2009-04-30 USER


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Karim writes:

  • Initial claims -13k to 631k; continuing claims up another 133k (up every week this year) to 6271k
  • Suggests another 650-700k drop in payrolls and rise in ue rate from 8.5% to 9% for April employment report
  • Those numbers will in turn cause the data we received today on incomes and wages for March, to worsen from already historically weak levels.
  • Personal income -0.3% m/m and +0.3% y/y
  • Wage and salary component of income -0.5% m/m and -1.2% y/y (prior all-time low was -0.3% y/y)
  • Personal spending -0.2%. Q1 profile for real personal spending= +0.9% in Jan, +0.1% in Feb, and -0.2% in Mar. This will create a challenge for the PCE component of GDP for Q2.
  • ECI up 0.3% q/q and 2.1% y/y in Q1, both all-time lows
  • Chicago PMI for April up from 31.4 to 40.1
  • Looks like national ISM should bounce to about 39-40 tomorrow after 36.3
  • Fed comments yesterday seem to echo what I heard from ECB/BOE: Recent bounce in PMIs seem unrelated to prospects for recovery in late 2009/early 2010.


Personal Income MoM (Mar)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.3%
Prior -0.2%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.3%
Prior 1.0%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income ALLX (Mar)

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Personal Spending (Mar)

Survey -0.1%
Actual -0.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.4%

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PCE Deflator YoY (Mar)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 1.0%
Revised 0.9%

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PCE Core MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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PCE Core YoY (Mar)

Survey 1.8%
Actual 1.8%
Prior 1.8%
Revised n/a

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Employment Cost Index (1Q)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.5%
Revised 0.6%

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Employment Cost Index ALLX (1Q)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 25)

Survey 640K
Actual 631K
Prior 640K
Revised 645K

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Continuing Claims (Apr 18)

Survey 6200K
Actual 6271K
Prior 6137K
Revised 6138K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Apr 25)

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Apr)

Survey 35.0
Actual 40.1
Prior 31.4
Revised n/a

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NAPM Milwaukee (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 39.0
Prior 30.0
Revised n/a


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