CBs Archive

WRKO Interview, GDP, Pending Home Sales, KC Fed, Corporate Profits, BOJ QE chart

WRKO Interview Higher than expected, still a bit lower year over year, and supported by heavy unsold inventory building that’s exceeding the growth of new orders, as well as an increase in net exports which is counter to all the survey information and other hard data as well. Net export reports tend ...Read More

quick macro update

It all started when the FICA tax cuts and a few of the Bush tax reductions were allowed to expire at the end of 2012, followed by the sequesters a few months later 2013. That resulted in 2013 GDP growth of a bit less than 2% or so that might have been ...Read More

Fed white paper, building permits, transport charts, Japan trade

So someone on high sees it much like I do… ;) In a white paper dissecting the U.S. central bank’s actions to stem the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, Stephen D. Williamson, vice president of the St. Louis Fed, finds fault with three key policy tenets. Specifically, he believes the zero ...Read More

Empire manufacturing, housing market index, EU merchandise trade

The lack of support from the lost oil capex continues to ripple out: United States : Empire State Mfg Survey Highlights Out of the blue, the Empire State index has plunged deeply into negative column this month, to minus 14.92 in August vs plus 3.86 in July. This is by far the ...Read More

China, Germany, Productivity, NFIB Index, Redbook, Wholesale Trade

A few thoughts: China’s US Tsy holding had been falling perhaps because they were selling $ to buy Yuan to keep it within in the prior band. Pretty much all exporting nation’s currencies have already weakened vs the $, including the Yen and Euro, so this is a bit of a ‘catch ...Read More

Greece loses the gambit

It now looks to me like Greece has lost the wrestling match. The other EU members are very sensitive to market reactions. The question was whether the EU economy needed Greece, and the answer is now looking more and more like ‘no’. Not a good position for Greece to find itself after ...Read More

Comments on Greece

So the euro is down a % or 2 because of the Greek debt drama. Generally currencies go down on debt drama when the debt is in a foreign currency and it’s feared the govt will have to sell local currency to get the fx to make the payments. For example, the ...Read More

China cuts rates, Atlanta Fed, car sale comment, Greek PM comments

As the carpenter said about his piece of wood, ‘no matter how much I cut off it’s still too short’: China’s central bank cut its benchmark lending rates by 25 basis points to 4.85 percent on Saturday, the fourth reduction since November, as it gears up to lower borrowing costs and support ...Read More

claims, producer prices, euro comments, public sector jobs

Just a reminder, claims measure those losing jobs who file for benefits, not new hires: Jobless Claims The euro has been moving higher vs the dollar, as CB selling winds down as they reach the lower limits of their reserve targets along with fundamental support from a large and growing EU current ...Read More

Chicago Fed, EU CPI

Who would have thought? Chicago Fed National Activity Index Highlights March was not a good month for the economy, an assessment confirmed by the national activity index which fell steeply to minus 0.42 vs an already weak and downwardly revised minus 0.18 in February. And the first quarter as a whole was ...Read More