Category Archives: Currencies

trade anecdotes, CPI, FHFA House Price Index, New home sales, Richmond Fed, PMI

It’s the net exports, paid for by non residents selling their currency to buy euro to spend, that drives up the euro until the net exports cease and trade goes negative. And with the rigidities/J curve/etc. the move up could … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, Economic Releases, Housing |

Chicago Fed, Existing home sales

More bad new, and, again consumption down even with lower gas prices: Chicago Fed National Activity Index Highlights The economy has indeed gotten off to a slow start this year, confirmed by the national activity index which came in at … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, GDP, Housing, Oil |

QE, the dollar, and the euro, jobless claims, US trade deficit, Philadelphia Fed survey

So my story is that traders and portfolio managers worried about inflation and currency depreciation from QE caused the depreciation during those periods, covering shorts and restoring dollar weightings after QE ended, returning the dollar to where it was. And … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, Employment, GDP, Trade |

trade and the dollar/euro- supply and demand doing their thing

Note how the portfolio shifting that caused the dollar to appreciate has also caused the US trade deficit, excluding petroleum, to likewise increase. That is, it’s not wrong to say that the global portfolios shifting to dollars are getting more … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, Trade |

consumer credit, trade deficit chart

Nothing good happening here either. Looks like the jobs report was about 100,000 people taking menial jobs out of desperation again. :( Consumer Credit Highlights Consumer credit rose $11.6 billion in January vs an upwardly revised gain of $17.9 billion … Continue reading

Posted in Credit, Currencies |

Jobs, Currency wars, etc.

Heaps stronger than expected: Employment Situation Highlights Today’s employment situation was heavily positive even though the unemployment rate edged up. Payroll jobs gained 257,000 in January after strong increases of 329,000 in December and 423,000 in November. December and November … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, Employment, Fed, Greece |

flow news in 2014 is bad for the Euro

So I still see all the fundamentals/trade flows favoring the euro vs the $US, with the EU running a trade surplus and the US a deficit, and low oil prices ‘helping’ the EU trade balance while ‘hurting’ the US’s. But … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, EU |

Comments on Greece

A couple of ‘fundamentals’ A default/restructure/debt reduction of any form removes euro financial assets and is a contractionary/deflationary bias that makes euro ‘harder to get’ and thereby firms the currency. Also, Greece has been running a budget deficit, which adds … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, ECB, EU |

Japan etc.

The 10 year note in Japan closes below .3%- that’s what happens when you have the largest deficit in the world… ;) And note the yen has gone from just under 80 to the $ not that long ago to … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, Japan |

Comments on crude pricing, the economy, and the banking system

Crude pricing The Saudis are the ‘supplier of last resort’/swing producer. Every day the world buys all the crude the other producers sell to the highest bidder and then go to the Saudis for the last 9-10 million barrels that … Continue reading

Posted in Banking, CBs, Comodities, Credit, Currencies, Fed, GDP, Inflation, Interest Rates, Oil |