2008-11-26 USER

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Karim writes:

Lots of numbers today- none of them real good.

MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 21)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.5%
Prior -6.2%
Revised -6.2%

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Nov 21)

Survey n/a
Actual 261.60
Prior 248.50
Revised n/a

 
Up a bit from very low levels.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Nov 21)

Survey n/a
Actual 1254.00
Prior 1281.20
Revised n/a

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Durable Goods Orders (Oct)

Survey -3.0%
Actual -6.2%
Prior 0.8%
Revised -0.2%

 
Big fall.

Karim writes:

  • -6.2% m/m
  • -4% m/m ex-aircraft and defense (after -3.2% and -2.3% prior two months)

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Durable Goods Orders YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -11.7%
Prior -2.5%
Revised n/a

 
Big fall in a longer term down trend.

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Durables Ex Transportation MoM (Oct)

Survey -1.6%
Actual -4.4%
Prior -1.1%
Revised -2.3%

 
Not good either.

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Durables Ex Defense MoM (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.6%
Prior -1.8%
Revised n/a

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Durable Goods ALLX (Oct)

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Personal Income MoM (Oct)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.1%

 
Income has held up better than expected.

And the consumer has deleveraged substantially.

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Personal Income YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.3%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

 
Looking lower.

Will get a nice kick up with the coming fiscal adjustment.

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Personal Income ALLX (Oct)

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Personal Consumption MoM (Oct)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -1.0%
Prior -0.3%
Revised n/a

 
Consumption falling even as income continues to increase.

The consumer is recharging his batteries.

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Personal Consumption YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.3%
Prior 3.5%
Revised n/a

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PCE Deflator YoY (Oct)

Survey 3.3%
Actual 3.2%
Prior 4.2%
Revised 4.1%

 
Down some and more weak numbers to come, but the longer term trend still looks up.

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PCE Core MoM (Oct)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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PCE Core YoY (Oct)

Survey 2.2%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.4%
Revised 2.3%

 
Higher than expected but down some, and more weak numbers on the way, but still at the high end of the Fed’s comfort zone.

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Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 22)

Survey 535K
Actual 529K
Prior 542K
Revised 543K

 
Remains very high.

Karim writes:

  • Initial claims only decline 14k to 529k after 80k rise in prior 4 weeks
  • Similar bounce with continuing, drop of 54k to 3962k (had risen 295k in prior 3 weeks)

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Continuing Claims (Nov 15)

Survey 4080K
Actual 3962K
Prior 4012K
Revised 4016K

 
Off the highs but remain very high.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Nov 22)

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Univ. of Michigan Confidence (Nov F)

Survey 57.5
Actual 55.3
Prior 57.9
Revised n/a

 
Back through the lows.

Karim writes:

  • New low for headline confidence, from 57.9 to 55.3
  • 5yr fwd inflation expectations unchanged at 2.9

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New Home Sales (Oct)

Survey 441K
Actual 433K
Prior 464K
Revised 457K

 
Still sliding.

Karim writes:

  • -5% m/m
  • Mths supply rise from 10.9 to 11.1

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New Home Sales Total for Sale (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 381.00
Prior 414.00
Revised n/a

 
Maybe this is why sales are falling- no new homes left for sale!

Falling sharply.

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New Home Sales MoM (Oct)

Survey -5.0%
Actual -5.3%
Prior 2.7%
Revised 0.7%

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New Home Sales YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -40.1%
Prior -34.1%
Revised n/a

 
Might be leveling off at very low levels.

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New Home Sales Median Price (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 218.00
Prior 221.70
Revised n/a

 
Prices falling but not collapsing.

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New Home Sales TABLE 1 (Oct)

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New Home Sales TABLE 2 (Oct)


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