Category Archives: GDP

seasonal adjustments, export reports, Atlanta Fed, Chicago Fed, PMI manufacturing, Philadelphia Fed Survey, Existing home sales, KC Fed

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Note that if/when the adjustments are changed it looks like they make Q4 and Q1 a bit higher and Q2 and Q3 a bit lower. The net adjustments are 0 for the year.

Nicole Mayerhauser, chief of BEA’s national income and wealth division, which oversees the GDP report, said in the statement that the agency has identified several sources of trouble in the data, including federal defense service spending. Mayerhauser said initial research has shown this category of spending to be generally lower in the first and the fourth quarters. The BEA will also be adjusting “certain inventory investment series” that have not previously been seasonally adjusted. In addition, the agency will provide more intensive seasonal adjustment quarterly service spending data.

My narrative goes something like this: The CB euro selling drives the price down to the point where the euro zone net exports increase sufficiently to absorb the cb selling, at which point the euro reverses as the trade flows overwhelm the selling from those portfolios and the euro then continues to rise until the current account surplus goes away:

Job creation at four-year high despite slower pace of economic growth

May 21 (Markit) — Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index at 53.4 (53.9 in April), Services PMI Activity Index at 53.3 (54.1 in April), Manufacturing PMI at 52.3 (52.0 in April), and Manufacturing PMI Output Index at 53.5 (53.4 in April). Faster growth in manufacturing was offset by a slowdown in services, though the pace in the latter merely eased slightly further from March’s eight-month high to suggest a broad-based upturn remains in place. Weaker order book growth was centred on the service sector, with manufacturing reporting the strongest inflows of new orders for just over a year, linked to improved export performance.


PMI data signals further slowing of private sector output growth

May 21 (Markit) — PMI data signals further slowing of private sector output growth () Germany Composite Output Index at 52.8 (54.1 in April), Services Activity Index at 52.9 (54.0 in April), Manufacturing PMI at 51.4 (52.1 in April), and Manufacturing Output Index at 52.7 (54.3 in April). Mirroring the trend for output, German private sector companies also signalled a weaker rise in new business. While a pick-up in construction activity and rising domestic demand were reasons behind the overall increase, some survey participants linked the slowing in the rate of growth to economic uncertainties. Meanwhile, manufacturers reported a fourth successive monthly rise in new export orders.

Recent data leaves their forecast unchanged:
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Negative and looking weak:
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Weaker here too:

PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
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Highlights
Markit’s US manufacturing sample had been far stronger than other readings on the sputtering sector but is a little less so with the May report where the index slipped slightly to a 16-month low of 53.8, 8 tenths below the Econoday consensus.

Slowing growth in new orders, including weakness in export orders tied directly to strength in the dollar, held down the May index. Another area of weakness remains the energy sector where business spending is down. Shipment growth slowed to its slowest rate so far this year.

Strength in the report is centered in employment, but this won’t last if orders continue to slow. Deliveries continue to be delayed in part by persistent bottlenecks tied to the long since resolved port strike. Costs are up but inflation remains marginal.

The manufacturing sector is having a tough spring following six prior months of slowing. Watch for the Philly Fed report coming up this morning at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Less than expected and weak:
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Less than expected and weak:

Existing Home Sales
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Highlights
Existing homes sales are not living up to springtime expectations, down 3.3 percent in April to a 5.04 million annual rate which is just below the low-end Econoday forecast. Three of 4 regions show contraction in April with the sharpest decline, minus 6.8 percent, in the South, which is by far the largest housing region. Year-on-year, total sales are still up a respectable 6.1 percent.

Another positive is a rise in supply with 2.21 million used homes on the market vs 2.01 million in March. This rise, together with the drop in sales, raises supply relative to sales to 5.3 months from 4.6 months. And another positive is a 4.1 percent rise in the median price to $219,400 which is up 8.9 percent year-on-year.

