2008-04-10 Trade Balance

Trade Balance (Feb)

2008-04-10 Trade Balance TABLE

Trade Balance TABLE

Survey -$57.5B
Actual -$62.3B
Prior -$58.2B
Revised -$59.0B

Exports still accelerating- up 2% over last month, a 26%+ annual rate, and 20.8% year over year.

Looks like an anomaly with imports, up 3.1% month over month and petroleum imports down. Very odd for non petroleum imports to be up – look for adjustments with next month’s number.

While this February number means Q1 GDP will be revised lower, the March report is likely to more than reverse this.

2008-04-10 Initial Jobless Claims since 1998

Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 5)

Survey 383K
Actual 357K
Prior 407K
Revised 410K

Back down but 4 week moving average still inching up some.

Not at recession levels yet.

2008-04-10 Continuing Claims since 1998

Continuing Claims (Mar 29)

Survey 2935K
Actual 2840K
Prior 2937K
Revised n/a

This lags a week. It has moved up over the last year, but still far from previous recession levels.

2008-04-10 ICSC Chaing Stores Sales YoY

ICSC Chain Stores Sales YoY (Mar)

Survey 0.9%
Actual -0.5%
Prior 1.9%
Revised n/a

Consumer remained weak in March – that’s what an export economy looks like.

2008-04-10 Monthly Budget Statement

Monthly Budget Statement (Mar)

Survey -$70.0B
Actual -$48.1B
Prior -$96.3B
Revised n/a

2008-04-11 Monthly Budget Statement TABLE

Monthly Budget Statement TABLE