Moody’s likely to downgrade Greece and Brazil buying more $

Seems no one wants a strong currency anymore, but instead wants to keep their real wages down.

So fears of a dollar crash seem again to be overblown.

Nor is there any immediate risk of inflation from excess demand.

The cost push risk from the Saudis hiking prices remains, and so price is unpredictable with demand relatively flat

The situation in Greece seems to be binary, based on political decisions.

Also markets are already discounting maybe a third of what happens if they get it wrong.
So betting one way or the other has a lower risk/reward than a few weeks ago.

US economy looking internally ok with risks remaining external- greece, china, etc.

On Thu, Apr 29, 2010 at 3:09 PM, EDWARD wrote:
BBG:
‘ Moody’s said it has previously indicated that a “multi-
notch downgrade” is likely and the specific lowering “will
depend on the level of ambition of the multi-year economic and
fiscal program.”’

BRL:
*BRAZIL’S TREASURY DOLLAR PURCHASES HINGE ON REAL STRENGTH
*BRAZIL’S TREASURY MAY DOUBLE DOLLAR PURCHASES TO PAY DEBT
*BRAZIL DOLLAR PURCHASES TO STEM CURRENCY’S RALLY, AUGUSTIN SAYS
*CORRECT: BRAZIL TREASURY MAY STEP UP DOLLAR PURCHASES
*BRAZIL SOVEREIGN FUND TO BE USED WHEN NECESSARY, AUGUSTIN SAYS
*BRAZIL SOVEREIGN FUND MAY BUY FOREIGN CURRENCY, AUGUSTIN SAYS

It appears that the sovereign fund will be used as a mechanism to affect the BRL and thus policy tool of the government from these headlines (which seems a little odd for sovereign wealth fund whose assets were acquired by foreign exchange policy implementation, unless they are talking about investing in USD assets along with USD buying). More details/clarification to follow.

GS on GREECE – INITIAL IMPRESSIONS AND MARKET

This remains the tricky part, seems:

Several key issues remain outstanding, however:

1. The budgetary and reform milestones which need to be cleared in order for Greece to receive funding have yet to be hammered out with the lenders. The statement suggests that discussions will start tomorrow and may last weeks, potentially resulting in market volatility if there are disagreements.

2. Availability and drawdown conditions have yet to be decided. Specifically, the one reached over the weekend is a political agreement and each EMU government will now need to go seek legislative approval in Parliament. Related open questions include: Where will the loans rank with respect to other existing Greek debt? Where will these loans show up in the lenders’ books (i.e., will they increase the deficit and debt)? Will they require extra funding in the capital markets?

3. Most importantly, as Erik Nielsen has commented in a note this afternoon, the issue of medium term debt sustainability remains open. It will depend on measures and reforms put in place by the Greek authorities, the response of domestic activity, and the external economic environment.

Best Regards. FUG
Francesco U. Garzarelli

Greece is offered 30bn euros loan

Yes, this is the first ‘real’ offer, with a rate and a quantity.
I heard it requires approval of all 16 member nations.

This could initially stabilize the bond markets if/when approval is discounted, with short covering in the euro as well.

The terms and conditions include IMF ‘austerity’ measures which will act to slow the economy of Greece and the entire EU, which is already dangerously weak to the point of promoting higher budget deficits through low tax revenues and high transfer payments, all of which serves to further weaken the credit worthiness of all the member nations. It also increases the euro debts of the other contributing nations. While this is a very modest amount, the implication of the same type of ‘rescue’ for the larger euro nations that might go the way of Greece is for much higher levels of stress for the remaining euro member nations presumed to be ‘strong.’

The euro should therefore fundamentally remain on the weak side as the high levels of euro national govt deficits are adding the non govt sectors holding of euro denominated financial assets, with the austerity measures likely to add to euro govt deficits and euro weakness.

Greece is offered 30bn euros loan

April 11 (BBC) — Leaders of the 16 eurozone nations have agreed to fund up to 30bn euros in emergency loans for debt-hit Greece, if the country wants the cash.

The price of the loans will be fixed using IMF formulas, and be about 5%.

Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, speaking for eurozone finance ministers, said there were no elements of subsidy in the loan proposal.

