Author Archive

Whirlpool Results

Anecdotal support for twin themes of declining domestic demand augmented by booming export demand, and rising prices: Whirlpool’s Maytag buy pays off in 4Q by James Prichard GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. – Whirlpool Corp. said Tuesday its fourth-quarter profit climbed 72 percent, helped by its Maytag acquisition, an improved product mix and the ...Read More

Q4 Earnings Really Weren’t Too Bad — Except For Banking

Up 11% ex financials, and if you do it ex financial writeoffs and include financial operating earnings its higher than that. The risks to 2008 come from perceived risks of a general slowdown that hasn’t happened yet. They also point to the January payroll number to support their 2008 concerns. Yes, payrolls ...Read More

2008-02-04 US Economic Releases

Challenger Job Cuts Total (Jan) Survey n/a Actual 74,986 Prior 44,416 Revised n/a A volatile number that has been showing low levels of layoffs and not given much weight either way. Factory Orders (Dec) Survey n/a Actual 441,566 Prior 431,489 Revised n/a Another strong number – no sign of recession here. ♥ ...Read More

New vehicle sales

If there is going to be negative growth, this drop is a start, and I’d expect car sales to fall further from here soon. ♥ ...Read More

Updated January 31 month end report

Please excuse the mix of Bloomberg and Valance graphs. Comments welcome. Went blurry eyed trying to organize it all. Markets reacted strongly to Friday’s -17,000 non-farm payroll number. Several sources called it the first negative payroll number in 4 years. How quickly they forget the first negative number was the initial August ...Read More

2008-02-01 US Economic Releases

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) Survey 70K Actual -17K Prior 18K Revised 82K Last negative number was August – got revised up. Apart from the unrevised January number, the revised previous numbers don’t look too bad. (See following report.) Unemployment Rate Survey 5.0% Actual 4.9% Prior 5.0% Revised n/a Slight downtic. The ...Read More

3 most important numbers

From Karim: Index of aggregate hours -0.3% Diffusion index from 50.0 to 46.2 Median duration of unemployment from 8.4 to 8.8 weeks So output likely declining, more industries shedding jobs than adding, and l-t unemployed accounting for larger % of total unemployed Other notes.. Unemployment rate falls from 4.97% to 4.925%. Partially ...Read More

Microsoft/yahoo

Expect a lot more takeover activity supporting equities. Forces are stacked against ‘normal’ shareholding, as management is incented to dilute shareholders as previously discussed, and as repeatedly demonstrated during the last 6 months via dilutive converts, etc. By taking over the entire company, that risk goes away. This means that since public ...Read More

2008-01-31 US Economic Releases

Personal Income (Dec) Survey 0.4% Actual 0.5% Prior 0.4% Revised n/a Personal Income TABLE A bit better than expected, holding up reasonably well, as declining interest rates reduce interest income component. Personal Spending (Dec) Survey 0.1% Actual 0.2% Prior 1.1% Revised 1.0% Personal Spending TABLE OK number after last month’s large increase. ...Read More

Re: ECB funding Spanish mortgage banking system

(an interoffice email) Deep, Interesting! In the case of a bank failure, Spain still is the entity that would repay depositors. To get the funds Spain would somehow liquidate the failed bank. If the loss was large enough so that Spain couldn’t raise the funds to pay off the depositors (via both ...Read More