Category Archives: GDP

CPI, Redbook Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing Index, Containers, FHA Capital, EU Car Registrations, Japan

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Part of the Fed’s mandate is to hit it’s 2% inflation target:
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Still at recession type levels:
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This is also what recession looks like:
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The anointed ‘driver of the economy’ continues to falter as previously discussed:

Housing Market Index
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Highlights
The housing market index from the nation’s home builders shows weakness, at 62 for November and missing the Econoday consensus by 2 points. And compared to a revised October, the index is down 3 points. Yet readings in the report, though slowing, remain solid and one important detail is favorable.

Of the report’s three components, future sales are down a sizable 5 points but the level is still in the seventies, exactly at 70. Present sales, which is the most heavily weighted component, fell 3 points to 67, also still a strong level.

The positive in the report is a 1 point rise in traffic, a component which, at 48 in the latest report, has been lagging badly but is getting closer to the breakeven 50 mark. Weakness in this reading has been reflecting lack of first-time buyers in the market.

Turning to regional data, the highest composite score goes to the West, at an enormously strong 77, followed by the South, at 62. Two less watched regions for new homes, the Midwest and North, trail at 59 and 52.

There are positives in this report but the decline in both future and present sales is a reminder that both starts and permits for single-family homes have been slowing. Despite the rise in traffic, this report probably pulls back the housing outlook by a degree.

October 2015 Sea Container Counts Continue to Show Trade Recession Continues

By Steven Hansen

The data for this series continues to be in contraction. The year-to-date volumes are contracting for both exports and imports. The trade sector remains in a recession.

Federal agencies don’t need ‘capital’ to function.

This is simply unspent income that reduces aggregate demand:

FHA Meets Minimum Reserve Requirement for First Time Since 2009

(WSJ) — The Federal Housing Administration, which backs low-down-payment mortgages popular with first-time home buyers, said its insurance fund’s net worth at the end of September was $23.8 billion, up from a year-earlier level of $4.8 billion. Its capital reserve ratio, which by law is required to stay above 2%, rose to 2.07%, the first time it met the threshold since the start of the agency’s 2009 fiscal year. With the private subprime-mortgage market largely gone, the agency offers some of the easiest terms available, letting borrowers with a credit score as low as 580 make a down payment of as little as 3.5%.

Passenger car registrations: +8.2% over ten months; +2.9% in October

(ACEA) — In October 2015, the EU passenger car market continued its upward trend, despite a slower rate of increase (+2.9%), marking the 26th consecutive month of growth. Demand for new passenger cars saw momentum slowing down in all major markets. Registrations in Italy (+8.6%), Spain (+5.2%), Germany (+1.1%) and France (+1.0%) kept growing, even though less strong than in past months, while the UK market declined in October (-1.1%). Across the region, new passenger car registrations totalled 1,104,868 units, also supported by growth in the EU’s new member states (EU-12).

Can’t admit fiscal works and monetary doesn’t:

Abe to call for supplementary budget topping 3tn yen

(Nikkei) — Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will direct the Japanese government to put together a supplementary budget totaling more than 3 trillion yen ($24.2 billion) next week to help shore up a flagging economy. The government is set to compile measures to cope with the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact on Nov. 25 and steps for promoting active civic engagement on Nov. 26, with both to be incorporated into the extra budget for fiscal 2015. The prime minister declined to characterize the supplementary budget as a stimulus measure, since doing so could be seen as admitting defeat on Abenomics.

Capital spending delays took toll on July-September GDP

(Nikkei) —Weak capital investment led Japan’s economy to shrink by an annualized 0.8% in the three months ended September. A 1.3% drop in capital investment was the main cause of the decline. Corporations had planned to invest a good deal this fiscal year, though the follow-through has been lacking. Machinery orders, which typically lead capital investment by three to six months, slipped 10% for the July-September quarter. But if the outlook for economic growth overseas remains hazy, more companies could put investment on hold.