But this report in sum is a disappointment, failing to point to any building momentum. Strength in the housing sector may be switching, from existing home sales to new home sales at least based on this report compared to the historic surge earlier this week in housing starts & permits. But housing data month-to-month are always volatile and, on net, it’s too soon to decipher how strong the spring housing season is right now.
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And one last negative for today:

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
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Highlights
The early indications on May’s manufacturing activity have been slightly positive, that is until the Kansas City Fed report where the composite index is in deeply negative ground at minus 13. This is the weakest of the recovery for this reading and follows an already weak minus 7 in April.

New orders this month are deeply negative, at minus 19, as are backlog orders at minus 21. These readings, reflecting contraction for export orders and trouble in the energy sector, point to significant trouble for the region’s manufacturing activity in the months ahead.

Shipments are already in contraction, at minus 9, as is employment, at a deeply negative minus 17 that contrasts with mostly positive employment indications in other reports.

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Atlanta Fed, LA port traffic, EU trade surplus, German ZEW, housing starts, redbook retail sales

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No positive change here yet:
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This was supposed to rebound:

LA area Port Traffic Decreased in April

By Bill McBride

May 18 (Calculated Risk) — Note: LA area ports were impacted by labor negotiations that were settled on February 21st. Port traffic surged in March as the waiting ships were unloaded (the trade deficit increased in March too), and port traffic declined in April.

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported – and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation’s container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average.

On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was down 0.2% compared to the rolling 12 months ending in March. Outbound traffic was down 1.1% compared to 12 months ending in March.

Inbound traffic had been increasing, and outbound traffic had been moving down recently. The recent downturn in exports might be due to the strong dollar and weakness in China.

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

LA Area Port TrafficUsually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March (depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year).

Imports were down 2% year-over-year in April; exports were down 11% year-over-year.

The labor issues are now resolved – the ships have disappeared from the outer harbor – and the distortions from the labor issues are behind us. This data suggests a smaller trade deficit in April.
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Strong number.

Currencies with trade surplus don’t ordinarily go down…
;)

European Union : Merchandise Trade
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A bit on the weak side, to say the least, and even with negative rates and QE…
;)

Germany : ZEW Survey
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Solid improvement here. First good number in quite a while.
The 5 month average is almost back to where it was in November…

United States : Housing Starts
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Highlights
There were hardly any indications before today, but the spring housing surge is here. Today’s housing starts & permits report is one of the very strongest on record with starts soaring 20.2 percent in April to a much higher-than-expected annual rate of 1.135 million with permits up 10.1 percent to a much higher-than-expected 1.143 million. Both readings easily top the Econoday high-end forecast of 1.120 million for each. The gain for starts is the best in 7-1/2 years with the gain in permits the best in 7 years. Today’s report is an eye-opener and will re-establish expectations for building strength in housing, a sector held down badly in the first quarter by severe weather.
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Half way through May and this one isn’t bouncing back:

United States : Redbook
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Railcar traffic, Draghi statement, NY manufacturing survey, Industrial production, Consumer confidence

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Rail Week Ending 09 May 2015: Data Still Not Pretty. Rail Softness Continues.

(Econintersect) — Week 18 of 2015 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic improved, which accounts for half of movements – but weekly railcar counts goes deeper into contraction.

This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity – and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages which generally are in a weak growth cycle.

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A summary of the data from the AAR:

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported U.S. rail traffic for the week ending May 9, 2015.

For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 551,034 carloads and intermodal units, down 2.3 percent compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week ending May 9, 2015 were 273,433 carloads, down 7.9 percent compared with the same week in 2014, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 277,601 containers and trailers, up 3.8 percent compared to 2014.

Four of the 10 carload commodity groups posted increases compared with the same week in 2014. They include: motor vehicles and parts, up 8.9 percent to 18,997 carloads; petroleum and petroleum products, up 6.1 percent to 15,464 carloads; and miscellaneous carloads, up 3.6 percent to 9,220 carloads. Commodity groups that saw decreases during this one week included: coal, down 16.1 percent to 93,691 carloads; metallic ores and metals, down 12.1 percent to 23,572 carloads; and grain, down 11.2 percent to 17,959 carloads.

