2008-07-11 US Economic Releases


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Trade Balance (May)

Survey -$62.5B
Actual -$59.8B
Prior -$60.9B
Revised -$60.5B

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Trade Balance (May)

Seems to be working its way lower, but rising import prices are a moving target.
Without CBs and monetary authorities buying to help their exporters, I don’t think the rest of the world wants to accumulate $60 billion a month of financial assets, which means the USD will continue to fall and US prices will continue higher until the real trade gap falls to desired levels.

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Trade Balance Ex Petroleum (May)

Survey n/a
Actual -$26.636B
Prior -$25.724B
Revised n/a

This has come down quite a bit and should continue to fall over time.

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Exports YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 17.8%
Prior 19.6%
Revised n/a

Booming!

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Imports YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 12.5%
Prior 13.6%
Revised n/a

Working their way to lower rates of increase, even with energy prices rising.

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Import Price Index MoM (Jun)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.3%
Revised 2.6%

‘Inflation’ pouring in through the open window.

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Import Price Index YoY (Jun)

Survey 18.6%
Actual 20.5%
Prior 17.8%
Revised 18.8%

Inflation pouring in through the open window.

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U. of Michigan Confidence (Jul P)

Survey 55.5
Actual 56.6
Prior 56.4
Revised

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U. of Michigan Confidence TABLE (Jul P)

Inflation hurting confidence even as current conditions have improved some.

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Inflation Expectations 1yr Fwd (Jul P)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.3%
Prior 5.1%
Revised n/a

Fed considers this reason for alarm.

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Inflation Expectations 5y Fwd (Jul P)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.4%
Prior 3.4%
Revised n/a

Way too high for the Fed and going the wrong way.

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Monthly Budget Statement (Jun)

Survey $34.0B
Actual $50.7B
Prior $27.5B
Revised n/a

Haven’t seen the detail. This can be very volatile due to timing issues.


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2008-06-10 US Economic Releases


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2008-06-10 US Trade Balance

Trade Balance (April)

Survey -$60.0B
Actual -$60.9B
Prior -$58.2B
Revised -$56.5B

A bit of a backup due to petroleum prices but gradually getting smaller as CB’s and Monetary authorities have cut back their rate of accumulation of $US financial assets.

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2008-06-10 Trade Balance Ex Petrol

Trade Balance Ex Petrol (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual -$26.411B
Prior -$26.284B
Revised n/a

This has been quickly reversing and offsetting the higher prices paid for crude oil imports.

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2008-06-10 Trade Balance ALLX

Trade Balance ALLX (Apr)

Lots of interesting data here, as, in general, exports continue to increase at emerging market type rates.

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2008-06-10 IBD TIPP Consumer Confidence TABLE

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Jun)

Survey 40.0
Actual 37.4
Prior 40.3
Revised n/a

Inflation taking a bite into optimism.

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2008-06-11 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (June 8)

Survey -47
Actual -45
Prior -45
Revised n/a

A little better but still low due to weak equities and high inflation.


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2008-05-09 US Economic Releases


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2008-05-09 Trade Balance

Trade Balance

Survey -$61.0B
Actual -$58.2B
Prior -$62.3B
Revised -$61.7B

Better than expected.  Without foreign CBs and monetary authorities accumulating USD reserves, I expect the trade balance to fall to near zero, and the USD will probably fall until we get there.

Note that saying the dollar will fall until the trade balance goes to zero is not the same as saying the falling USD directly causes the trade gap to go to zero.  Yes, they are linked, but loosly and over longer periods of time, so this can be a choppy and ugly process as US real terms of trade continuously decline.

Exports up 15.5% year over year, though down a bit in March.

Street talking Q1 revisions will kick gdp up to the 1-1.5% range and more for Q2 with fiscal now kicking in.

Most of the data is coming out better than expected and showing some modest improvement.

Credit spreads seem to have peaked with the Bear Stearns raid.

Financial sector still being hit/disrupted with its continuing credit and liquidity issues as the Fed creeps towards removing some of the self imposed landmines in its own monetary operations procedures.

Housing may have bottomed but still muddling through at very low levels.

The rest of the economy doing reasonably well and leaving the financial sector in its wake.

Modestly rising GDP means the output gap is at least stable.

The question for the Fed is the level of GDP that corresponds to non inflationary growth – what they call the ‘speed limit’ for optimal long term GDP.

Seems hard to make the case that higher GDP growth won’t add to upward price pressures from levels already too high.

Meanwhile, consumers hit with higher food/crude prices still working but buying less as their remaining output gets exported.

Welcome to the new US export economy – looks good, feels bad, and the Fed and Tsy think the trade balance moving towards zero (less consumption more exports) is a ‘good thing’ .

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2008-05-09 Trade Balance TABLE

Trade Balance TABLE


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2008-04-10 US Economic Releases

2008-04-10 Trade Balance

Trade Balance (Feb)

2008-04-10 Trade Balance TABLE

Trade Balance TABLE

Survey -$57.5B
Actual -$62.3B
Prior -$58.2B
Revised -$59.0B

Exports still accelerating- up 2% over last month, a 26%+ annual rate, and 20.8% year over year.

Looks like an anomaly with imports, up 3.1% month over month and petroleum imports down. Very odd for non petroleum imports to be up – look for adjustments with next month’s number.

While this February number means Q1 GDP will be revised lower, the March report is likely to more than reverse this.


2008-04-10 Initial Jobless Claims since 1998

Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 5)

Survey 383K
Actual 357K
Prior 407K
Revised 410K

Back down but 4 week moving average still inching up some.

Not at recession levels yet.


2008-04-10 Continuing Claims since 1998

Continuing Claims (Mar 29)

Survey 2935K
Actual 2840K
Prior 2937K
Revised n/a

This lags a week. It has moved up over the last year, but still far from previous recession levels.