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PPI, Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment, Business Sales and Inventories

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More deflation news here:

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Nothing good here, and of course sales = income, so lower sales = lower incomes.

Also, the boost to prior months from car sales looks like it’s fading:

Retail Sales
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Highlights
Retail sales slowed in October but fundamentally remain solid. Sales rose only 0.1 percent, 2 tenths under the Econoday consensus. But when excluding vehicles, which slipped back after surging in prior months, and when also excluding gasoline stations, where sales once again fell on price weakness, core sales rose a respectable 0.3 percent which hits the consensus.

And there are solid gains including for housing-related components of furniture & home furnishings and building materials & garden equipment. Nonstore retailers also show a strong gain as do restaurants.

Aside from vehicles and gas, other areas that declined are electronics & appliance stores, grocery stores, and the big category of general merchandise sales. Declines in the latter may be related to import-price effects which are deflating sales. A positive, however, is a gain for department stores which are a subset of general merchandise. Apparel sales, which are definitely being held down by import prices, were unchanged following two small declines.

Year-on-year rates really tell the story especially a respectable plus 4.1 percent rate for sales excluding gasoline stations, a component that is down 20.1 percent and has been badly skewing total sales all year. Total sales are up only 1.7 percent.

The headline is weak and year-on-year rates did ease off, including for core ex-auto ex-gas to plus 3.5 from 3.8 percent, but this report is better than it looks, showing underlying strength that shouldn’t scale down expectations for a December FOMC rate hike.

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Looks to me like the excess inventory situation has gone from bad to worse, as sales continue to lag output:

MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES September 2015 Sales.

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for September, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,320.3 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.2%)* from August 2015, but was down 2.8 percent (±0.4%) from September 2014.

Inventories.

Manufacturers’ and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,817.5 billion, up 0.3 percent (±0.1%) from August 2015 and were up 2.5 percent (±0.5%) from September 2014. Inventories/Sales Ratio.

The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of September was 1.38. The September 2014 ratio was 1.31.

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Debt and Recession, Jolts

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This shows how private sector credit deceleration is associated with recessions. It’s about the need for those spending more than their incomes to offset those spending less than their incomes. And most often private sector deficit spending decelerates some time after public sector deficit spending decelerates and fails to provide the income and net financial assets that supports private sector deficit spending.

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United States : JOLTS
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Highlights
In a positive sign for labor demand, job openings in the JOLTS report popped back up in September, to 5.526 million from a revised 5.377 million in August. Openings peaked in July at a recovery best 5.668 million. High job demand will absorb yet more slack from what is a dwindling supply of available labor, in what could precede wage inflation and become a major concern for Fed policy makers. But in a contrasting indication of worker hesitance, confidence in the strength of the labor market may be limited based on the report’s quits rate which remains stubbornly low, unchanged for a sixth month at 1.9 percent.

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Saudi statement, NFIB detail

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This means they continue with their discount policy until their entire output capacity is being sold, and then continue to sell their full output capacity at ‘market prices’. That is, they no longer want the high priced producers to benefit from their willingness to to be swing producer and support prices by not selling their full output:

Moving ahead, Opec — led by Saudi Arabia — plans to pump as much as it can towards meeting global oil demand, leaving higher-cost producers to make up the remainder.
For higher-cost producers, “$100 oil was perceived as a guarantee of no risk for investment”, said Mr Falih. “Now, the insurance policy that’s been provided free of charge by Saudi Arabia does not exist any more.”

Regarding the NFIB small business survey for October released yesterday:

GDP growth languished in Q3, and will not likely impress in Q4. The industrial sector is weakening and the small business sector has not returned to its historical role in the production of GDP and jobs. The October NFIB survey gave no indication of a resurgence in growth in the small business sector, readings remaining below average.

NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg states:

The October NFIB survey gave no indication of a resurgence in growth in the small business sector with the Index remaining below the 42 year average of 98. The labor market components might have held at historically strong levels but this time owners reported no net growth in employment, which is a significant drop from reports in the previous four months.