For the first 18 weeks of 2015, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 5,043,559 carloads, down 1.8 percent from the same point last year; and 4,679,513 intermodal units, up 1.7 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 18 weeks of 2015 was 9,723,072 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 0.1 percent compared to last year.

North American rail volume for the week ending May 9, 2015 on 13 reporting U.S., Canadian and Mexican railroads totaled 368,931 carloads, down 7.5 percent compared with the same week last year, and 350,845 intermodal units, up 3.2 percent compared with last year. Total combined weekly rail traffic in North America was 719,776 carloads and intermodal units, down 2.6 percent. North American rail volume for the first 18 weeks of 2015 was 12,681,610 carloads and intermodal units, up 1 percent compared with 2014.

Here we go. This kind of thing previously had caused the euro to fall vs the dollar. If it doesn’t happen this time there’s a serious problem brewing. And right now the euro is up on the day…

Draghi helps stocks

Aside from individual stocks, sentiment received a boost from the ECB on Friday. Draghi said Thursday that the central bank will “implement in full” its bond-buying program and it will stay in place “as long as needed.”

“While we have already seen a substantial effect of our measures on asset prices and economic confidence, what ultimately matters is that we see an equivalent effect on investment, consumption and inflation,” Draghi said, according to the text of a speech delivered in Washington.

“To that effect, we will implement in full our purchase program as announced and, in any case, until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation.”
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Empire State Mfg Survey
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Highlights
The first indication on May conditions in the manufacturing sector is soft, as indications have been all year. The Empire State index came in at 3.09, below what were already weak Econoday expectations for 5.00. Shipments look respectable at 14.94 but are way ahead of new orders, at only 3.85, and even further ahead of backlog orders which are in deep contraction at minus 11.46. Employment growth is down as is the 6-month outlook, both pointing to a lack of optimism.

Price readings in this report stand out, pointing to even less pressure than in April with input cost inflation very subdued, down nearly 10 points to 9.38, and with virtually no price traction at all for finished goods, at only 1.04.

The manufacturing sector, hurt in part by weak exports, looks to be more and more of a drag at a time when economic growth is supposed to be on a springtime rebound. Next indication on the May manufacturing sector will be next Thursday with the Philly Fed report. Later this morning the industrial production report will offer the first definitive data on the April manufacturing sector.

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This is bad too:

Industrial Production
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Highlights
Industrial production is stalling, down 0.3 percent in April for a 5th straight monthly contraction. Factories are cutting back with capacity utilization down 4 tenths to 78.2 percent. And the manufacturing component, which has been flat to negative all year, is unchanged. All these readings are at or near the Econoday low-side forecasts.

Among manufacturing subcomponents, consumer goods output fell 0.3 percent with business goods down 0.4 percent. Construction supplies rose only fractionally but at 0.1 percent the reading is the best all year (this a reminder of how weak construction and housing has been). A positive is a second strong month for auto output, up 1.3 percent on top of March’s 4.3 percent surge, but whether output increases further will depend on auto sales which, in yesterday’s retail sales report, turned lower in April.

The two other main components in today’s report show even greater weakness with mining, hurt by oil & gas, at minus 0.8 percent for the 6th contraction in 7 months and utilities at minus 1.3 percent for a 2nd straight decline.

The industrial economy remains flat and is holding down what is supposed to be the economy’s springtime bounce. The news from the factory sector, including this morning’s Empire State report, won’t be pulling forward expectations for the Fed’s first rate hike.
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Even this has suddenly broken:

Consumer Sentiment
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Highlights
Consumer confidence had been holding, as the FOMC assured us just a couple of weeks ago, at high levels, but perhaps less so now with the consumer sentiment index at 88.6 which is nearly 5 points below Econoday’s low-side forecast. Both components show weakness with current conditions down 7.2 points to 99.8 and expectations down 7.3 points to 81.5. These are the lowest readings since October and November of last year.

At the same time that confidence is going down, inflation expectations, reflecting rising gasoline prices, are going up. Expectations 1-year out are up 3 tenths to 2.9 percent while expectations 5-years out are up 2 tenths to 2.8 percent. Despite the turn higher, however, these are still low levels.

