Karim writes:
Claims
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Karim writes:
| Survey | -0.2% |
| Actual | -0.3% |
| Prior | -0.2% |
| Revised | n/a |
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 0.3% |
| Prior | 1.0% |
| Revised | n/a |
| Survey | -0.1% |
| Actual | -0.2% |
| Prior | 0.2% |
| Revised | 0.4% |
| Survey | 0.7% |
| Actual | 0.6% |
| Prior | 1.0% |
| Revised | 0.9% |
| Survey | 0.1% |
| Actual | 0.2% |
| Prior | 0.2% |
| Revised | n/a |
| Survey | 1.8% |
| Actual | 1.8% |
| Prior | 1.8% |
| Revised | n/a |
| Survey | 0.5% |
| Actual | 0.3% |
| Prior | 0.5% |
| Revised | 0.6% |
| Survey | 640K |
| Actual | 631K |
| Prior | 640K |
| Revised | 645K |
| Survey | 6200K |
| Actual | 6271K |
| Prior | 6137K |
| Revised | 6138K |
| Survey | 35.0 |
| Actual | 40.1 |
| Prior | 31.4 |
| Revised | n/a |
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 39.0 |
| Prior | 30.0 |
| Revised | n/a |
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| Survey | 640K |
| Actual | 640K |
| Prior | 610K |
| Revised | 613K |
| Survey | 6120K |
| Actual | 6137K |
| Prior | 6022K |
| Revised | 6044K |
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | -22.27% |
| Prior | -23.03% |
| Revised | n/a |
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 186.56 |
| Prior | 186.39 |
| Revised | n/a |
| Survey | 4.65M |
| Actual | 4.57M |
| Prior | 4.72M |
| Revised | 4.71M |
| Survey | -1.5% |
| Actual | -3.0% |
| Prior | 5.1% |
| Revised | 4.9% |
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | -7.1% |
| Prior | -4.8% |
| Revised | n/a |
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 3.737 |
| Prior | 3.798 |
| Revised | n/a |
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| Survey | -0.5% |
| Actual | -0.1% |
| Prior | 1.0% |
| Revised | 1.8% |
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | -8.6% |
| Prior | -9.0% |
| Revised | n/a |
| Survey | -0.1% |
| Actual | 0.7% |
| Prior | 0.9% |
| Revised | 1.6% |
| Survey | 644K |
| Actual | 654K |
| Prior | 639K |
| Revised | 645K |
| Survey | 5140K |
| Actual | 5317K |
| Prior | 5106K |
| Revised | 5124K |
| Survey | -1.0% |
| Actual | -1.1% |
| Prior | -1.3% |
| Revised | -1.6% |
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | -1.5% |
| Prior | 0.6% |
| Revised | n/a |
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| Survey | 0.3% |
| Actual | 0.8% |
| Prior | -1.9% |
| Revised | n/a |
Karim writes:
| Survey | 0.1% |
| Actual | 0.4% |
| Prior | 0.2% |
| Revised | n/a |
| Survey | -2.4% |
| Actual | -1.0% |
| Prior | -0.9% |
| Revised | n/a |
| Survey | 3.8% |
| Actual | 4.2% |
| Prior | 4.3% |
| Revised | n/a |
| Survey | 620K |
| Actual | 627K |
| Prior | 623K |
| Revised | 627K |
Karim writes:
| Survey | 4830K |
| Actual | 4987K |
| Prior | 4810K |
| Revised | 4817K |
| Survey | 0.1% |
| Actual | 0.4% |
| Prior | 0.3% |
| Revised | 0.2% |
| Survey | -25.0 |
| Actual | -41.3 |
| Prior | -24.3 |
| Revised | n/a |
Karim writes:
| Feb 2009 | Jan 2009 | Dec 2008 | Nov 2008 | Oct 2008 | Sept 2008 | Aug 2008 | 6 month avg | |
| General Business Activity | -41.3 | -24.3 | -36.1 | -39.8 | -38.7 | 1.9 | -20.1 | -29.7 |
| Prices Paid | -13.7 | -27.0 | -25.5 | -26.6 | 10.2 | 32.5 | 53.0 | -8.4 |
| Prices Received | -27.8 | -26.2 | -32.8 | -11.3 | 5.0 | 15.1 | 25.1 | -13.0 |
| New Orders | -30.3 | -22.3 | -28.2 | -29.3 | -30.6 | 3.8 | -15.2 | -22.8 |
| Shipments | -32.4 | -16.7 | -29.7 | -19.3 | -17.6 | -1.3 | -6.1 | -19.5 |
| # of Employees | -45.8 | -39.0 | -28.6 | -23.8 | -19.2 | -3.2 | -4.6 | -26.6 |
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| Survey | 545K |
| Actual | 467K |
| Prior | 492K |
| Revised | 491K |
| Survey | 4483K |
| Actual | 4611K |
| Prior | 4506K |
| Revised | 4510K |
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| Survey | 558K |
| Actual | 554K |
| Prior | 573K |
| Revised | 575K |
Down a bit but 4 week average still moving up.
| Survey | 4375K |
| Actual | 4384K |
| Prior | 4429K |
| Revised | 4431K |
Down a touch, but still going parabolic.
| Survey | -40.5 |
| Actual | -32.9 |
| Prior | -39.3 |
| Revised | n/a |
Better than expected, up a touch, but still at very low levels.
| Survey | -0.4% |
| Actual | -0.4% |
| Prior | -0.8% |
| Revised | -0.9% |
Still looking soft.
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Karim writes:
Lots of numbers today- none of them real good.