Profits and Wages. Earnings trends deteriorated 3 points, falling to a negative 16 percent. Far more owners are reporting profits lower quarter to quarter than higher. A seasonally adjusted net 21 percent of owners reported raising worker compensation, down 2 points from September and 4 points below the expansion high reading reached in January and May. The net percent planning to increase compensation rose 1 point to 17 percent, still strong for this recovery.

Labor Markets. Reported job creation came to a halt in October, with owners adding a net 0.0 workers per firm in recent months. Fifty-five percent reported hiring or trying to hire (up 2 points), but 48 percent reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. Fourteen percent reported using temporary workers, unchanged from September. Twentyseven percent of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, unchanged from September. A seasonally adjusted net 11 percent plan to create new jobs, down 1 point. A seasonally adjusted net 21 percent of owners reported raising worker compensation, down 2 points from the past few months. The percent of owners citing the difficulty of finding qualifed workers as their Most Important Business Problem fell 3 points to 13 percent, but still third on the list of problems behind taxes and regulations and red tape.

Profits and Wages. Earnings trends deteriorated 3 points, falling to a negative 16 percent. Far more owners are reporting profits lower quarter to quarter than higher. A seasonally adjusted net 21 percent of owners reported raising worker compensation, down 2 points from September and 4 points below the expansion high reading reached in January and May. The net percent planning to increase compensation rose 1 point to 17 percent, still strong for this recovery.

Inventory and Sales. The net percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reporting higher nominalsales in the past 3 months compared to the prior 3 months deteriorated 7 percentage points to a net negative 8 percent. Twelve percent cited weak sales as their top business problem, up 1 point. Expected real sales volumes posted a 3 point improvement, rising to a seasonally adjusted net 4 percent of owners expecting gains, a long way down from the 20 percent reading in December 2014. Overall, not a very positive outlook, but at least positive. The net percent of owners reporting inventory increases was a net negative 2 percent (seasonally adjusted), down 2 points. The net percent of owners viewing current inventory stocks as “too low” was unchanged a net negative 4 percent, as weak sales made current stocks look excessive and future sales are not expect to grow much. The net percent of owners planning to add to inventory fell 3 points to a net 0 percent, not much help for Q4 GDP growth.

Capital Spending. Fifty-eight percent reported capital outlays, unchanged from August and September. The percent of owners planning capital outlays in the next 3 to 6 months gained 1 point to 26 percent, not a strong reading historically but among the best in this expansion. Owner expectations for the economy overall appear to anticipate a continuation of “under-performance”. Investment plans remain historically sub-par, and owners have little interest in borrowing to support investment spending that promises little return. The small business sector remains in “maintenance mode”.

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Saudi Output, Mtg Purchase Apps, NY ISM, ADP, International Trade, PMI services, ISM Non-manufacturing, Motor Vehicle Sales

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If the Saudis are looking to pump more seems they have to continue to lower prices:
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Sure looks like housing still can’t get out of its own way:

MBA Mortgage Applications
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Highlights
Mortgage applications are settling down after spiking and dipping sharply in volatility tied to new disclosure rules put in place last month. Both the purchase and refinance indexes fell an incremental 1.0 percent in the October 30 week with the purchase index up a very solid 20 percent year-on-year. Rates were mixed in the week with the average 30-year fixed mortgage for conforming loans ($417,000 or lower) up 3 basis points to 4.01 percent.

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NY ISM company specific business report:
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Still working it’s way lower. This is a forecast for Friday’s BLS payroll number:
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This is a September report. I expect a drop in exports for October and an increase in imports as oil imports increase in line with domestic production declines:

International Trade
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Highlights
September’s trade deficit came in very near expectations, at $40.8 billion vs the Econoday estimate for $41.1 billion. August’s unusually large deficit is revised slightly lower to $48.0 billion. September’s goods gap came in at $60.3 billion vs last week’s advance estimate of $58.6 billion. This is offset in part by a $19.5 billion trade surplus in services that is slightly smaller than the August surplus.