“The total amount put up by the eurozone member states for the first year will reach 30bn euros,” he said.

Mr Juncker added that the financing would be “completed and co-financed” by the International Monetary Fund.

The greece market is essentially shut. A new wave of stops-out

Greece dragging other peripherals weaker by 5-10 bps
Small bull steepening in swaps, 2s30s 1-1.5 steeper

Subject: The greece market is essentially shut. A new wave of stops-out

The greece market is essentially shut. A new wave of stops-out
getting triggered today in Greece. The tickets are all small
and electronic but all one way. The market is very illiquid
even in b/marks. In the HDAT the on the runs were quoted
in tiny at start of day now there is nothing – last looked like

GGB 4.3 03/12 (644.1bps vs core, +76.0)
GGB 6.1 08/15 (570.0bps vs core, +52.5)
GGB 6.25 6/20 (428.1bps vs core, +21.0)
GGB 4.6 09/40 (330.6bps vs core, +12.7)

the linker 2.3 30 is trading with 4points bid-offer now.

yet more on greece

Gets stranger by the day:

Broke? Buy a few warships, France tells Greece

March 23 (Economic Times) — In a bizarre twist to the Greek debt crisis, France and Germany are pressing Greece to buy their gunboats and warplanes, even as they urge it to
cut public spending and curb its deficit.


Indeed, some Greek officials privately say Paris and Berlin are using the crisis as leverage to advance arms contracts or settle payment disputes, just when the Greeks are trying to reduce defense spending.

“No one is saying ‘Buy our warships or we won’t bail you out’, but the clear implication is that they will be more supportive if we do what they want on the armaments front,” said an adviser to Prime Minister George Papandreou, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the diplomatic sensitivity.

Greece spends more of its gross domestic product on the military than any other European Union country, largely due to long-standing tension with its neighbour, historic rival and NATO ally, Turkey.

“The Germans and the French have them over a barrel now,” said Nick Witney, a former head of the European Defense Agency.

“If you are trying to repair Greek public finances, it’s a ludicrous way to go about things.”

France is pushing to sell six frigates, 15 helicopters and up to 40 top-of-the-range Rafale fighter aircraft.

Greek and French officials said President Nicolas Sarkozy was personally involved and had broached the matter when Papandreou visited France last month to seek support in the financial crisis.

FRIGATE PURCHASE

The Greeks were so sensitive to Sarkozy’s concerns that they announced on the day Papandreou went to Paris that they would go ahead with buying six Fremm frigates worth 2.5 billion euros ($3.38 billion), despite their budget woes.

The ships are made by the state-controlled shipyard DCNS, which is a quarter owned by defense electronics group Thales and may have to lay workers off in the downturn.

Greece is also in talks buy 15 French Super Puma search-and-rescue helicopters made by aerospace giant EADS for an estimated 400 million euros.

The Rafale, made by Dassault Aviation, is a more distant and vastly dearer prospect. There is no published price, but each costs over $100 million, plus weapons.

Germany is meanwhile pressing Athens to pay for a diesel-electric submarine from ThyssenKrupp, of which it refused to take delivery in 2006 because the craft listed during sea trials following a disputed refurbishment in Kiel.

Payment would clear the way for ThyssenKrupp to sell its loss-making Greek unit Hellenic Shipyards, the biggest shipbuilder in the eastern Mediterranean, to Abu Dhabi MAR, industry sources said.

ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems last year canceled a Greek order for four other submarines over the dispute, in which it said Athens’ arrears exceeded 520 million euros.

Witney, now at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said German officials were embittered by Greek behavior in the long-running dispute, as well as previous payment problems over the purchase of German Leopard II tanks.

Greek Deputy Defense Minister Panos Beglitis told Reuters the dispute was on the brink of settlement but denied the timing had anything to do with Athens’ bid to clinch German backing this week for a financial safety net for Greek debt.

“(The submarine) Papanicolis has been carefully inspected by German and Greek experts. It has been greatly improved and declared seaworthy. We will take it, sell it and make a profit,” he said in an interview.

“We are paying 300 million (euros) and we will sell it for 350 million,” Beglitis said. Witney questioned Greece’s chances of turning a profit on a second-hand submarine.

