price spiral that would continue until either they altered pricing or their output increased to full capacity so they couldn’t sell any more at those discounts. So far neither has happened: Fundamentally ...Read More

Truck tonnage, Philly Fed Coincident Index, ECB policy, Credit Check

Signs of stabilizing: So the ECB threatened more negative rates and QE, both placebos at best, analogous to spraying the crowd with a barrage of blanks, which nonetheless dispersed the crowd. However, with the record and growing euro area 31 billion trade surplus last month and a growing US trade deficit augmented ...Read More

Euro Trade Surplus, Euro Inflation

Trade surplus still trending higher along with deflation both make the euro ‘harder to get’ and ‘more valuable’: European Union : Merchandise Trade Highlights The seasonally adjusted merchandise trade balance returned a E19.8 billion surplus in August after an unrevised E22.4 billion excess in July. This was the least black ink since ...Read More