Exports were solid in the month, up 1.6 percent and led by consumer goods that include artwork and jewelry. Exports of capital goods were also higher, all helping to offset a decline in exports of industrial supplies. Imports fell 1.8 percent with wide declines led by industrial supplies including crude oil followed by capital goods then autos.

The gain in exports is a positive of course and comes despite soft foreign demand which, for U.S. goods and services, is made softer by strength in the dollar. The dip in imports is good for the GDP calculation but isn’t a positive indication for domestic demand, especially given what is a favorable effect from the strong dollar.
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PMI Services Index
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Highlights
Growth in Markit’s U.S. service sector sample is slowing slightly, coming in at a final 54.8 vs the flash reading of 54.4 and vs September’s final reading of 55.1. Details are soft with growth in new business at its slowest pace since January and with backlogs down for a third straight month.

Weakness in orders in turn is pulling down 12-month expectations which are near July’s three-year low. Employment is described as modest with hiring at its slowest pace since February. Price readings are mute.

Despite the soft details, the service sector is still humming along solidly and helping to offset weakness in manufacturing.

The overall weakness in the economy began with the oil price and oil capex collapse about a year ago, and while this indicator is off it’s July highs, it seems to be holding firm, at least for now:

ISM Non-Mfg Index
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Highlights
ISM’s non-manufacturing index continues its searing pace, rising nearly 2-1/2 points to a much higher-than-expected 59.1 which exceeds Econoday’s high-end forecast by more than 1-1/2 points. Orders are robust with new orders up more than 5 points to 62.0 and backlogs unchanged at 54.5 which is very strong for this reading. Export orders are also strong, up 2 points to 54.5 and underscoring the strength of the nation’s services surplus as seen in this morning international trade report. But the highlight of the report, ahead of Friday’s employment data, is a nearly 1 point rise in the employment index to 59.2 which is one of the very strongest readings in the history of the report.

Strength is distributed broadly across industries led by transportation & warehousing, health care & social assistance, and professional, scientific & technical services, the latter a center of strength for foreign demand. The two non-service industries covered in this report are mixed with construction rising but mining, hit by low commodity prices, the only industry to report contraction in the month.

Many readings in this report are near records and follow similar readings in July and August which were also unusually strong. This report has been a consistent upside outlier but it undeniably hints at strength for employment and at a December FOMC rate hike.
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Good sales month but check out the import numbers, which don’t count for GDP:

Motor Vehicle Sales
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Highlights
Consumers really showed up in October, at least when it came to dealerships as vehicle sales held unchanged at an 18.2 million annual rate, a 12-year high and outside the Econoday top-end estimate. Import sales, specifically sales of imported light trucks, were the key to October, rising to a 3.7 million rate from 3.5 million and making up for a downtick in sales of North American-made vehicles which slipped to 14.5 from 14.7 million. Still, the 14.5 million rate is also outside the top-end estimate.

These data offer convincing evidence of consumer strength and pull forward, at least to a degree, the Fed’s rate liftoff. But the results, because they do no better than match September, do not quite point to a third straight gain for the motor vehicle component of the October retail sales report.

Domestic sales fell some:
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Atlanta Fed, German Engineering Orders, Misc News, Redbook retail sales, North Dakota, Factory orders

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Down to 1.9 for Q4, after being very close for Q1, Q2 and Q3:
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German Engineering Orders Hit by Lower Demand From China

By Nina Adam

Nov 2 (WSJ) — Germany’s VDMA engineering federation said Monday that its “plant and machinery makers are battling against global markets’ adversities.” German mechanical engineering orders slumped 13% year-over-year in September, hit by a 18% drop in foreign demand. Foreign orders from outside the eurozone were down 7% in the nine months through September from the same period a year earlier. “Companies are feeling the pinch from turbulences in China, which are also affecting other key developing markets,” said Olaf Wortmann, an economist at VDMA, which represents more than 3,000 midsize companies.