NO LINKAGE?

Asked whether big European suppliers were using the crisis to press arms sales on Athens, he said: “This has always been the case with these countries. It is not because of the crisis, there is no link.”

Beglitis said this year’s defense budget was set at 2.8 per cent of GDP, down from 3.1 per cent in 2009. Non-government sources say the real level of military spending may be higher.

“Our strategy is continuously and steadily to reduce spending. This is also in line with the Greek stability and growth program,” Beglitis said. The program, submitted to the EU, pledges to reduce the budget deficit from 12.9 per cent last year to below 3 per cent by the end of 2012.

Western officials and economists have advocated a radical reduction of the armed forces as a long-term way of reducing structural spending, but Greek officials say that would require a real improvement in relations with Turkey.

Despite warmer ties, the two countries remain in dispute over Cyprus and maritime boundaries and have sporadic aerial incidents over the Aegean Sea.

French economist Jacques Delpla said Greece could reap big savings if it moved jointly with Turkey and Cyprus to settle disputes in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean and engaged in mutual disarmament.

“Unlike Portugal or Ireland, Greece could benefit from significant peace dividends to reduce its titanic fiscal deficits,” he said.

backsliding on Greece

Merkel says aid for Greece not issue at EU summit

March. 21 (CNBC) —German Chancellor Angela Merkel says Greece does not need any financial help and that EU leaders should not make aid for the indebted country an issue at their summit in Brussels next week

Doesn’t get any clearer than that.

The moral hazard test is on.

If the eurozone uses uses its banks to buy each other’s debt behind the scenes or makes some other arrangements where financing ceases to be an issue, it may trigger a race to the bottom with regards to deficits and the euro, as the game will be ‘the national govt with the largest deficit wins.’ This is not a desired outcome.

But if they don’t move to ease financing imbalances, defaults will have the opposite, deflationary effects, and probably cause a freeze in the entire payments system.

The Eurozone Solution For Greece Is A Very “Clever Bluff”?

The Eurozone Solution For Greece Is A Very “Clever Bluff”?

The Guardian is today reporting that, after weeks of crisis, the Eurozone has agreed to what appears to be a multibillion-euro assistance package for Greece that will be finalized on Monday. Member states have apparently agreed on “coordinated bilateral contributions” in the form of loans or loan guarantees to Greece, but only if Athens finds that it is unable to refinance its soaring debt and asks for help. Other sources said the aid could total €25bn (£22.6bn) to meet funding needs estimated in European capitals that Greece could need up to €55bn by the end of this year.

Once again, however, since funding is a function of interest rates, this proposal has the appearance of a very “clever bluff”. It says nothing about how high interest rates for Greece would have to go before the Greek government is somehow declared unable to refinance, and asks for additional help. The member nations probably structured the loan package and terms this way hoping to try to draw in lenders who would rely on this member nation as a back stop when making their investment decisions. However, if this ploy fails, Greek rates will go sky high in an attempt to refinance, and as Greece asks for more help, the spike in rates will make it all the more difficult for the entire Eurozone monetary system to function. Additionally, the prerequisite austerity measures will subtract aggregate demand in Greece and the rest of the Eurozone, and, to some extent, the rest of the world as well.

I have a very different proposal. It is designed to be fair to all, and not a relief package for any one member nation. It is also designed to not add nor subtract from aggregate demand, and also provide an effective enforcement tool for any measures the Eurozone wishes to introduce.

My proposal is for the ECB to distribute 1 trillion euro annually to the national governments on a per capita basis. The per capita criteria means that it is neither a targeted bailout nor a reward for bad behavior. This distribution would immediately adjust national government debt ratios downward which eases credit fears without triggering additional national government spending. This serves to dramatically ease credit tensions and thereby foster normal functioning of the credit markets for the national government debt issues.

The 1 trillion euro distribution would not add to aggregate demand or inflation, as member nation spending and tax policy are in any case restricted by the Maastricht criteria. Furthermore, making this distribution an annual event greatly enhances enforcement of EU rules, as the penalty for non compliance can be the withholding of annual payments. This is vastly more effective than the current arrangement of fines and penalties for non compliance, which have proven themselves unenforceable as a practical matter.

