Author Archive

Re: more on receipts

(an interoffice email) On Jan 15, 2008 9:23 AM, Karim Basta wrote: > > > > US Daily Comment – Tax Receipts: How Good an Indicator? > Summary: Although Treasury income tax receipts are a popular measure of > economic activity, they are generally too noisy and susceptible to calendar > distortions ...Read More

2008-01-15 EU Highlights

EU Headlines: Same twin themes as the US, weakness and inflation: Spain Core Inflation Rises for Fifth Month on Food German Economic Growth Slowed as Sales Tax Increased German Investor Confidence Dropped to 15-Year Low French inflation at highest level since 2004 by Ben Sills (Bloomberg) In France, the euro region’s second-biggest ...Read More

Re: FF vs. LIBOR

(an interoffice email) On Jan 14, 2008 10:29 AM, Warren Mosler wrote: > thanks, continued tafs will get it to wherever the fed actually wants > it. it’s a policy rate they can administer at will. > > > > > > > On Jan 14, 2008 10:16 AM, Pat Doyle wrote: ...Read More

If it isn’t inflation, what is it?

What we used to call an ‘inflation day’ – $ down/oil up Gold through 900- if nothing else, it’s an inflation expectation indicator (not that they cause anything, just reflect it) Other metals up Grains going parabolic Stocks up also, Export driven growth means demand coming from and output going to non ...Read More

2008-01-14 EU Highlights

European News Headlines: Europe Industrial Production Falls for Second Time in 3 Months Fed beggar they neighbor policy robbing some demand. European Bonds Gain on Speculation ECB Won’t Lift Interest Rate inflation on the rise Bonello Says Inflation May Slow to 2% by End of Year He also says this will happen ...Read More

No recession, yet..

No Recession, yet.. Demand drop of 1% of GDP began over a year ago when home buying by subprime borrowers ceased.. And exports picked up the slack.And with housing as low as it is, further reductions, if any, will have minimal macro effects. Losses not that large so far, only about $100 ...Read More

NYC Tourism

Dollar weak enough to support exports: NYC hits tourism record by Samantha Gross NEW YORK (AP) – With a falling dollar sweetening the deal for international travelers, a record-setting number of tourists visited the city last year, spending an estimated $28 billion, tourism officials said Sunday. With a final count still pending, ...Read More

Indexing French wages

A bit of structural inflation being introduced: Sarkozy Plans to Index Civil Servants’ Salaries to Inflation by Helene Fouquet and Francois de Beaupuy (Bloomberg) French President Nicolas Sarkozy said he’d index civil servants’ salaries to inflation and make good on unpaid overtime hours to improve their purchasing power. “It’s a fact that ...Read More

Budget telling data

Federal budget surplus for Dec. – but wait . . . By Martin Crutsinger Associated Press WASHINGTON – The federal budget showed a record surplus for December, but for the first three months of this budget year, the budget deficit was running significantly higher than in the same period the previous year. ...Read More

2008-01-11 US Economic Releases

Trade Balance (Nov) Survey -$59.5B Actual -$63.1B Prior -$57.8B Revised n/a Exports holding up. Oil price jump and vol in aircraft shipments. December exports are key for the quarter. Import Price Index MoM (Dec) Survey 0.1% Actual 0.0% Prior 2.7% Revised 3.3% Went down continuously for years, now going up. And with ...Read More