The drop in current conditions hints at softness in this month’s jobs market while the drop in expectations is a downgrade for the outlook on jobs. The hawks at the Fed have been anticipating, perhaps over anticipating, that strong consumer confidence levels would eventually translate to gains for retail sales. Retail sales have been flat along and now consumer confidence, based at least on today’s consumer sentiment report, is moving backwards.
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Of the nearly 1.6 million loan originations in Q1, 471,822 were purchase loan originations, down 25% from the prior quarter and up less than 1% from a year ago. There were 1,080,043 refinance originations in Q1, an increase of 6% from the prior quarter and 27% from a year ago.

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Lumber prices, UK pmi, West Coast Port Traffic, trade, PMI and ISM services index

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From Calculated Risk:
Right now Random Lengths prices are down about 11% from a year ago, and CME futures are down around 25% year-over-year.
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Stll positive but more recent numbers coming in worse than expected:

Great Britain : PMI Construction
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Highlights
Business activity in UK construction slowed unexpectedly quickly last month. At 54.2 the sector PMI was 3.6 points short of its March outturn and at its weakest level since June 2013. However, the April print was still well above the 50 growth mark and its decline was probably at least in part due to supply shortages.
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Note: West Coast port traffic increased sharply in March following the resolution of the labor issue in February. The workers were catching up with all the ships anchored in the harbor (now gone).

Both imports and exports rebounded in March, but imports rebounded more – and were up 36% year-over-year – whereas exports were down 20% year-over-year.

This suggests more imports from Asia in March, and also suggests the trade deficit was significantly higher in March than in February.

Well below expectations, hearing Q1 being revised down .5%, as Americans spend their gas savings on other imports from China and Japan. ;) And the growing US trade deficit/EU current account surplus fundamentally supports the euro vs the dollar.

United States : International Trade
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Highlights
First-quarter GDP, barely above zero at plus 0.2 percent, may move into the negative column on revision following a much higher-than-expected March trade deficit of $51.4 billion, the largest since October 2008. The unwinding of the port strike on the West Coast, which was resolved mid-month March, played a major role in the data especially evident in imports which surged $17.1 billion in the month as backlogs at the ports were cleared. Imports of consumer goods, especially cell phones, were especially heavy. Exports, led by aircraft, also rose but only $1.6 billion. The total goods gap in the month was $70.6 billion which is the highest since August 2008.

The gap in petroleum trade, at $7.7 billion vs February’s $8.2 billion, wasn’t a major factor in the March data as the drop in prices was offset by a rise in volumes. By country, the gap with China widened to $31.2 vs $22.5 billion in February and to $7.1 billion vs $4.2 billion for Japan. The OPEC gap widened slightly to $1.2 billion vs $0.7 billion.
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Still blaming the Easter Bunny for this:
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United States : PMI Services Index
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Uptick here so still showing growth, first glimmer of hope for a positive Q2:

United States : ISM Non-Mfg Index
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Cleveland Fed on low wage growth, Atlanta Fed Q2 gdpnow, factory orders

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Behind the Slow Pace of Wage Growth

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Factory Orders
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Highlights
Boosted by aircraft and also by motor vehicles, factory orders rose an as-expected 2.1 percent in March. March’s gain ends what were 7 straight declines as February, which was initially at plus 0.2 percent, is revised now to minus 0.1 percent. The 7 straight declines are the most striking evidence of how hard the manufacturing sector has been hit, by the strong dollar that weakens exports and also specific trouble in the energy sector due to the downturn in oil.

But in March, the sector got a big boost from civilian aircraft, an industry where big monthly swings are normal, but also from motor vehicle & parts where orders rose 6.0 percent in what is one of the very strongest gains of the recovery. Excluding transportation, however, orders were unchanged compared to only a 0.1 percent gain in February, with the latter revised down sharply from an initial reading of plus 0.8 percent.

Energy equipment rebounded 4.8 percent in the month but following a long streak of declines including an 18.5 percent drop in February. Industrial machinery was also down on the month. Other industries on the plus side include computers and defense capital goods.

