2008-07-31 US Economic Releases

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GDP QoQ Annualized (2Q A)

Survey 2.3%
Actual 1.9%
Prior 1.0%
Revised 0.9%

Less than expected, and helped by a low deflator, but up nonetheless with government and exports leading the charge.


GDP Price Index (2Q A)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 2.7%
Revised 2.6%

big drop in the headline deflator – need to wait for next quarter to see if it’s reversed.



From Cesar:


  • grew 1.9% below expectations of 2.3%
  • rebates helped consumption grow 1.5% for 1.08% contribution to growth
  • net exports added 2.42% to growth
  • inventories were drag of 1.92%
  • residential investment was down -15.6% after declining 25.1% last month and the drag was “only” .62% after subtracting over 1% from GDP the last 3 quarters…
    housing drag on GDP will diminish as decline decelerates and housing shrinks as % of total GDP


Personal Consumption (2Q A)

Survey 1.7%
Actual 1.5%
Prior 1.1%
Revised 0.9%

Less than expected but turning up.


Core PCE QoQ (2Q A)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

Worse than expected and still looks to be working its way higher over time.


Personal Consumption ALLX 1 (2Q A)


Personal Consumption ALLX 2 (2Q A)


Employment Cost Index (2Q)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 0.7%
Prior 0.7%
Revised n/a

As expected

Look to import prices as an indication of foreign employment costs of what we consume. They are rising rapidly.


Employment Cost Index ALLX (2Q)


Initial Jobless Claims (Jul 26)

Survey 393K
Actual 448K
Prior 406K
Revised 404K

Higher than expected, and indicate next month might be a tougher job environment.

4 week average approaching 400,000.


Continuing Jobless Claims (Jul 19)

Survey 3150K
Actual 3282K
Prior 3107K
Revised 3097K

Not looking good at all. No sign of retreat yet.


Jobless Claims ALLX (Jul 26)

From Cesar:
Initial and continuing claims:

jump to new cycle highs of 448k and 3,282k, respectively (no special factors noted)
the weakness in this real-time indicator seems to tell us more about current state of economy than today’s GDP reports or tomorrow’s payrolls…


Chicago Purchasing Manager (Jul)

Survey 49.0
Actual 50.8
Prior 49.6
Revised n/a

Higher than expected.

Prices paid remains very high.


Chicago Purchasing Manager ALLX (Jul)


NAPM-Milwaukee (Jul)

Survey 43.5
Actual 44.0
Prior 39.0
Revised n/a

Higher then expected.

Prices paid remain very high.


NAPM-Milwaukee ALLX (Jul)