There are no operational obstacles to the crediting of the accounts of the national governments by the ECB. What would likely be required is approval by the finance ministers. I see no reason why any would object, as this proposal serves to both reduce national debt levels of all member nations and at the same time tighten the control of the European Union over national government finances.

EU Says There Is No Plan to Bail Out Greece

The markets are likely to force some entity to write a check:

EU Headlines:

EU Says There Is No Plan to Bail Out Greece

Provopoulos Confident Greece Will Meet ‘Very Ambitious’ Goals

Euro Worst to Come as Greece Hammerlocks ECB on Rates

German Recovery ‘Prone to Setbacks,’ Finance Ministry Says

French Lawmaker Warns Sarkozy Against Hasty Support for Greece

Five Percent of German Taxpayers Generate 42% of Income Tax

Debt Deals Haunt Europe

Greece Said to Have Arranged Swaps With 15 Banks

Greece looks at tougher budget cuts

Greek PM rules out bailout but urges EU solidarity

EU Says There Is No Plan to Bail Out Greece

Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) — The European Union said there is no plan to bail out Greece.

“There is no such a plan,” EU spokesman Amadeu Altafaj told reporters in Brussels today. “This is a speculative scenario at this point in time.”

“I was reading the papers when I also realized that in fact that there is no such a plan,” Altafaj said. “I think that the extraordinary summit and the Ecofin said all that had to be said on this and there has never been such a request from the Greek authorities and that remains the case.”

Germany Considers Loan Guarantees for Greece, Other Euro Partners


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Looks like another trial balloon.

Might mean German CDS gets hit.

All the national govs are subject to liquidity risk.

Just like the US States

Except the eurozone debt ratios are over 10 times worse.

If the world economy is improving at a fast enough rate all they probably need to do is buy some time.

No visibility on how this gets resolved.

Germany is considering a plan with its European Union partners to offer Greece and other troubled euro zone members loan guarantees in an effort to calm market fears of a default, according to people familiar with the matter.

The proposed plan would be done within the EU framework but led by Germany. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has discussed the idea in recent days with European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet. Greece is the hardest hit of several countries, including Spain, Portugal and Ireland, that have recently seen their bonds come under pressure amid concerns that they will have difficulty repaying their debts.


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Greece update (Erik Nielsen)


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Seems to me they need Eurozone approval of any plan, along with a ‘check.’

Without the check there’s a good chance the curve continues to go vertical.

Good time to be way on the sidelines (US govt secs, USD, etc.)

From: Nielsen, Erik
Sent: Wednesday, February 03, 2010

First of all, apologies for the radio silence last night and this morning ; caused by a “technical” problem. We are back in business:

Last night Greek PM delivered an important speech to prepare for today’s publication of the European Commission’s conditional approval of their 2010 budget. It was marginally positive, but – as always – the devil is in the details, and those we don’t have yet.

There is no time set for the Commission’s statement today, but sometime around noon seems likely. In a nutshell, PM Papandreou delivered something good and something less good:

1. Most importantly, the PM appealed to the opposition for national unity, and he received guarded support from the main opposition leader Samaras. Papandreou also appealed to the social partners to accept the hardship; he didn’t really receive any assurances from that side. Also positively, Papandreou outlined further fiscal measures, aimed at securing the 4% of GDP decline in the deficit this year, even under a more pessimistic (i.e. more realistic) forecast for GDP; now seen to decline by more than 1% this year rather than by 0.3%. The additional measures were not spelled out in detail, but they seem to include further wage restrain for the public sector and indirect tax hikes.

2. On the disappointing side, Papandreou launched into the blame game – while acknowledging policy mistakes in the past, he suggested that the trouble now is also the result of speculators. On this basis, he suggested that this is a Euro-zone problem and that the Euro-zone should issue a joint Euro-bond for the benefit of Greece. This was, of course, ruled out very quickly by other Euro-zone members last night. Also, Papandreou emphasized the government’s focus on taxation of real estate owned by of-shore companies, a meagre EUR200mn revenue line in their original budget, which – in my opinion – is diverting their attention from the big and more fundamental reforms.

Stay tuned for later in the day when we hear from the EU

Erik


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