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Still depressed but a hopeful forecast, though not long ago 2.8% year over year growth would have been considered low:

Redbook
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Redbook’s same-store sales tally has been climbing, up 4 tenths in the October 31 to a year-on-year plus 1.9 percent. But the report’s commentary is mixed, saying some retailers benefited from Halloween shopping though it said the fact that Halloween fell on Saturday actually kept shoppers out of stores on Halloween itself. The report’s month-to-month reading shows no meaningful change against September. But the report’s outlook for the key shopping month of November is very strong, forecasting 2.8 percent year-on-year same-store sales growth for the month.

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Bad, worse then expected, and prior month revised lower as well:

Factory Orders
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Highlights
New orders for the export-hit factory sector fell 1.0 percent in September for the 11th decline in 14 months. Orders for durable goods, initially posted in last week’s advance report, are unrevised at minus 1.2 percent, held down in part by a downswing in civilian aircraft but nevertheless showing wide weakness. Orders for non-durable goods, pulled down by weakness for petroleum and coal products, fell 0.8 percent to extend a run of sizable declines going back to July. The factory sector has been struggling with weakness in the energy sector and especially weak foreign demand that for U.S. goods has been made weaker by the strength in the dollar.

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Health Care Expenditures, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending

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My understanding is that this series includes premiums paid for health insurance and so GDP has gotten a one time boost from from the newly insured who are now paying insurance premiums via the affordable care act. So Q4 should see another reduction and growth and a lower contribution to GDP growth:
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This kind of personal consumption collapsed with the collapse in oil prices and oil capex:
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This is for September, and is slowing as previously discussed after permits peaked in June with the expiring tax laws:

Construction Spending
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Highlights
Construction spending looks solid, up a better-than-expected 0.6 percent in September with gains led by housing components. Residential spending extended six months of strong gains with a 1.9 percent increase for a year-on-year gain of 17.1 percent which is 3 percentage points better than the rate for total construction, at 14.1 percent. New multi-family units continue to lead the residential component, up 4.9 percent for a 26.7 percent year-on-year gain, while new single-family homes rose 1.3 percent for a more than respectable year-on-year gain of 12.7 percent.

Private nonresidential construction has also been strong this year but not in September, down 0.7 percent including declines for most subcomponents especially both power and commercial. Still, the year-on-year rate for private nonresidential is plus 14.9 percent. Readings on public construction, up a total 0.7 percent in the month, are also favorable with subcomponents trending at or near double-digit year-on-year growth.

The gains in this report, especially for multi-family units, are the outcome of a spike in permits during the spring. Permits, however, have not been showing great strength in recent months, in turn pointing to moderation for what still looks to be, however, a solid construction sector.

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Collapsed when oil prices and oil capex collapsed:
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Brent Spot Chart, China, Atlanta Fed

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Looks a lot more negative since the October 5 Saudi price cuts than the futures markets. These price are more indicative of prices of physical oil vs financial portfolio activities:
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Note the lack of results of ‘monetary policy’:

China’s October factory, services surveys show economy still wobbly

Nov 1 (Reuters) — Activity in China’s manufacturing sector unexpectedly contracted in October for a third straight month, an official survey showed on Sunday, fuelling fears the economy may still be losing momentum in the fourth quarter despite a raft of stimulus measures.

Adding to those concerns, China’s services sector, which has been one of the few bright spots in the economy, also showed signs of cooling last month, expanding at its slowest pace in nearly seven years.

“As deflation risks intensify, a further RRR cut before end of this year is still possible,” ANZ said, referring to reducing the amount of reserves that banks must hold in order to free up more funds for new loans.

The official Purchasing Managers’ Index(PMI) was at 49.8 in October, the same pace as in previous month and lagging market expectations of 50.0, according to the National Bureau of Statistics(NBS). A reading below 50 points suggests an contraction.

New export orders contracted for a 13th straight month, though the sub-index for new orders – a proxy for both domestic and foreign demand – edged up marginally to 50.3, compared with September’s 50.2.