Orders for capital goods in general were mixed, up only 0.1 percent on the core, which excludes aircraft, and extending their downward slope.

Other readings include a sizable 0.5 percent rise in shipments. Another plus is a small rise in unfilled orders which have been especially weak. Inventories held steady relative to sales, with the inventory-to-sales rate unchanged at 1.35.

The pop in March ends the first quarter on a positive note but the early indications on the second quarter, despite expectations of an outsized weather boost, have all been soft.
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Remember all that cheerleading last year about how NOW capex was going to pick up?
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No chance of recession?
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Car sales

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Big letdown here. More Q2 downgrades on the way.
Still waiting for the burst of consumer spending from the drop in oil prices…

United States : Motor Vehicle Sales
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Highlights
The early indications from April have mostly been weak including the first hard consumer data on the month which are vehicle sales. Vehicle sales fell 4.1 percent to a 16.5 million annual rate. This is a very solid rate but the comparison with March points unfortunately to a downtick for the motor vehicle component of the retail sales report. This is a key component of the report which has been bouncing up and down in recent months, unable to find traction as have retail sales in general.
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ISM, PMI, Consumer Sentiment, Construction Spending

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Slow start for April Manufacturing:

ISM Mfg Index
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Highlights
There’s a new unwanted wrinkle in the ISM report and that’s weakness in employment, holding down the headline index to 51.5 in April, unchanged from March. Employment has been holding strong in other reports — but not in the ISM report where the index is down nearly 2 points to a sub-50 level of 48.3 to indicate month-to-month contraction. This is the first time this reading is in contraction since May 2013 and it’s the lowest reading since all the way back in September 2009.

Other indications, however, are positive. New orders actually rose in the month, up 1.7 points to 53.5, and export orders are above 50 for the first time this year, at 51.5 for a 4.0 point gain. Production, at 56.0, is especially strong as are import orders at 54.0 for a 1.5 point gain. Prices, as in other reports, remain in contraction, little changed at 40.5.

And there’s solid breadth in the report with 15 of 18 industries showing composite growth in the month with strength in the auto industry specifically cited. This report is mixed though the decline in employment won’t be raising expectations for next week’s employment report for April.
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Goldman Analyst’s index:
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PMI Manufacturing Index
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Highlights
Markit’s sample has been reporting some of the strongest activity of any manufacturing sample, making its otherwise respectable showing at 54.1 in April, down from 55.7 in March, yet another indication of weakness in the sector. Weakness, as in other samples, is centered in exports where orders, for the first time since November, are in outright contraction, the result of the strong dollar’s depressing impact on foreign demand.

Production is the softest it’s been all year, and that of course includes the winter months which, in most data, were hit hard by heavy weather. Deliveries continue to be delayed, the result not of strong demand but, interestingly, of continued issues tied to the long resolved port slowdown on the West Coast.

This is one man one vote, not one dollar one vote, which squares this series with soft consumer spending reports:

Consumer Sentiment
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Highlights
The Federal Reserve in Wednesday’s FOMC statement described consumer confidence as strong, confirmed by today’s consumer sentiment index which came in at 95.9 for final April, unchanged from mid-month April and noticeably higher from 93.0 in final March.

The headline’s two components both show gains with current conditions at 107.0, up 2.0 points from March, and with expectations at 88.8, up 3.5 points. The former points to month-to-month strength for consumer activity while the latter points to confidence in the income outlook, specifically the jobs market.

Inflation readings are very weak in this report, reflecting no doubt the low level of gas prices which however have been on the rise in recent weeks. The 1-year outlook is at 2.6 percent, down from 3.0 percent in March, with the 5-year outlook also at 2.6 percent, down from 2.8 percent.

Fed policy makers are keeping a close eye on inflation expectations and today’s report won’t offer anything to the hawks who want to begin raising rates. And despite the strength in the overall reading, strength in sentiment has yet to translate to strength in spending.
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This is just plain bad and a downward reduction to Q1 GDP. And weaker GDP=weaker sales and incomes=that much less spending power going into Q2:

Construction Spending
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Highlights
Construction spending once again defied expectations. March construction spending dropped 0.6 percent against expectations of an increase of 0.4 percent. On the year, construction spending was up 2.0 percent, down from February’s annual increase of 2.7 percent. Both residential and public building declined. While weather can still be blamed for some of the decline, a basic weakness in the building sector was apparent.

