[Skip to the end] Guess it wasn’t as bad as most of the doomsday crowd thought? They never give sufficient credit to the automatic stabilizers and fiscal policy in general. I suppose that were understood there would have been a … Continue reading
[Skip to the end] The problem is suboptimal output and employment which is evidence of a lack of aggregate demand. Less important what caused the drop in aggregate demand The end of the subprime expansion in 2006 reduced the … Continue reading
[Skip to the end] Highlights Europe Manufacturing Recession Worsens in December Nowotny Says ECB’s Liquidity Measures Need Time to Take Effect Right, time to wait for a US fiscal response large enough to help the eurozone as well as the … Continue reading
Best guess: The jobless recovery that morphed into the full employment recession now appears to be over with today’s jobless claims numbers leaning in the same direction as other data released earlier this week. That does not mean the issues with … Continue reading
Yes, Fisher is on record as the lead inflation hawk. If he’s right and it turns out Bernanke cut rates into a 70’s style inflation Fisher has to be a leading candidate for Fed Chairman. Much like when Volcker replace … Continue reading
Looks like the US full-employment recession is spreading: UK jobless rate falls to 5.2 percent in latest quarter The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom in the last quarter of 2007 fell to 5.2 percent, down from 5.4 percent in … Continue reading
No Recession, yet.. Demand drop of 1% of GDP began over a year ago when home buying by subprime borrowers ceased.. And exports picked up the slack.And with housing as low as it is, further reductions, if any, will have … Continue reading
Leveled off well above pre-Covid levels, and were held down by falling gasoline prices- no recession here: Adjusted for CPI/inflation: This was falling from the post-Covid fiscal collapse but has since recovered with the rate hikes:
Employment growth remains strong as rate hikes continue to contribute to a now rising federal deficit that is supporting growth, contrary to Fed expectations. This leads to more hikes intended to soften growth and inflation that in fact support growth … Continue reading
Remains in positive growth mode: No recession indication here- this is a forecast for Friday’s employment report: My take is at the July meeting with President Biden the Saudis agreed to bring prices down in return for various favors. The … Continue reading