2008-04-10 ICSC Chaing Stores Sales YoY

ICSC Chain Stores Sales YoY (Mar)

Survey 0.9%
Actual -0.5%
Prior 1.9%
Revised n/a

Consumer remained weak in March – that’s what an export economy looks like.


2008-04-10 Monthly Budget Statement

Monthly Budget Statement (Mar)

Survey -$70.0B
Actual -$48.1B
Prior -$96.3B
Revised n/a

2008-04-11 Monthly Budget Statement TABLE

Monthly Budget Statement TABLE

2008-03-11 US Economic Releases

2008-03-11 Trade Balance TABLE

Trade Balance TABLE

2008-03-11 Exports YoY

Exports YoY

2008-03-11 Trade Balance

Trade Balance (Jan)

Survey -$59.5B
Actual -$58.2B
Prior -$58.8B
Revised -$57.9B

Exports up over 16.6% year over year (supports GDP) – looks like a banana republic!

Trade balance lower than expected with crude up to much. Should keep working it’s way lower all year as non residents work to reduce their rate of accumulation of USD financial assets.


IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Mar)

Survey 40.5
Actual 42.5
Prior 44.5
Revised n/a

Down, but a little bit better than expected.


2008-03-11 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Mar 9)

Survey n/a
Actual -30
Prior -34
Revised n/a

Could that be a bounce back?  Haven’t seen one in so long can’t remember….

2008-02-14 US Economic Releases

2008-02-14 Trade Balance

Trade Balance (Dec)

Survey -$61.5B
Actual -$58.8B
Prior -$63.1B
Revised n/a

Moving lower as it reflects the declining desire of non residents to accumulate $US financial assets. Three main drivers are Paulson calling CB’s who buy $ currency manipulators, the Fed pursuing what looks to the world an ‘inflate your way out of debt’ policy scaring foreigners out of holding $US financial assets, and Bush’s ideological stance discouraging many oil producers from accumulating $US financial assets. And the new fiscal package doesn’t help, either.

Strong exports continue to support GDP and pick up the slack due to weak housing.


2008-02-14 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 9)

Survey 347K
Actual 348K
Prior 356K
Revised 357K

Working their way back down – no recession here.


2008-02-14 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Feb 2)

Survey 2759K
Actual 2761K
Prior 2785K
Revised 2770K

Still at modest levels, and only a very small blip on the long term chart.


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Re: exports and the $

On Jan 28, 2008 4:26 PM, Mike wrote:
> bottom line if trade deficit shrinks via export strength that has to be
> extremely dollar bullish-which has all sorts of implications (both of
> you are saying the same thing in that respect)…

sort of. it is shrinking as they are puking $ financial assets to
people who will take them to buy our stuff. so the dollar doesn’t go
up until they use up some of their $ assets and slow down their desire
to get out of them. think of it as an inventory liquidation of $
assets held abroad that drives the dollar down far enough to be able
to sell their $ to someone who wants to buy US goods and services or
US assets.

that’s the exit channel for $ held by non residents. for the US the
process is inflationary and expansionary- good for earnings and gdp.
But the inflation keeps the US domestic real consumption lower than
otherwise.

When the ‘$ inventory liquidation’ by foreigners starts to slow the $
starts to bounce back.

warren


2008-01-11 US Economic Releases

2008-01-11 Trade Balance

Trade Balance (Nov)

Survey -$59.5B
Actual -$63.1B
Prior -$57.8B
Revised n/a

Exports holding up. Oil price jump and vol in aircraft shipments.

December exports are key for the quarter.


2008-01-11 Import Price Index MoM

Import Price Index MoM (Dec)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.0%
Prior 2.7%
Revised 3.3%

Went down continuously for years, now going up.

And with outsourcing, this represents what was previously unit labor costs.


2008-01-11 Import Price Index YoY

Import Prices YoY (Dec)

Survey 10.5%
Actual 10.9%
Prior 11.4%
Revised 12.1%

Now supporting ‘inflation’ as above.


2008-01-11 Monthly Budget Statement

Monthly Budget Statement (Dec)

Survey $50.0B
Actual $48.3B
Prior $42.0B
Revised n/a

Receipts holding up. This is a pretty good coincident indicator of GDP.


2007-12-12 US Economic Releases

2007-12-12 MBA Mortgage Applications

MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 7)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.5%
Prior 22.5%
Revised n/a

2007-12-07 Mortgage Bankers Association Purchas Index SA

Mortgage Bankers Association Purchasing Index SA

Looking very firm. Possible evidence housing may have bottomed.

Affordability is up with prices flat to down, rates down, and nominal income growing.

Yes, I’ve heard the stories about multiple applications, but even if relevant it’s been the case for several months.


2007-12-12 Trade Balance

Trade Balance (Oct)

Survey -$58.4B
Actual -$57.8
Prior $-56.5B
Revised -$58.1B

Points to higher gross exports as oil prices were higher.


2007-12-12 Import Trade Index (MoM)

Import Trade Index MoM (Nov)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.7%
Prior 1.8%
Revised 1.4%

2007-12-12 Import Price Index (YoY)

Import Trade Index YoY (Nov)

Survey 11.0%
Actual 11.4%
Prior 9.6%
Revised 9.0%

First a series of very high inflation numbers coming this week.


2007-12-12 Monthly Budget Statement

Monthly Budget Statement

Survey -$95.0
Actual -$98.2
Prior -$75.0
Revised n/a

A 17 billion December 1 payment counted for November this year as it fell on a weekend; so, only about a 10 billion over last year. When this goes up in earnest, it is coincident with a slowdown. Watch this number closely!


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