Faced with persistently weak demand, factory owners continued to lay off workers and at a slightly faster pace than in September.

As for the services sector, whose growth has helped offset persistent weakness in manufacturing, the official non-manufacturing PMI fell to 53.1 in October from September’s 53.4. Though still a solid pace of expansion, it was the lowest reading since late 2008 during the global financial crisis, a similar survey showed.

SMALL FIRMS FACING BIGGER STRESSES

Activity in small and mid-sized firms continued to contract in October, with more small firms seeing fund shortages compared to big ones, the official survey showed. Small companies account for up to 80 percent of urban employment and 60 percent of China’s GDP.

The government has cut interest rates six times since November and lowered the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves four times this year. The latest cut in interest rates and banks’ reserve requirement came on Oct 23.

Beijing has also quickened spending on infrastructure and eased curbs on the ailing property sector. The latter have helped revive weak home sales and prices but have not yet reversed a sharp decline in property investment.

Many economists had expected economic growth would bottom out in the third quarter, with a modest improvement late this year and into early 2016 as additional stimulus measures gradually take effect.

Starting out at 2.5% this quarter. We’ll see how it evolves as numbers are released:
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Rail traffic, Personal Income, Credit Check

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Rail Week Ending 24 October 2015: A Worse Week Among Bad Weeks

Week 42 of 2015 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) and monthly total rail traffic (from same month one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic contracted year-over-year, which accounts for approximately half of movements. and weekly railcar counts continued in contraction.

See how the growth rate slowed down just before year end?
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Growth peaked when oil peaked?

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Personal Income and Outlays, ECI, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment, GDP related

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Income and spending and pricing low and lower than expected:

Personal Income and Outlays
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Highlights
Inflation is not building based on the Fed’s favorite reading, the core PCE price index which inched a lower-than-expected 0.1 percent higher in September with the year-on-year rate steady and flat at only plus 1.3 percent. These results will not lift the odds for a December hike at the next FOMC.

Income and spending data also came in below expectations, at plus 0.1 percent each vs expectations for plus 0.2 percent each. Income got no boost from wages & salaries in September which were unchanged following, however, strong gains of 0.5 percent in the two prior months that underscore this morning’s employment cost index which shows pressure in the third quarter. Spending in September was pulled down by a 1.2 percent plunge in nondurable goods that likely reflects the low price of fuel. Spending on durable goods, driven by vehicles, rose a strong 0.8 percent with spending on services up a solid 0.4 percent.

Other details include a 0.1 percent decline for the total PCE price index, again an effect likely based on fuel. Here the year-on-year rate is barely over zero at plus 0.2 percent. The savings rate continues to edge higher, up 1 tenth to 4.8 percent in a gain that hints at strength for future consumer spending.

Third-quarter consumer activity slowed in September, pointing to lack of momentum for October consumer data. Still, the consumer is in charge in the U.S. economy and, given low unemployment, the outlooks for holiday spending and fourth-quarter acceleration are favorable.

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Nice move up here:

Chicago PMI
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Highlights
Volatility is not that unusual for the Chicago PMI which surged 7.5 points from September and 6.0 points over consensus to a 56.2 level that points to sudden acceleration and solid growth this month for the whole of the Chicago economy. New orders and especially production are showing strength with both at their best levels of the year. The production reading, in fact, surged nearly 20 points in a reminder of how volatile this series can be.

Inventories are also up sharply, suggesting that Chicago businesses may be ramping up for stronger output going into the holidays. Hiring fell back to neutral following three months of gains and, in another negative, order backlogs are down for an eighth straight month. And for a third straight month, prices are in contraction.

Advance indications on the October economy are mixed with a sweep of regional Fed surveys pointing to another month of contraction for the factory sector but other readings, including this one, mixed to upbeat. Still, the volatility of this report should limit its impact on the month’s outlook.

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Nothing here to push the Fed:
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Typical very late cycle pattern here:
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