2009-05-13 USER


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Karim writes:

Falling wage and salary income and rising savings rate continuing to take a toll on consumer spending.

Recent pick-up in gas prices also likely hurting discretionary spending.

  • April retail sales -0.4% and -0.5% ex-autos (expectations +0.2%)
  • March ex-autos revised from -0.9% to -1.2%
  • April, Ex-gas, -0.2%
  • April, Control group (feeds into PCE component of GDP), -0.3%
  • Need a very sharp rebound in May/June to prevent Q2 PCE from being negative due to combined March/April weakness.
  • Downside risks to Q2 GDP now as low as -5%

Import prices up 1.6%, -0.4% ex-petroleum and -0.5% from China


MBA Mortgage Applications (May 8)

Survey n/a
Actual -8.6%
Prior 2.0%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (May 8)

Survey n/a
Actual 265.70
Prior 264.30
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (May 8)

Survey n/a
Actual 4588.60
Prior 5169.30
Revised n/a

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Bloomberg Global Confidence (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 38.72
Prior 21.20
Revised n/a

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Import Price Index MoM (Apr)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 1.6%
Prior 0.5%
Revised 0.2%

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Import Price Index YoY (Apr)

Survey -16.8%
Actual -16.3%
Prior -14.9%
Revised -15.3%

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Import Price Index ALLX 1 (Apr)

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Import Price Index ALLX 2 (Apr)

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Advance Retail Sales MoM (Apr)

Survey 0.0%
Actual -0.4%
Prior -1.1%
Revised -1.3%

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Advance Retail Sales YoY (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual -10.1%
Prior -9.6%
Revised n/a

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Retail Sales Less Autos (Apr)

Survey 0.2%
Actual -0.5%
Prior -0.9%
Revised -1.2%

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Business Inventories MoM (Mar)

Survey -1.1%
Actual -1.0%
Prior -1.3%
Revised -1.4%

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Business Inventories YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.8%
Prior -3.6%
Revised n/a


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2009-04-14 USER


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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Apr 14)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.4%
Prior -0.3%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Apr 14)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.8%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Apr 14)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.9%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Apr 14)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.9%
Prior 0.5%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Apr 14)

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Producer Price Index MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.0%
Actual -1.2%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

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PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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Producer Price Index YoY (Mar)

Survey -2.2%
Actual -3.5%
Prior -1.3%
Revised n/a

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PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Mar)

Survey 4.0%
Actual 3.8%
Prior 4.0%
Revised n/a

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Advance Retail Sales MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.3%
Actual -1.1%
Prior -0.1%
Revised 0.3%

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Advance Retail Sales YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -9.4%
Prior -7.9%
Revised n/a

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Retail Sales Less Autos (Mar)

Survey 0.0%
Actual -0.9%
Prior 0.7%
Revised 1.0%

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Business Inventories MoM (Feb)

Survey -1.2%
Actual -1.3%
Prior -1.1%
Revised -1.3%

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Business Inventories YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -3.5%
Prior -1.7%
Revised n/a


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2009-03-12 USER


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Advance Retail Sales MoM (Feb)

Survey -0.5%
Actual -0.1%
Prior 1.0%
Revised 1.8%

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Advance Retail Sales YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -8.6%
Prior -9.0%
Revised n/a

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Retail Sales Less Autos (Feb)

Survey -0.1%
Actual 0.7%
Prior 0.9%
Revised 1.6%

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Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 7)

Survey 644K
Actual 654K
Prior 639K
Revised 645K

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Continuing Claims (Mar 7)

Survey 5140K
Actual 5317K
Prior 5106K
Revised 5124K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Mar 7)

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Business Inventories MoM (Jan)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -1.1%
Prior -1.3%
Revised -1.6%

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Business Inventories YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.5%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a


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