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 1.5% |
| Prior | -6.2% |
| Revised | -6.2% |
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 261.60 |
| Prior | 248.50 |
| Revised | n/a |
Up a bit from very low levels.
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 1254.00 |
| Prior | 1281.20 |
| Revised | n/a |
| Survey | -3.0% |
| Actual | -6.2% |
| Prior | 0.8% |
| Revised | -0.2% |
Big fall.
Karim writes:
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | -11.7% |
| Prior | -2.5% |
| Revised | n/a |
Big fall in a longer term down trend.
| Survey | -1.6% |
| Actual | -4.4% |
| Prior | -1.1% |
| Revised | -2.3% |
Not good either.
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | -4.6% |
| Prior | -1.8% |
| Revised | n/a |
| Survey | 0.1% |
| Actual | 0.3% |
| Prior | 0.2% |
| Revised | 0.1% |
Income has held up better than expected.
And the consumer has deleveraged substantially.
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 3.3% |
| Prior | 3.2% |
| Revised | n/a |
Looking lower.
Will get a nice kick up with the coming fiscal adjustment.
| Survey | -1.0% |
| Actual | -1.0% |
| Prior | -0.3% |
| Revised | n/a |
Consumption falling even as income continues to increase.
The consumer is recharging his batteries.
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 2.3% |
| Prior | 3.5% |
| Revised | n/a |
| Survey | 3.3% |
| Actual | 3.2% |
| Prior | 4.2% |
| Revised | 4.1% |
Down some and more weak numbers to come, but the longer term trend still looks up.
| Survey | 0.0% |
| Actual | 0.0% |
| Prior | 0.2% |
| Revised | n/a |
| Survey | 2.2% |
| Actual | 2.1% |
| Prior | 2.4% |
| Revised | 2.3% |
Higher than expected but down some, and more weak numbers on the way, but still at the high end of the Fed’s comfort zone.
| Survey | 535K |
| Actual | 529K |
| Prior | 542K |
| Revised | 543K |
Remains very high.
Karim writes:
| Survey | 4080K |
| Actual | 3962K |
| Prior | 4012K |
| Revised | 4016K |
Off the highs but remain very high.
| Survey | 57.5 |
| Actual | 55.3 |
| Prior | 57.9 |
| Revised | n/a |
Back through the lows.
Karim writes:
| Survey | 441K |
| Actual | 433K |
| Prior | 464K |
| Revised | 457K |
Still sliding.
Karim writes:
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 381.00 |
| Prior | 414.00 |
| Revised | n/a |
Maybe this is why sales are falling- no new homes left for sale!
Falling sharply.
| Survey | -5.0% |
| Actual | -5.3% |
| Prior | 2.7% |
| Revised | 0.7% |
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | -40.1% |
| Prior | -34.1% |
| Revised | n/a |
Might be leveling off at very low levels.
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 218.00 |
| Prior | 221.70 |
| Revised | n/a |
Prices falling but not collapsing.
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| Survey | 2.3% |
| Actual | 1.9% |
| Prior | 1.0% |
| Revised | 0.9% |
Less than expected, and helped by a low deflator, but up nonetheless with government and exports leading the charge.
| Survey | 2.4% |
| Actual | 1.1% |
| Prior | 2.7% |
| Revised | 2.6% |
big drop in the headline deflator – need to wait for next quarter to see if it’s reversed.
From Cesar:
GDP:
| Survey | 1.7% |
| Actual | 1.5% |
| Prior | 1.1% |
| Revised | 0.9% |
Less than expected but turning up.
| Survey | 2.0% |
| Actual | 2.1% |
| Prior | 2.3% |
| Revised | n/a |
Worse than expected and still looks to be working its way higher over time.
| Survey | 0.7% |
| Actual | 0.7% |
| Prior | 0.7% |
| Revised | n/a |
As expected
Look to import prices as an indication of foreign employment costs of what we consume. They are rising rapidly.
| Survey | 393K |
| Actual | 448K |
| Prior | 406K |
| Revised | 404K |
Higher than expected, and indicate next month might be a tougher job environment.
4 week average approaching 400,000.
| Survey | 3150K |
| Actual | 3282K |
| Prior | 3107K |
| Revised | 3097K |
Not looking good at all. No sign of retreat yet.
From Cesar:
Initial and continuing claims:
jump to new cycle highs of 448k and 3,282k, respectively (no special factors noted)
the weakness in this real-time indicator seems to tell us more about current state of economy than today’s GDP reports or tomorrow’s payrolls…
| Survey | 49.0 |
| Actual | 50.8 |
| Prior | 49.6 |
| Revised | n/a |
Higher than expected.
Prices paid remains very high.
| Survey | 43.5 |
| Actual | 44.0 |
| Prior | 39.0 |
| Revised | n/a |
Higher then expected.
Prices paid remain very high.
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| Survey | 375K |
| Actual | 357K |
| Prior | 372K |
| Revised | 375K |
Whoops, no recession here – the ‘better than expected’ trend continues.
| Survey | 3110K |
| Actual | 3093K |
| Prior | 3104K |
| Revised | 3109K |
And these are now coming off as well.
The Great Repricing of Risk -‘the worst recession since the Great Depression’- is looking more like a tiny blip for the real economy?
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 6.35% |
| Prior | 5.82% |
| Revised | n/a |
Lagging indicators that shows how bad it was, probably in Q4 2007.
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| Survey | 1.8% |
| Actual | 3.0% |
| Prior | 3.6% |
| Revised | 3.5% |
And yet another better than expected number.
The recent numbers are most likely better than Fed forecasters expected as well
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