Private residential spending dropped 1.6 percent on the month with both single family and multi-family homes declined. In addition, residential construction excluding new homes, which captures home remodeling, also declined after gains in the previous two months. Nonresidential private construction provided a ray of sunshine — it advanced 1.0 percent on gains in the office, manufacturing, and health care sectors.

Public construction was down for a third straight month to its lowest level since February 2014. State and local government spending, the much larger portion of public construction, dropped in both February and March while Federal Government construction retreated after an 8.6 percent surge in the previous month.
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Atlanta Fed, Japan and China, rail car traffic, Saudi output

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Currently a .9 forecast for Q2, well below other estimates again:
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More global deceleration:

Japan : Household Spending
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Highlights
Household spending declined for a twelfth straight month in March. On the year, spending was down 10.6 percent after sliding 2.9 percent in January. Consumption has been weak since last April when Japan raised its consumption tax by 3 percentage points to 8 percent. Spending in the most of the subcategories declined. The biggest drops were in furniture & household utensils (down 39.6 percent) and transportation (down 16.1 percent). Only education advanced, this time by 3.1 percent on the year.

Japan : PMI Manufacturing Index
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Highlights
April final manufacturing PMI slipped the below the breakeven 50 level with a reading of 49.9. The data indicated worsening operating conditions in the Japanese manufacturing sector. Manufacturing production contracted for the first time since July 2014 in April. This was underpinned by a further decline in new orders, with the rate of decline the fastest since when the higher sales tax increase was implemented in April last year. Panelists reported a fall in demand from both domestic and international clients and challenging economic conditions as the main factors behind the decline in new work.

Production contracted for the first time since July 2014, underpinned by a further decline in new orders. Meanwhile, growth in new export orders slowed to the weakest in the current 10-month sequence of expansion. On the price front, input price inflation eased to the slowest in over two years.

At 49.9 in April, the headline PMI signaled a fractional deterioration in operating conditions in the Japanese manufacturing sector for the first time in almost a year. Furthermore, the headline PMI has only posted below the 50.0 no-change mark three times in the past two years.

China : CFLP Manufacturing PMI
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Highlights
April CFLP manufacturing PMI inched up to a reading of 50.1 — barely over the 50-point level that separates growth from contraction. The result was better than expectations, with economists predicting that the reading would be a breakeven 50. The March reading was also 50.1.

Four of ten sectors recorded readings over the 50 breakeven level. They were production (52.6), new orders (50.2), supplier delivery times (50.4) and business expectations (59.5). However, new export orders, finished goods inventories, imports, input prices, raw materials inventories and employment continued to contract.

China’s economy, which has enjoyed some of the fastest growth rates in the world in the past two decades, is now slowing and policymakers recently said it will target economic growth of “around 7 percent” this year, the slowest expansion in a quarter century.

Rail Week Ending 25 April 2015: Another Bad Data Week

Econintersect: Week 16 of 2015 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic improved, which accounts for half of movements – but weekly railcar counts remain in contraction.

Saudi output remained reasonably steady indicating little change in net demand at their posted prices:
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GDP detail, EU unemployment, personal income, ECI, Jobless Claims, chicago pmi, Bloomberg consumer comfort

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Note the inventory build:
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Note the ‘bending of the curve’ for nominal spending that almost never happens:
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A bit of a disconnect between headline car sales and car sales’ contribution to GDP?
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Disposable income has ratched down twice recently- once from the recession and jump in unemployment, and again with the tax hikes:
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European Union : Unemployment Rate
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Highlights
The Eurozone labour market made limited progress in March. Joblessness fell a further 36,000 to 18.105 million but the unemployment rate held steady at 11.3 percent, a tick above market expectations.

Amongst the larger member states the national jobless rate was unchanged in France (10.6 percent) and Germany (4.7 percent) and declined another tick to 23.0 percent in Spain. However, Italy saw its rate jump 0.3 percentage points to 13.0 percent, just a couple of ticks short of last November’s record high. Top of the pile was again Greece (25.7 percent in January) while Germany remained at the bottom.

Youth unemployment was also unchanged at 22.7 percent following a downward revision to the February rate.

The income lost due to falling oil revenues might be starting to show and the growth rate remains near stall speed:

Personal Income and Outlays
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Highlights
March consumer spending rebounded 0.4 percent (and was up 3.0 percent from a year ago) from a revised increase of 0.2 percent in February. But the data suggest that people remain somewhat cautious in their spending despite months of cheaper gasoline and rising confidence. Consumer spending generates more than two thirds of GDP and is a key driver of growth. Spending on services increased 0.2 percent from the prior month. Spending on goods added 1.0 percent after three consecutive monthly declines, including a 1.8 percent increase in purchases of durable goods like trucks and washing machines that are designed to last at least three years.

Personal income was flat on the month the weakest reading since December 2013. On the year, income was up 3.8 percent.

The Federal Reserve acknowledged that the economy slowed during the winter months, but they blamed the weakness on “transitory factors.” Officials said in a statement they “continue to expect that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace.”

Personal consumption expenditures price index undershot the Fed’s 2 percent target increasing 0.3 percent in March from a year earlier, the same increase as the previous month. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, prices climbed 1.3 percent in March from a year earlier for the fourth consecutive month.
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A bit higher than expected but I attribute this to hiring getting ahead of itself as reported employment gains have been outrunning growth of output:

Employment Cost Index
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In the 12 months through March, labor costs jumped 2.6 percent, the largest rise since the fourth quarter of 2008. That is still below the 3 percent threshold that economists say is needed to bring inflation closer to the Fed’s 2 percent target.

Lower than expected and the Fed knows it shows separations and not new hires, though it has correlated to hiring historically:

Jobless Claims
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Highlights
The Fed is ready now to pull the trigger at anytime and today’s jobless claims data may have their finger a little itchy. Initial claims, not skewed by special factors, plunged 34,000 in the April 25 week to 262,000 which is the lowest level since all the way back to April 2000. The 4-week average is down 1,250 to a 283,750 level which is just below a month-ago and is also a 15-year low.
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Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
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Highlights
Bloomberg’s consumer confidence index declined for a third consecutive week to a six-week low of 44.7 as Americans took a less favorable view of their finances and the slowdowns at factories and oilfields soured attitudes among men. Sentiment among men showed one of the biggest decreases in the past four years, while confidence in the Midwest slumped by the most in more than a decade. While the Bloomberg comfort gauge cooled from an almost eight-year high reached earlier this month, it remains well above last year’s average of 36.7, which was the best since 2007.

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Index/survey review, mtg purch. apps, GDP

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MBA Mortgage Applications
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Highlights
Up 4 of the prior 5 weeks, the purchase index was unable to add new ground in the April 24 week and was unchanged. The refinance index remains soft, down 4.0 percent. Rates are very low but mostly ticked higher in the week with the average 30-year fixed mortgage for conforming balances ($417,000 or less) up 2 basis points to 3.85 percent.
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Almost 0 and below expectations even with the low deflator, also below expectations which tends to help GDP near term. This is not good, and it’s inline with the Atlanta Fed’s forecast which has been largely ignored by the cheerleaders. And surprise, looks like the drop in the price of oil was an unambiguous negative:

GDP
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BEA Release

Real gross domestic product — the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes — increased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2015, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and private inventory investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The deceleration in real GDP growth in the first quarter reflected a deceleration in PCE, downturns in exports, in nonresidential fixed investment, and in state and local government spending, and a deceleration in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a deceleration in imports and upturns in private inventory investment and in federal government spending.

The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, decreased 1.5 percent in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of 0.1 percent in the fourth. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.3 percent, compared with an increase of 0.7 percent.

Real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.9 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 4.4 percent in the fourth.

The easy comp. with last year’s weather dip helps the year over year increase:
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